Posted on 08/06/2008 2:55:54 PM PDT by dennisw
Euro seen easing to $1.50 in six months, $1.44 in a year * 10 of 61 see euro at $1.60 or higher in next 6 months * Euro forecasts range from $1.48-$1.61 in 3 months, $1.35-$1.63 in 12 By Nigel Davies
LONDON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The euro has probably already hit its last record high against the dollar in this cycle and will move gradually lower as oil prices fall and euro zone economic growth stalls, a Reuters poll of analysts found.
The common currency took a hammering in the second half of July and slid to a six-week low in early August from a record high above $1.60 last month.
With crude oil prices down nearly $30 from a record above $147 a barrel in mid-July, and forecasts of zero growth in the euro zone economy in the second quarter, the euro's peak may well have been reached.
This doesn't seem far-fetched as the euro climbed about 95 percent against the dollar from trough to peak over the past eight years, from a low of $0.8225 in October 2000.
The Reuters poll of 61 strategists taken Aug. 4-6 showed the euro hovering around the current $1.54 mark over the next three months, before retreating to $1.50 in six months and $1.44 a year from now.
Those longer-term forecasts have not changed much in the past month despite increasing pessimism on the euro and talk of a recession in the euro zone.
"It's clear that the euro has peaked, but the idea it will move immediately sharply lower is probably overdone," said Michael Klawitter at Dresdner Kleinwort. He forecast the euro at $1.53 in three months and $1.35 in a year.
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
Yeah baby!
oil down
natural gas down
gold down
Euro down
US Dollar up!
We’ve helped the Euro long enough. Time to kick it down now.
I beg to differ with you KCM. A higher valued dollar on world currency markets usually corresponds with lower oil prices. Some argue that the price hikes are in part, to compensate for the lower dollar. But a large component of core inflation is transportation and fabrication costs, both of which are intimately related to the price of oil. With the price of oil headed into the 85 to 110 USD range, there will be lower core inflation in the US. I think a lower Euro will follow from some of the abysmal economic and real estate reports from countries like Spain and Ireland, just to name two recent examples of Eurozone decline.
No. A strong dollar means the dollar buys more. Prices for goods are deflated. A weaker Euro means the Euro will buy less and prices in Europe become inflated.
At the same time a strong dollar means that goods made in the US become more expensive elsewhere. A weaker Euro means it becomes cheaper for us to buy European goods.
With the rising dollar we Americans will be able to buy more imported goods, but there will be less demand for our exports. Since we have such a huge trade deficit, the strong dollar helps us more than it hurts us.
If the Chinese Yuan's value rose in comparison with the dollar it would likely hurt them more than it helped. That's why they keep they don't let their currency float completely independently of the US Dollar.
Any other suggestions to the rise is pablum and hogwash.
! Ping ! to post #7 for a nice little chuckle
ROTFLMAO!
OK, so the US president has a lot of power. Positions are all well and good but it's congress that makes the laws and raises money, and it's the courts that rule on compliance. Her point is that the president is not omnipotent and there's no point in saying we're moving to Canada if Obama's elected because it won't wash.
America is powerful, stable, a tremendous force for good, and not even an Obama presidency can change that.
---where's my coffee...
;^)
Well aren’t you special? [pat on head and gregarious tussle of hair]
Truthfulness is all about character.
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