Posted on 03/28/2008 12:29:32 PM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
The battle for Basra now raging on the streets of Iraq’s second city shows every sign of turning into a nightmare for the dwindling British forces based near by.
For months Britain has been quietly reducing its presence in Iraq with the intention of pulling out altogether. First it withdrew last September from the Basra Palace base in the city centre and moved its forces to the airport. Then it changed its tactical role to “overwatch”, a vague term for supporting the Iraqi security forces nominally in control of the port city.
The intention was to withdraw British forces from frontline duties and concentrate on training Iraqis and offering support when needed. But the problem from the outset has been the failure of the Iraqi army and police to take control of the city, a mission that British troops, with the advantage of modern equipment and training, had failed to do during their four years in southern Iraq. Instead the Shia Muslim militias — the Mahdi Army loyal to Moqtadr al-Sadr, the Badr Brigades of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the smaller Fadillah Party — effectively took over the streets.
The three groups were in open contest for control of the city. The battle has little to do with ideology but everything to do with economics. Basra is the hub of Iraq’s valuable oil industry and the militias are making millions by taking their cut of the exports.
The problem now facing the British is how to respond to the fast-changing situation.
Nuri al-Maliki, the Iraqi Prime Minister, who flew to Basra to take personal control, said that his forces would fight “to the end” against the militias. Unfortunately for him, the end may come sooner than he expected. The Iraqi Army contingent of 30,000 troops has failed to dislodge the Mahdi Army, there are widespread reports of defections from the police to the militias and there are clear signs that the operation could backfire badly.
British forces, who can probably cobble together an armoured battle group of a few hundred soldiers, may well be asked to intervene should the Iraqi offensive fail. If that happens, any hope of the withdrawal promised by Gordon Brown last year of another 1,500 British troops this spring will have to be shelved until Basra can be stabilised.
It may even be necessary to reinforce the British contingent with more combat troops, something that the Ministry of Defence can ill afford as it prepares for the fighting season in Afghanistan.
The only other option would be for Britain to admit finally that it has lost the fight in southern Iraq. That would mean an ignominious withdrawal and handing over control of Basra to the Americans, who grudgingly would have to take over responsibility for the south. As American officers and officials have privately made clear, much of today’s problems in Basra can be traced back to Britain’s failure to commit the forces necessary to control Basra and southern Iraq in general.
Whereas President Bush’s “surge” tactic of sending 30,000 reinforcements to central Iraq has succeeded in bringing down the level of violence in Baghdad and Anbar province, the Americans believe that the gradual withdrawal of British troops from the south has had the opposite effect, a point that Mr al-Maliki and his soldiers are discovering to their cost on the streets of Basra today.
fyi
If Hillary or Obama is our next President, the U.S.A. will be the next great democracy to be intimidated by political terrorists.
Areas of Baghdad fall to militias as Iraqi Army falters in Basra
I don’t see how the Brits have enough combat troops left to do much here. Looks like the US will have to help the Iraqis clean up the mess.
more damning evidence it seems...
The fact that whole districts of Baghdad and formerly controlled US towns in South-Central Iraq have been falling under Shiite militia control in recent days suggests that the US has not been any more successful in persuading Shiite people to turn away from militia allegiances than Britain.
Bomb attack hit crucial Iraqi pipeline
*************************EXCERPT***********************
March 27, 2008
The Zubair-1 pipeline attacked earlier today is used to transport crude oil from fields in Southern Iraq to the country's two main export terminals in the Gulf at al-Umaiya and Basra.
The attack is expected to cut oil exports from the Basra region - which were around 1.54 million barrels per day in February - by roughly one third until the pipeline can be repaired.
The incident helped lift global crude prices close to highs of nearly $107 per barrel in London trading this morning.
Iraq's total average production for February was 2.4 million barrels per day - roughly 80 per cent of which was accounted for by fields in the the Basra region.
Basra’s Rumaila South and North oil fields together produce around 1.3 million barrels per day. Several smaller fields in the region including Suba, Luhais, West Qurna and Zubair, account for most of the rest of the region’s output.
Iraq’s Southern Oil Company (SOC) operates the fields and has its headquarters in Basra. One of Iraq's three big oil refineries, the Shuaiba refinery, is also in Basra. It has a capacity of 160,000 barrels a day but is currently functioning below capacity.
Iraq’s fragile economy relies heavily on oil exports to help fund reconstruction efforts.
Really? As reported by whom?
Iran is behind the Shia militia. You can bet their signature is on all the arms and support, not to mention insurgents joining their brigade.
Ahmadinejad’s latest visit was probably aimed at just that. And America has already begun drawing down our troops in a big hurry to prove the surge is working.
Now the American public will look at this as a waste of time and troops during an election year. This is not looking like what we have been hoping for.
As is the fact that Sadr City, Hilla et al (all under US control) have had whole areas seized by Shiite militias in recent days...
Wow.
Here is an explicit empirical comparison of Bush’s war policy versus his reactionary opponents: Basra versus Bagdad.
Despite the powerfully positive results of Bush’s vision, the public continues to prefer failed policies— sad.
dude, seriously give it up - the evidence is overhwelming.
Actually, what it means is that the media has been successful in getting enough people to believe that hyperbolic BS.
Evidence of what? Maliki has decided to strengthen the hand of his particular Shiite governemnt before the October elections by leading a crackdown in Basra. The violence in recent days has exposed that even in post-surge Baghdad, Shiite gunmen can just walk onto the streets and demand Iraqi government forces go away. They haven’t been disarmed. US or formerly US controlled areas in Iraq have hd whole districts taken over by the Shiite militias. How then is it just to criticize the existance of Shiite militias in Basra as unique when they appear just as stronge elsewhere?
{Shaking head...laughing...} Zrabbat biha!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.