Posted on 04/15/2008 12:03:57 PM PDT by Kuksool
Blue is not only the political color of the Commonwealth - it's also the mood of suburban Republicans. They're wondering what enabled the Democratic Party to take the lead in registration in both Bucks and Montgomery Counties, and to possess a majority when combined with independents in Chester and Delaware Counties. Theories abound. One holds that it's simply the old story of voters' leaving Philadelphia for suburbia and taking their registration with them. I don't buy it. That was a partial explanation for some shifting patterns from the end of World War II until the 1970s, but not now.
According to U.S. Census statistics, Philadelphia's population slide began in the 1950s, and the city lost almost 123,000 residents between 1950 and 1970. In those 20 years, the four suburban counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery) added a combined 846,138 residents - a 79 percent increase - obviously consisting of far more than displaced city-dwellers. That flight grew in the 1970s, when more than 260,000 left the city.
But by the '90s, the city's losses began to slow. Between 2000 and 2006, Philadelphia lost 69,156 residents. The four suburban counties, meanwhile, added just 104,904 - an increase of 4.5 percent. Bottom line: Since the 1970s, the city has lost progressively fewer residents with each passing decade. And while the suburbs continued to grow through the 1980s and 1990s, the rate slowed almost by half between 2000 and 2006. So there must be a more complete explanation of the GOP decline outside the city.
GOP ideologues are arguing that the registration loss in the suburbs is attributable to the party's straying from its conservative principles. "We must return to our roots," I have already heard from more than one. But I discount this theory, too. George W. Bush ran on a distinctly conservative platform in 2000 and 2004, but did not carry the suburbs in either cycle, and consequently, he lost the state. No recent candidate could embody purely conservative principles more than former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum, but he was defeated decisively by Bob Casey Jr. in 2006.
It's not that the party isn't conservative enough to win the suburbs; it is that the party is too conservative and has lost touch with a suburban constituency.
Fault for that lies in the party's national image. Impressions of political parties are established nationally. People don't usually join a political organization based on their sense of the county commissioners, the competence of the row officers, or the performance of the borough council. They choose the party whose platform, they believe, most closely resembles their general views. And those platforms flow from the federal level. They are personified by national players.
In Washington, the GOP has been on the wrong side of many hot-button issues. As these issues have unfolded - the war in Iraq, Terri Schiavo, global warming, stem-cell research, and the ever-present issue of reproductive choice - the Democratic Party has made strides in the suburbs. Instead of listening to its more-moderate voices, the GOP has instead concentrated on stoking its hard-core base - a minority of Americans - by taking time out of the legislative schedule to posture on issues such as same-sex relationships.
That may play in Lititz, but it doesn't wash in Lower Merion.
That's why Al Gore and John Kerry did so well along the Blue Route, just across City Avenue, or north of the Pennsylvania Turnpike, in traditionally Republican strongholds. Some Republican suburbanites have been alienated and have left the party. Others who might have joined are not doing so.
There is evidence of a similar shift among local politicos. Last week, the state House of Representatives voted on a measure that would require handgun owners to report missing or stolen weapons, and nine suburban legislators defied the NRA by supporting it. In November, Democrats captured five of nine Montco row offices. These things would have been unheard of just 20 years ago.
And the situation could grow worse for the GOP. Take the case of U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter, who barely survived a primary challenge on the right from Pat Toomey in 2004. Specter has already announced his intention to seek an unprecedented sixth term in 2010. If he needs to fend off another primary challenge in that cycle, he will have to do it with far fewer moderate Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs, a key constituency for him in years past. Many of those who enabled him to defeat Toomey are now Democrats. They were his margin of victory. And these changes could make it difficult for the next generation of moderates to emerge.
As Specter's son and adviser, Shanin, told me: "The national Republicans have spent too much time pumping the base, while the Democrats talk to the country. People notice. And with 81 percent of the nation saying we're on the wrong track, it'd be hard to find a county in Pennsylvania where people are happy with the national Republican Party."
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Is that why poll after poll show that american’s largely support lower taxes, secure borders, lower spending and are about even on abortion but by an overwhelming majority oppose late term and partial birth abortions. Perhaps its our messengers but it aint the message.
the new jerseyification of pennsylvania is in full force.
Here’s the problem: Republicans talk conservative but they govern liberal. With the exception of Newt’s Congress and Reagan’s Presidency, we haven’t had conservative leadership since, well, Eisenhower?
Eventually all the talk rings hollow and people give up on you.
