Posted on 08/25/2008 4:08:59 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
There will be some element rioting no matter who wins or loses...screw ‘em.
Hopefully a couple of weeks after the GOP convention we can see McCain move into the lead for the first time.
Just add Virginia and Ohio to McCain's side, and he's only 10 electoral votes short of victory.
| Week | GOP Electoral Votes |
Probability of 270 |
|---|---|---|
| 7-Jan | 241.05 | 20.18% |
| 14-Jan | 235.29 | 14.70% |
| 21-Jan | 234.76 | 14.66% |
| 28-Jan | 236.58 | 15.44% |
| 4-Feb | 236.26 | 15.41% |
| 11-Feb | 237.25 | 16.43% |
| 18-Feb | 230.61 | 12.69% |
| 25-Feb | 233.56 | 15.44% |
| 3-Mar | 234.54 | 16.27% |
| 10-Mar | 240.26 | 22.49% |
| 17-Mar | 244.58 | 24.60% |
| 24-Mar | 249.73 | 28.50% |
| 31-Mar | 252.18 | 30.87% |
| 7-Apr | 248.97 | 27.60% |
| 14-Apr | 249.24 | 27.62% |
| 21-Apr | 247.86 | 25.60% |
| 28-Apr | 251.65 | 29.06% |
| 5-May | 250.84 | 28.07% |
| 12-May | 252.31 | 29.25% |
| 19-May | 248.73 | 25.99% |
| 26-May | 250.15 | 27.10% |
| 2-Jun | 248.98 | 26.46% |
| 9-Jun | 247.87 | 26.81% |
| 16-Jun | 248.41 | 26.06% |
| 23-Jun | 233.92 | 15.76% |
| 30-Jun | 234.84 | 16.21% |
| 14-Jul | 237.43 | 19.14% |
| 21-Jul | 231.61 | 14.15% |
| 28-Jul | 233.21 | 15.18% |
| 4-Aug | 234.45 | 16.45% |
| 11-Aug | 242.62 | 21.56% |
| 18-Aug | 246.64 | 25.20% |
| 25-Aug | 248.30 | 25.59% |
For comparison, the results of 20,000 simulations of another model based on Rasmussen state-by-state polls as of 25-Aug are: GOP Electoral Votes = 253.91, Probability of 270 = 21.71%. The sensitivity of the Rasmussen state-by-state polls is such that a 1.25% reduction in Obama polling and a 1.25% increase in McCain polling results in 281.77 Electoral Votes for McCain, with a 74.33% chance of winning.
do you know what the most recent polls are saying regarding OH and PA?
Here is the history of Rasmussen state polls, at the end of each month.
| Week | Ohio McCain |
Ohio Obama |
|---|---|---|
| 29-Feb | 42% | 41% |
| 31-Mar | 46% | 40% |
| 30-Apr | 47% | 40% |
| 31-May | 45% | 44% |
| 30-Jun | 44% | 43% |
| 31-Jul | 46% | 40% |
| 25-Aug | 45% | 41% |
| Week | Pennsylvania McCain |
Pennsylvania Obama |
|---|---|---|
| 29-Feb | 39% | 49% |
| 31-Mar | 44% | 43% |
| 30-Apr | 44% | 43% |
| 31-May | 43% | 45% |
| 30-Jun | 42% | 46% |
| 31-Jul | 42% | 47% |
| 25-Aug | 40% | 45% |
-PJ
The Left Wing media wants you to believe the voting is over.
That is very misleading because the bets adjust right until minutes before election day. So, yes the final mumbers are fairly accurate but that does not give any credence to numbers this far out.
All of these states are 10% or less away from being moved into the McCain column.
I don't know about the other states, but McCain recently said that the Colorado River Compact in the West should be renegotiated, and his stock in Colorado started to drop. I have heard no end of comments from people wondering if he "gets" it.
Colorado already doesn't get to use all of it's water allocation, and renegotiating the Compact would automatically mean less water to the state and less economic development. It would cause severe economic strain.
Maybe not coincidentally, the water would be going to Arizona, McCain's home state. California would get some of it, too.
Bob Schaffer, a fellow Republican who is running for the Senate was quick to disown McCain on the issue. He said: "“I made some statement on the order of, ‘over my cold, dead, political carcass’, and talked about how this is only real guarantee and protection that we have against more politically powerful downstream and thirsty states and to renegotiate this, to use another context, that would be the equivalent of a lamb having a discussion with a pack of wolves about what’s going to be on the dinner menu,” From here *pops*.
Here's more from the Pueblo Chieftain *pops*, which gives a bit more background.
If McCain wants to win Colorado, he needs to stop taking it totally for granted.
What I wrote was not misleading at all, unless you snip out the following to make it appear so:
You mangled what I wrote as far as what was "misleading". Go re-read it.
I quoted everything that you wrote. On the other hand, you sliced up my response AGAIN to make it appear to say something you could attack.
I can see that I'm wasting my time with you. Forum rules prevent me from posting what I'd really like to say to you.
If I understand Intrade a contact doesn’t cost much. Depending on how many contracts are out there, a few folks could move the percentage anyway they want.
However, the important part is the outstanding number of contracts. For the state-by-state electoral votes, the total volume is pretty low, especially in comparison with the contracts betting on the outcome of the general election.
The battleground states have the highest volume, but even those could be temporarily swung one way or the other by someone with enough money to burn. However, they would soon swing back, when someone seizes the opportunity to make some money.
Again, the trend (over weeks and months) is what is important. At the moment, the absolute numbers are not useful, especially for a close election.
People look at REAL POLLS and then determine how to bet. If the real polls show a trend over weeks or months, the money bet will be a reflection of those polls. IT IS NOT A LEADING INDICATOR. Only the ignorant use these betting indicators as a predictor.
You are so correct, hence this thread is crap........
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