Exclusive: Israel’s air maneuver did not simulate possible Iran strike strategy

DEBKAfile’s Western military sources do not believe that if Israel does attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it will resort to the old-fashioned aerial blitz tactic employed in 1981 for bombing Iraq’s Osirak reactor. They therefore challenge the US officials’ conclusion that Israel’s aerial exercise in conjunction with the Greek Air Force over Crete in early June was in fact a rehearsal for Iran.

What was demonstrated was the Israeli Air Force’s capability for deploying a large aerial force of more than 100 warplanes and helicopters for long-distance operations. The distance from Israel to Crete was indeed roughly equal to the distance to Iran’s uranium enrichment plant at Natanz.

Israel has already displayed its ability to strike a nuclear site by the attack on the Syrian-North Korean plutonium reactor in northern Syria on September 6, 2007.

But these military sources argue it would be sheer recklessness for Israel to send so large a part of its air fleet for a repeat of the Israeli attack on Iraq without first demolishing Iran’s air defenses.

In the attack on Syria, Israel was able to disarm by electronic means the Russian-made air defense batteries guarding its reactor. The same systems protect Iran’s nuclear sites. It must be assumed, however, that Iran and the Russian manufacturers learned a lesson or two from the way Israel silenced the batteries in Syria, although Israel too will have added new gadgetry.

Those Western military sources also deduced from the Israeli aerial exercise eastern Mediterranean that its war planners must have taken stock of the punishing fallout a war operation against Iran would trigger.

Therefore, rather than consigning a large air fleet to Iranians skies, Israel’s war planners are likely to first use large numbers of missiles to demolish Iran’s nuclear facilities and air defense batteries. Some may be delivered by air from a distance outside the range of Iranian fighter craft (most of which are outdated and in bad shape), others from Dolphin submarines.

They calculate that the moment Iran is attacked, not only will it retaliate, but all hell will break loose on Israeli borders. Iran’s terrorist stooges, Hizballah will let loose from Lebanon, Hamas from the Gaza Strip and the Syrian air and missile forces go into action from the north. The Israeli Air Force will be vitally needed to protect the population and sufficient aircraft must therefore be kept back for the home front.

Given Tehran’s multiple reprisal capability and the limits to which the Israeli Air Force can be stretched operationally at one time, the IDF may well decide to deal with the Hizballah and Hamas short-range rocket infrastructure as well as the Syrian Air Force before going into action against Iran..

In this sense, DEBKAfile’s military experts note, the decision to strike Iran’s nuclear sites is tightly bound up with preventive action against the menaces closer to home, Hamas at the very least.

MK Tzahi Hanegbi, chairman of the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee said in an interview Saturday, June 21, on Day Three of the Gaza truce, that a major operation to demolish Hamas’ war machine will be unavoidable at some point. He urged the formation of a national unity government to enlist the country's best brains and resources He urged the formation of a national unity government to enlist the country's best brains and resources for the tough decisions ahead.

IMHO The air “exercise” was a practise run to test training and general capability and a fall back option in case needed. You cannot do something like this - if ever tactically part of an overarching strategy - without adequate and hands on preparation.

There is the strong, very strong likelihood this was a disinformation tactic to divert attention or explain strikes from aircraft carriers.

Israel has enough missiles to soften Iran’s defences and take out many of them, BUT I can see (Debka or not) that they are much more likely to destroy the closer threat of Hamas and Hezbollah to blunt retaliation responses. And Gaza.

And we seem to forget the SMALL, limited radiation nukes that Israel can launch on Iran and not risk so mamy aircraft other than for housekeeping efforts later to mop up remnants of the Revolutionary Guards, Bassiji, Ghods etc.

Iran only has at most a half dozen or so nukes on Shahab 3 missiles and hopefully intel exists to their likely location and thus urgent destruction. Rather than anti-missile efforts by Israel.

I believe Europe, though concerned by this jump ahead in their plans, will still prefer an Iran without nukes and without Mullahs to what is brewing both inside Iran and inside their own countries and will back the play. Probably from Afghanistan and Iraq. The US air base in Herat can reach anywhere it wants and our aircraft carriers are in the region.

India and Turkey are unlikely to become involved unless China and Russia step into the fray. Then we have to see on which side they land.

Everyone, however, will be busy with terror and suicide attacks on soft targets throughout the world and inside the USA, CAnada and Europe.

Which should then firm up an approved, massive “ retaliation” reaction from the populace of the USA and the EU. That’ll be the end of phase two of the story.

Phase three depends on how much courage remains within the Islamic Jihadists after they taste a huge dose of REAL power from the West. And potentially extensive immigration problems.

We will certainly have frustrated, spiteful soft target attacks but with the aforementioned events, reactions to the perpetrators will not be what Obama and Liberals preach so naively today. We will not talk negotiation and appeasement.

For the USA, we are likely to start shale oil refinement, coal to oil and other fuel acquisition. Drilling too by them as everyone gets fed up with the aftermath.

Lots of wounds to like all rond but far fewer than if we stand pat. We face change but not what Obama envisages - a Marxiat-Islamist USA country partially under sharia law.

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