The view from the ground is very different. The DFL still largely dominates politics in this state; people think it’s becoming a swing state due to a strong year for the GOP in 2002 (which had a lot of unusual factors), but I think the 2006 showed pretty clearly this state hasn’t strayed much from its roots. We will likely lose the Senate seat, and we will very likely lose the House seat in the 3rd district. There’s even a decent chance we’ll lose the 6th district. I think it’s going to be a wipeout in Minnesota next year. I’ve seen polls that have Obama beating McCain by over 20 points.
We won’t the lose the Senate seat against Franken, so we’ll have to disagree there. If we didn’t lose the 6th as an open seat in 2006, I don’t believe we’ll lose it this year. Michele Bachmann is a fantastic Congressmember. The 3rd district candidate looks fairly decent against a Dem opponent of whom has never won office, but I haven’t seen the polling data there. Unless McCain totally tanks, I find it exceptionally hard to believe he loses MN by 20% (not even Bob Dole lost by that much, you’d have to go back to Goldwater for that). I think more likely it will be by no more than 5%. If this supposed appeal to disaffected Hillary Dems is to believed, he may even have a halfway decent shot of winning the state (although I wouldn’t put good money on that right now).