[tobyhill]

80,000 barrels a day difference on a world market that eats 80,000,000 barrels a day ain’t going to make a bit of difference in the price. We can’t expect other countries to sacrifice their long term future for ours when we won’t even use our own resources.

[R W Reactionairy]

The significance is the year over year decline and the primary cause of the decline. Cantarell, the second or third largest oilfield in the world as measured by recent production is going down hard because it is depleted.

Unless Mexico starts a serious push now, it will cease to be a net exporter within ten years. The good news is that they appear to have additional resources they can tap. The bad news is that unless the Mexican constitution is changed, all the new work will need to be managed and owned by PEMEX.

[thackney]

Pemex has been going downhill for a few years. In 2004 they had an average production of 3.85 MMBPD. It is their own future they have sacrificed by using oil as a cash cow to fund government programs instead of investing for future production. Same problem as Venezuela.

[saganite]

The issue here is not the amount of oil in the world market but the decline of the major source of govt revenue for our southern neighbor. Mexican govt derives 40% of it’s revenue from PEMEX and budgets basically nothing to run the company. They are effectively killing the goose that lays their only budgetary egg and a bankrupt country to the south will be a huge problem for us.