[fieldmarshaldj]

I don’t want to diminish what’s being done down there, since as they say, you’ve got to start somewhere, but the money issue and demographics remain a problem (for Col. West in the former, for Dr. Thorpe in the latter, as well as former). Ron Klein will have an obscene amount of money to buy his reelection with and I wouldn’t be surprised if he outspends Col. West by a 10-to-1 margin, and there’s going to be almost no way to overcome that sort of advantage in a general election. West may make it to 40%+, but it’s going to be nearly impossible to close that gap. Add to the fact there is no critical mass of anger at the Democrat Congress and that’s one more reason we’re going to fare poorly in November unless the equation is changed (as it is, I only expect the former Mark Foley seat to flip back to us in FL, but even that is no guarantee).

In the case of Dr. Thorpe, he may have to turn out upwards of 125k voters to upend Hastings in that seat, and that sort of turnout will be practically impossible, especially with no money.

There’s another FL Black Republican running against freshman Kathy Castor in the 11th, Eddie Adams, Jr., which is a rematch election from ‘06 (but Adams was obliterated by a 70-30% margin).

We have to worry about holding what we have in FL, and the Dems are making a serious play for Lincoln Diaz-Balart’s seat with ex-Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The Dems will be flush with cash and looking to pick off seats like this.

[Yomin Postelnik]

I hear you, but there's a lot to be said for on the ground campaigns. They've often been successful. In 22, West has been having tons of fundraisers out of state and in 23, Hastings doesn't have much cash on hand and voters are fed up. Thorpe and West can also point to the inaction of Hastings and Klein on gas prices (other than that whole party previously wanting to tax gas even further). They're key players in blocking sensible energy legislation and that's about all they've done. That issue resonates with voters here and like '94, these two districts may well be carried on voter sentiment. But most importantly, both those candidates can do wonders to draw minority and middle class voters to the GOP, not just because they're minorities. Mainly because of their tremendous platform and their character. We can't play a game of defense. Doing so is disastrous. By playing offense we help the GOP image and automatically the shaky seats become safer.