I agree that a 3-man race helps Coleman. I think he’s actually quite likely to lose in a two man race against Franken. However, don’t forget that it’s more likely to be Barkley than Ventura, who I think would actually have a realistic shot at winning this seat.
Given all the scrutiny now of Franken, I find it highly unlikely he could beat Coleman in a 2-man race. Franken has to watch his butt in the DFL primary, he may not get the nod. Barkley has no chance of winning in a 3-way (or in any way — it’s unlikely he’d get more than 15-20% of the vote under any circumstances — when he actually mounted campaigns for the Senate in the ‘90s, he maxed out at 7%). He’d be nothing more than a stand-in for Ventura and would divide Coleman’s opposition. The DFLers better pray that Ventura or Barkley doesn’t run, because if they do, Coleman won’t have to worry about a thing.