Posted on 06/04/2008 12:26:38 PM PDT by Clive
A year ago, there was no global food crisis; now the topic is on everybody's lips. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warns 36 nations are at risk of instability because of surging food prices; the World Bank says 100 million are threatened with poverty.
The truth is that strains in the global food system have been developing for years, but many -- including the FAO, host of a food summit in Rome this week -- until recently ignored or downplayed them. Demand for grains is growing, fed mainly by the millions of Asians who are joining the middle class annually and adding protein -- from grain-fed animals -- to their diets.
Now people fret about declining grain inventories and prices that have doubled in three years; riots have broken out, and fertilizer costs are soaring. This spring, rice-producing nations led by Vietnam slapped export restrictions on this staple for billions. And, this week, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon reminded all that food production must rise by 50% by 2030 to feed two billion extra people.
A good rule is that when everyone panics, it's time to not panic. Evidence abounds that many of the extreme recent issues are temporary.
The U.S. Department of Agri-culture in May forecast higher production of wheat, rice and oilseeds in 2008-09, and rising grain stocks. Farmers are reacting to high prices by planting more. Fertilizer makers are ramping up capacity.
The rice crisis is no longer critical: Vietnam expects to lift its export ban by July; Cambodia, another big exporter, is doing likewise; and rice futures for July delivery are trading in Chicago 24% off their April peak.
The recent crisis has many parents, notably the slew of protectionist policies that have made agriculture one of the most un-business-like businesses in the world (naturally, politicians and farm lobbyists blame speculators). Shedding these distorting policies would be a good start, if governments could ever return to the Doha trade talks that were set to address this very topic.
But there are 100 other, simple solutions that could be adopted to ensure the world is better prepared to feed itself. Last month's International Fertilizer Industry Association conference in Vienna highlighted some solid ideas.
Nothing did more to expand the world's ability to feed itself than the "Green Revolution" of the 1960s, when nations in Asia and Latin America dramatically increased crop yields by using fertilizer, better harvesting technology and sturdier seeds.
Sub-Saharan Africa desperately needs its own Green Revolution; crop yields haven't budged since the 1960s and farmers there use almost no fertilizer, steadily depleting their croplands of nutrients and creating what Norman Borlaug, the Nobel Prize-winning father of the Green Revolution, calls "an environmental, social and political time bomb."
At least, African nations recognize there is a problem, recently pledging to increase spending on agriculture. The fertilizer industry, meanwhile, supports a voucher system, by which governments or donors can subsidize fertilizer costs for farmers. One such program in Malawi has been a success.
Meanwhile, two-thirds of the world's 1.1 billion poorest people live in rice-growing Asian countries, where post-Green Revolution crop yield growth has slowed to 1% per year, says the International Rice Research Institute. With better basic crop management, yields could increase by one to two tonnes per hectare. Investment in technology, roads and irrigation and research into better-growing rice varieties could essentially fix supply issues.
Even simple changes to how fertilizer is made can have an impact. The International Fertilizer Development Center says that by using briquets of urea fertilizer -- rather than pellets -- and placing them by rice roots, the nitrogen releases more slowly, resulting in 89% less waste and 83% more nutrient uptake.
This is encouraging. Like any business, agriculture could benefit from greater investment, efficiency and research, to the benefit of its customers. If there is anything to be gained from the food crisis, it is for governments to realize they can be part of the solution, by letting the agribusiness live up to its name.
ssilcoff@nationalpost.com
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I don't have an actual opinion yet on whether or not this "crisis" is real. I have, however, noticed the strange coincidence that it seems to have cropped up right when the global warming alarmism was starting to get firmly debunked.
Correct, no food shortage exists, at least in the US or Europe. I have “inside knowledge” on this. Food companies just see an opening for upping prices, laying the blame on the price of gas, and laughing all the way to the bank. Not that I’m complaining. About the bank part that is.
This is more propaganda from people who want to lead and direct our lives for us. They have other good ideas, like pumping CO2 into the earth, driving little sh*tbox cars, etc.
Weird coinkidink, eh?
Mrs Rainman and I have 6 trays (72 plants per tray) of plants started, waiting to go into the ground. We have just dedicated a 10 x 50 section of yard as our veggie garden, and we have another 40 x 100 section that we will probably transition next year into fruit, and possibly more veggie. We also have a section where we could put a coop in ... have not decided yet. Long and short of it is, food is getting too expensive to depend on someone else to supply it.
I now have 40 fruit trees planted on my land, and I just got the parts to build several raised planting beds, and permission to build things like rabbit hutches and a root cellar.
A year or so ago I also joined a forum called Selfsufficientish, the people there have lots of tips for becoming more self-sufficient even if you live in the city. Its at http://www.selfsufficientish.com/forum/ if anyone is interested, although I should warn you the forum is mostly greenies.
my whole backyard is only like 60’ x 25’ and the dog runs around back there and we play etc. veggies would get crushed and what about the bugs down here.
Yep, must be the time of year when grants and other free money is due out to study the next “crisis”.
Club of Rome, The Population Bomb, Global Warming. As soon as we debunk one, up pops another.
It's a whack a mole.
The left can't get power by consensus - their core groups hate each other. They use terror.
Starving to death is more terrifying and uglier than death by global warming.
They have no shame.
I put my tomatoes out on what is usually the very ALST day of frost possibility.
It snowed the next day. I lost 4 different heritage strains that day. i hope that soneone else has some, or they are forever gone.
DAYUM!
Which strains?
I’m away on vacation right now and remember only “Black Krim” as one of the varieties.
I still have seeds, so next year I will be less aggressive in hardening them off. They don’t stay outside until 3 days after the latest recorded frost, just to be safe.
I was quite upset when I saw the snow April 30!
I erred, as I did have more seeds than I originally thought. I’ll just have to be extraordinarily cautious next year.
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