Replies

I think it’s about 50/50 for the Senate seat, but I have no idea what’ll happen with a third party candidate. For the sake of full disclosure, I have personal issues with Norm Coleman, so part of me wants him to lose, but obviously having a liberal dunce like Franken isn’t what I want either.

If you go back and look at the stats for the 6th race in 2006 (I’m sure you’ve got ‘em), the combined total for the DFL and IP candidate that year were higher than Bachmann’s. The Independence candidate from 2006 is running as the DFL candidate this year. If he can hold onto both his votes and the DFL votes, he’ll win. She’s way over the top with some of her rhetoric on social issues, not the kind thing that sells well in Minnesota.

I know the 3rd district quite well - I grew up in Edina, so its my home district. This is one of the few authentic swing districts in the country, and the DFL’s been creeping up bit by bit. If they continue at that rate, they’ll win this year.

I don’t really think that Obama will win by 20 points, but I think he’ll win by more than Kerry, which I recall was about 10 points.

"I think it’s about 50/50 for the Senate seat, but I have no idea what’ll happen with a third party candidate. For the sake of full disclosure, I have personal issues with Norm Coleman, so part of me wants him to lose, but obviously having a liberal dunce like Franken isn’t what I want either."

Unfortunately, with the current crisis, we can't even afford to lose the mediocre RINOs (especially when we stand to lose at minimum, 3, and as many as 10 Senate seats). I really don't care for the RINO up for reelection in my state, either. He'll be handily reelected because the Dems aren't challenging him, so I can afford to cast a protest vote by leaving that race blank. If it was seriously challenged, it would put me in a quandary like '06 when I equally detested the RINO who had bought the nomination. As it was, he ended up being the only new Republican Senator elected that cycle (Corker of TN). I think ultimately Franken has too much baggage to put himself past Coleman, and Coleman doesn't have that kind of baggage, nor as much as Rod Grams did in 2000.

"If you go back and look at the stats for the 6th race in 2006 (I’m sure you’ve got ‘em), the combined total for the DFL and IP candidate that year were higher than Bachmann’s."

Actually, no. She got a smidge over 50% of the vote (151k to 150k for the combined DFL & IP candidates).

"The Independence candidate from 2006 is running as the DFL candidate this year. If he can hold onto both his votes and the DFL votes, he’ll win."

Actually, no. The IP candidate was John Paul Binkowski in '06. You're confusing him with Elwyn Tinklenberg. Tinklenberg ran in the '06 DFL primary and dropped out after he lost the party endorsement to Patty Wetterling. He was considered a stronger general candidate, however. The problem is that Tinklenberg is not the only one in the race, as there is an IP candidate in the race as well, and Bachmann is already the incumbent, so it's going to be difficult to dislodge her with 2 opposing candidates.

"She’s way over the top with some of her rhetoric on social issues, not the kind thing that sells well in Minnesota."

I'm afraid I find her practically perfect in her stances. I would kill to have someone of her calibre representing me, unfortunately I'm in a rodent district with a former so-called moderate liberal whom went moonbat since he relocated to this district, and it hasn't gone Republican since President Ulysses Grant's 1872 reelection. Our failure to embrace solid Conservative values (both Social and Economic) is precisely why we're losing our grip. Running to the left never works and kills us for the long run. That's why the party has died in parts of the country.

"I know the 3rd district quite well - I grew up in Edina, so its my home district. This is one of the few authentic swing districts in the country, and the DFL’s been creeping up bit by bit. If they continue at that rate, they’ll win this year."

I do think we may hold it, albeit by a very narrow margin, but perhaps tied to the performance of the Presidential candidates.

"I don’t really think that Obama will win by 20 points, but I think he’ll win by more than Kerry, which I recall was about 10 points."

Actually, it was only 3% (51-48%). It was even narrower in 2000 (Gore-48%; Dubya-46%, with Nader getting 5%). McCain actually has the potential to outperform him there if he plays his cards right. If he does outright carry MN, that will be a helluva shocker, since no Republican Presidential candidate hasn't carried it since Nixon in 1972 (although Reagan carried 5 out of the 8 Congressional districts in 1984).