Much of the Rocky Mountains are in play. New Mexico and Colorado will be the toughest states to hold, Nevada will be somewhat less so.
The Dim publically stated strategy this time around was to peel AZ, CO, NM and NV away from the GOP. They total 29 votes, more than FL, 27, by a bit and more than Ohio, 20, by a good bit. Additionally this is a growing part of the country unlike many of the blue states.
Clearly NM is the easiest of this group for them to get as it went Gore in 2000 and was very close to Bush 2004. Then the GOP nominated a Senator from AZ which probably messed up this plan a bit. Still it is important for McCain to hold AZ, CO, NV and hopefully NM.
Over the past decade, Mason-Dixon has consistently been the best at state-polling. If it says that McCain is up by 7% in NV, then he likely has a lead of around 7%.
If McCain is up 7% in NV, I would think that he’d be up by at least as much in CO, and would be up by a couple in NM.
We won’t be able to hold Iowa and New Mexico. We have to go all out to keep Colorado. Maybe we can flip NH but its not worth the EVs.