Posted on 04/22/2008 2:49:51 PM PDT by Red Steel
Exit polls have shown that the contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama has produced deep divisions among Democratic constituencies.
It looks something like tribal warfare. Whites have voted, if you average the results from the states, 53 per cent to 39 per cent for Clinton; blacks, 80 per cent to 17 per cent for Obama; Latinos, 58 per cent to 39 per cent for Clinton; Asians, in California (the one primary state where they're numerous enough to gauge), 71 per cent to 25 per cent for Clinton.
The differences in voting by the young, overwhelmingly for Obama, and the elderly, overwhelmingly for Clinton, are as large as any I can remember in either a primary or general election. Upscale voters are heavily for Obama; downscale voters are heavily for Clinton.
As the contest has continued, increasing percentages of Clinton and Obama voters say they wouldn't vote for the other candidate against John McCain.
But the exit polls don't show another tribal division, one that emerges when you examine the election returns by county and congressional district. In state after state – from New Hampshire and Michigan to Texas and Ohio – Obama runs unusually strongly in counties with large universities. Academics – and I include here those who choose to live in university towns as well as those actually in or teaching school – seem to find Obama particularly appealing.
Also, Obama runs unusually well in many state capitals – Concord, Lansing, Tallahassee, Atlanta, Nashville, Santa Fe, Dover, Jefferson City, Sacramento, Trenton, Madison, Columbus, Austin – which of course have unusual concentrations of public employees (and in some cases big universities, as well).
Clinton's highest percentages come in counties with large numbers of Latinos and what I call Jacksonians. You can see the latter in counties in what is loosely called Appalachia – southwest Virginia, southern Ohio, the north end of Georgia, non-metropolitan Tennessee, northern Alabama, northeast Mississippi, all of Arkansas, southern Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, east and central Texas.
These are lands that were settled by colonial era immigrants from northern England, Scotland and northern Ireland and their descendants, who thronged down the Appalachian chain and then, like their heroes Andrew Jackson and Sam Houston, kept going southwest.
Clinton's strong performance among Jacksonians may reflect her positive appeal (it certainly does in Arkansas), but it also seems to reflect a distaste for Obama. Buchanan County, Va., which borders West Virginia and Kentucky, voted 90 per cent for Clinton and 9 per cent for Obama.
What's behind these sharp divisions? You could sum it up by saying that Jacksonians are fighters and academics (and public employees) are not. Jacksonians fought fierce battles against Indians as they moved southwest; they have always made up a disproportionate share of the American military (and were on both sides in the Civil War).
As historian David Hackett Fischer writes in Albion's Seed, they believe in natural liberty – I'll leave you alone if you'll leave me alone, but if you attack my family or my country, I'll kill you. Academics are, to say the least, lightly represented in the American military, and in economic terms they tend to compete with the military for public dollars. They seek honour for the work of peace as fiercely as Jacksonians seek honour for the feats of war.
Barack Obama notes again and again on the campaign trail that he spoke out against going to war in 2002 and calls for withdrawal from Iraq, though on terms that he leaves hazy and vague. This suits academics (Obama used to teach at the University of Chicago Law School) – and many journalists with similar mindsets – just fine. It's in line with their portrayal of American soldiers as victims, not heroes.
Hillary Clinton from the beginning of the year has portrayed herself consistently as a fighter, on the campaign trail if not in Iraq, and has done best when she kept fighting while her campaign seemed on the brink of collapse. Her story about being under fire in Bosnia turned out to be untrue, but it is true that we have seen her rebound from adversity multiple times over the last 15 years.
Polling suggests that the Democratic nominee may not be able to count on the losing candidate's tribes in November. Academics and young people and blacks may not turn out in extraordinary numbers for Clinton, as they have for Obama, and the upscale may prefer McCain to a tax increase.
Similarly, Jacksonians, the elderly, the downscale and Latinos may prefer the very Jacksonian McCain to Obama. All of which should worry the super-delegates who must determine who wins the Democrats' tribal war. Michael Barone is principal co-author of The Almanac of American Politics, published every two years.
It appears that Operation Chaos is going to be a total victory.
If it weren't for Limbaugh and his Operation Chaos followers the democrats would never have had this problem.
If you believe that, I can sell you swamp land in Florida.
Operation Chaos, meat-grinder to the Democrat party.
Woo, hoo, hoo!
I live in the “Glorius Peoples Demokratic Republic of Chapel Hill” and it is full of Obama supporters...aka...Vladimir Illyich’s “Useful Idiots”.
I was considering sending an application to their Graduate School.
interesting. Thanks for posting.
It appears that you have a lot of Kool-Aid drinkers there. We have the same thing in Santa Fe.
Talk about anti-black racism in non-whites. Wow. That’s an issue that has not been discussed yet. MSM needs to get a hold of this.
Hamas supports Obama : the Waffle man.
That's more like it
My thoughts, too. Gee, who does this describe: “As historian David Hackett Fischer writes in Albion’s Seed, they believe in natural liberty – I’ll leave you alone if you’ll leave me alone, but if you attack my family or my country, I’ll kill you.” Not Donks, but Republicans (esp. conservative ones, not R-INOs). Operation CHAOS strikes!!!
Live by the class/gender-warfare sword, die by the sword.
Gee , I wonder if Carter would have Hamas as a good neighbor? Maybe build the guy a mud shack next to the peanut farm
Interesting stats from both camps. Some 26% of Clinton voters would vote for ole John if she doesn’t win. And 16% of Obama’s voters ditto for ....... It still is the down ticket races that I fear will still swamp Pubs because of Pub purists forgetting to elect good Senate and House people.
There are even better numbers, to add to that. I think it was 17% or near about for both candidates that said they would stay home if their candidate did not win the nomination.
I have a better idea...let’s give them REAL swords, sit back, and let them kill each other...
Love watching the commies bitch-slapping each other. Better than a Doctor Phil/Oprah Slapdown....
To Rush Limbaugh, I say: Banzai, Rush!!! “May You Live Ten Thousand Years” for Operation Chaos...
This is great entertainment. Pass the popcorn, please.
” Obama runs unusually strongly in counties with large universities”
what a surprize, not.
areas where people who dont pay the bills, mostly have no real life experience, and arent ready to make it in the real world (both students and “teachers”) are in favor of Obama. wow. glad I’m sitting down.
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