Posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:53 PM PDT by Norman Bates
Rasmussen Reports conducted five state telephone surveys in partnership with Fox News Channel on September 7, 2008. The surveys were conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. A total of 500 Likely Voters were interviewed in each state using the Rasmussen Reports automated telephone survey methodology (see www.RasmussenReports.com for details).
The margin of sampling error for the full sample in each state poll is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Caution should be used in interpreting subsets of the data as such results will have an even larger margin of sampling error. It is anticipated that larger sample sizes will be used later in the election season which will allow for a more detailed examination of demographic distinctions.
(snip)
Additionally, there were state specific timing issues in three of the five states. In Colorado, the city of Denver hosted the Democratic National Convention Colorado less than two weeks before the survey was conducted. In Florida, the survey was conducted as Hurricane Ike was approaching. In Virginia, the survey was conducted the day after Tropical Storm Hanna raced through the state.
It is not clear what, if any, impact these state-specific timing issues may have on the data.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Virginia
McCain 49%
Obama 47%
Florida
McCain 48%
Obama 48%
Colorado
Obama 49%
McCain 46%
Pennsylvania
Obama 47%
McCain 45%
September 7, 2008
500 likely voters
MoE +/- 4.5%
*** EXCELLENT NEWS !! ***
NOTE: It’s not a super large sample. This might have been better served with a sample of 600 or so.
The results are encouraging except Colorado. Florida is a bit close for comfort.
Florida is surprising to me...though I think once Lieberman and Rudy get down there they will seal the deal....
I will trade CO and VA for Michigan.
Great! The OH in particular could be Hugh ;-)
CO will see the light as the styrofoam pillars come down...
Tied in Florida is excellent news?
but for obama to come out of the convention in Denver with only a 2pt lead is not good news for him....
Two WOWs. Ohio and FL. The others may be WOWs as well, but I haven’t been keeping up. I thought McCain was ahead in FL by a couple of percent. Is the FL polling post GOP convention?
IMHO....FL, OH, VA must win...will be down to the wire...
I guess we know where the campaign $$$ will be spent...
We'll have to wait another week or so to get a feel for the true state of the race.
Florida is safe.
No worries.
I know. I think the state polls will lag a week behind with the McCain bump.
Ohio - I think this is 3 recent polls which show McCain ahead there by 5-10 points. Looks like Ohio is moving from leans McCain, to probable.
Michigan and Pennsylvania both trending toward McCain the last few weeks.
Florida tied has me surprised as most other recent polls show McCain ahead there. Could be a bad sample, or some reaction to Palin?
??? CO is a reliably red state . Did they poll only in the Denver/Boulder metro area ?
Actually encouraging considering they just finished the convention there.
Florida is a bit close for comfort.
Only if they project Obama as the winner before the polls close ....
I would say overall these polls are good news. I really don’t think we are tied in FL. There is a 4.5% margin of error at work.
Encouraging cuz Florida is always close but Oh is slipping to almost out of play for Obama. If this happens Obama will have to go on defense is Penn and other states he has by close margins.
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