This is Pennsylvania. Did the author really think the GOP had a chance?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I grew up near the same county seat as MS. With the county courthouse in town the area was a lawyer magnet. Like ants coming to a picnic.
Anyone ever ask why this clown practiced law in Philly instead of his own backyard? Ask someone who has seen him in a Bucks Co. court and you’ll know why.
Incompetence.
Doesn’t surprise me, his father was a nice guy and my guidance counselor for three years. Don’t know what he ever did, few problems in the school and the guy almost never left his office which was out of sight from the students (aka door always shut).
I grew up near the same county seat as MS. With the county courthouse in town the area was a lawyer magnet. Like ants coming to a picnic.
Anyone ever ask why this clown practiced law in Philly instead of his own backyard? Ask someone who has seen him in a Bucks Co. court and you’ll know why.
Incompetence.
Doesn’t surprise me, his father was a nice guy and my guidance counselor for three years. Don’t know what he ever did, few problems in the school and the guy almost never left his office which was out of sight from the students (aka door always shut).
And he won both times.
In Washington, the GOP has been on the wrong side of many hot-button issues. As these issues have unfolded - the war in Iraq, Terri Schiavo, global warming, stem-cell research, and the ever-present issue of reproductive choice
There you go. Let's all agree to the media line whatever it is ,then we can elect our officials based on the swimsuit and evening wear competition.
Doesn’t Philly lose population every year but gain voters?
I heard its the greatest example of civic duty in America 105% voter participation.
BTW, I didn’t double post, don’t know what happened.
If MS is Catholic we would’ve attended the same church, although he’s younger.
If he went to Catholic HS he may have been a classmate of Michael Schiavo. Terry would have been in another building, they had one school for boys and another school for girls, identical, next to each other and they kept them separated. See the recipe for stupidity.
Al Gore won Pennsylvania’s electoral votes in 2000 by about 205,000 votes, and Bush only received 46 or so percent of the votes.
By 2004, the gap was only 144,000 and Bush’s percentage of the total had risen 2 points, while Kerry lost ground from Gore’s total in 2000.
There ARE new registrations in Pennsylvania, just to be included in the chaos called the democratic primary. Of course, the Bush hater crowd considers it some kind of newsworthy thing when, in reality, it isn’t.
Some of the Philly suburban counties have been infiltrated if you will by those from the city who are fleeing city life.
Soon, those counties won’t be the place to live, either. Democrats have a habit of ruining any area they move into.
It's hard for lefties to admit that the nation is rather overwhelmingly opposed to gay marriage. When the issue came up to the voters here in California it was soundly defeated - and my state's about as far from a conservative stronghold as you can get.
There is no one problem with the Philadelphia suburbs, it’s just not socially conservative, maybe it hasn’t been for a very long time. Add to that a little white guilt, a leftist college education and a strong drive for a politically correct social standing and you get a limousine liberal instead of a Mainline blueblood Republican.
Do you remember the old fake wood sided station wagons that the main line moms all drove, that it was considered ostentatious to drive expensive new cars all the time?
I don’t know the demographics of these areas but I surmise that they are upper middle class and above. The Dems are now the party of the rich and if what I surmise is true, this would fit that trend.
The Repubs were the part of the rich until Reagan dropped the top marginal rate from 75% to 28%. Prior to Reagan, the rich were getting killed and of course the were Repubs. Now the rich like Dems because they think that they are smarter than “common people’ and should run others lives. It also assuages their guilt over their wealth.
The Dems candidates are all super rich (Kerry, Edwards, Clintons) and they collect their money from the super rich (Soros, Hollywood, etc). In elections the get the votes of the rich and the very poor. I believe Gore won the demographics of over $75K per year and less than $15K. Bush won the large mass in between.
Unfortunately the spineless, gutless GOP leadership has miserably failed in conveying the message of conservatism and the heart of it’s tenets. So we get McCain-like squishies-— drones leading the stubborn GOP leadership and refusing to listen to it’s core base. Maddening isn’t it..especially when we should be slamming home the superior values of conservative ideals. Expect no money from me RNC.
Anyone who believes the MSM thinks: the war in Iraq can't be won; Terri Schiavo was brain dead; global warming is caused by humans, and is an impending disaster; the U.S. government has banned all stem-cell research; and “reproductive choice” is akin to home-decor choice. After such brainwashing, is it any wonder such people think the GOP is on the wrong side of these issues?
Ah, the winning recipe for the Republicans. Copy the liberal platform. The winning recipe for the death of the party.
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