Missouri was Democrat, I say it is a Republican lean now. The legislature is now the most GOP it has ever been, probably in 135+ years, and the federal level the most Republican since the early 1940s.
Talent’s loss in a bad GOP year is not a solid indicator of a trend. He never had a strong hold on his seat, and McCaskill had won statewide by wider margins than he (and remember he lost for Governor in 2000 as well).
Nixon is the strongest Dem in the state, and his election, too, wouldn’t indicate a trend, either. If, however, you start seeing Congressional race losses (we’re as strong there as we were pre-’06) and erosions of the GOP majority, that would be strong indications of a Dem trend.
Lastly, I don’t expect Obama to carry the state. He’ll carry STL & KC, but the rest of the state will go for McCain enough to overcome any monkey business.
I've enjoyed your analysis of MO politics on this thread and look forward to hearing more during the upcoming campaign season. Keep me in mind if you happen to "ping" other Missourians to key developments in the future. Thanks!