Posted on 03/18/2008 10:05:22 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
SHALI, Russia, March 19 (Reuters) - At the barracks nestled in the Caucasus mountains, the Chechen military officer popped a chunk of moist, fatty mutton into his mouth and leaned across the table.
"We now have new weapons, new armoured personnel carriers, sniper rifles and anti-mine equipment," he said wiping the grease from his mouth with the back of his hand.
"The Russians have re-equipped and trained my men."
This is the trade-off that has helped Russian President Vladimir Putin subdue a separatist insurgency in Chechnya that raged for more than a decade.
Moscow has armed and equipped a local army loyal to Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov, a former rebel leader, and given it the task of keeping control. The danger, say analysts, is that this force could turn against the Kremlin.
Government handlers supervise foreign journalists visiting Chechnya but Reuters gained a rare opportunity to go unsupervised to a base in the town of Shali where a unit of the paramilitary police, called the "Kadyrov regiment", is based.
To one side of the barrack's dining hall, four Chechen soldiers stood smiling.
They wore black bandannas and new camouflage uniforms, ammunition magazines filled their chest pouches and they cradled modern Kalashnikov automatic rifles with grenade-launchers fixed to the barrels.
The officer leant back in his chair. Deep lines creased his face and his pale blue eyes sparkled with pride.
"Look at these men," he said waving his arm at the soldiers. "They've just come back from spending three days hiding in the snow. The Russians can't do that."
Outside in the courtyard of the barracks stood an armoured personnel carrier -- another gift from the Russians.
Flying from its hatch was not the Russian flag, but the Chechen banner with a portrait of Kadyrov's father, assassinated by rebels, superimposed on the cloth.
WHO IS THE ENEMY?
Analysts warn that by arming Kadyrov and his men, the Kremlin may have created something it can no longer control.
"Many in the Russian military and intelligence services believe the real enemy is not the remaining rebels but these Chechen military units," Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent Moscow-based military analyst, said.
"These Chechen units are the best equipped and battle-ready in the Russian army," Felgenhauer said.
Around 100,000 people have died in two wars in Chechnya since 1994. Both rebels and Russian soldiers have been accused of the rape, torture and murder of civilians. Chechnya was reduced to ruins, and in 2004 the United Nations described the capital Grozny as the world's most destroyed city.
Now, rebel attacks are rare and in Grozny wrecked apartment buildings are being rebuilt and the roads paved. Flights from Moscow have resumed and the stadium has been refurbished.
Russian troops are still there but tend to stay in their bases, leaving Kadyrov's forces to patrol and launch raids against rebels.
The crucial question is whether Kadyrov's loyalty to the Kremlin will last.
He has a strong personal bond to Putin, but the Russian leader steps down in May and it is unclear if Kadyrov will transfer his allegiance to Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's replacement, despite his pledge this month of 100 percent support to the president-elect.
Putin has said he will continue to play a major role in Russia as prime minister.
"We do not know what the relationship will be, Kadyrov's relationship with Medvedev is very open to question right now," said James Nixey, an analyst with the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, a British-based think tank.
The stocky, bearded 31-year-old Kadyrov has the swagger and confidence of a leader with near absolute powers.
He lives in a medieval-style fortress with two stone lions guarding the entrance, drives himself around Chechnya in one of his western-made luxury cars, charms visiting journalists and berates Chechens he feels are not working hard enough.
He also promotes polygamy and pushes women to wear a headscarf, both in contravention of the Russian constitution.
Most Chechens swear fierce loyalty to Kadyrov, whom they credit with repairing the tattered republic. His portraits -- some with him standing next to his father, or with Putin -- are dotted around Chechnya's towns.
A watery wintry sun melted the snow covering the streets outside the barracks in Shali. Inside the Chechen officer took another slurp of his tea.
"Do British army officers get paid as well as me?" he asked, saying he receives around $1,400 per month -- a fine salary in Russia and a fortune in Chechnya where unemployment is rampant.
"Have some more potatoes," he said pushing a plate of fried potatoes -- crisp and smothered in oil -- across the table.
Another Chechen soldier walked in wearing an all black special forces uniform. He stopped and glanced at the foreigner and spoke firmly to the Chechen officer in Chechen.
"It's probably time for you to go," the officer then said.
Total control is impossible, and futile. It is far more practical to develop some trust. Many of former Chechen rebels were mislead by Wahhabist propaganda and promises of new better life under their rule. The reality was different, and many former fighters surrendered to rebuild their land (and were forgiven, unless they did something particularly bad.)
So Putin indeed risked by arming Kadyrov. But what other options were on the table? Keep the army in Chechnya forever? This is not a good political move. Much better to make a deal: "you behave yourself, we don't meddle in your affairs." Basically, the lack of behavior of old Chechen gang was the cause for the war. Back in 1995-2000 Chechnya was made into a criminal haven, where one could buy a slave or to kill anyone without punishment. That spilled into neigboring territories (Russia) and that's when that had to be stopped, by force, since the rebels refused to listen. Those old rebels are mostly dead now, and the new generation learned that an independent country is not permitted to be a bad neighbor. When Chechnya is independent again (if Chechens decide to separate - it is an option) they will build a reasonably good country, not a failed state that they made around year 2000. That country will not be a problem to anyone.
By the way, Chechens are very proud people, and the fact that they are trusted to manage their whole native land is not lost on them. They also know that if they betray that trust they will not fare much better than the previous team. People may be fearless, but it's tough to stand against weapons that can wipe a small town out in one salvo. Chechens do not have such things, and they don't need them for what they are doing now (policing, effectively.) And it's not in Russian culture to exceedingly worry about ethics of war. That's why Grozny was destroyed in last campain - because it was practical, and destroyed most of the rebels' army in one move, ultimately saving lives.
Kadyrov is from the KGB. He has a friend in Putin.
KGB or not, Kadyrov-father was one of the rebels; in fact he was the Chief Mufti at that time. But he was a moderate, and he was first sidelined, and later killed.
His son, Ramzan, took over the presidency, and is ruling the country as he sees fit. Fortunately, so far his methods are passably acceptable, considering the circumstances. But the Wikipedia links below allege a lot of stuff, and likely many of those accusations are true.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akhmad_Kadyrov
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov
The Wikipedia article also points out that polls in Russia are evenly split on a question if Ramzan Kadyrov can be trusted. In fact, nobody knows what the man thinks. But as time goes by, he is keeping the country under control, and that’s what matters. And he knows his people, and he knows what it takes to control them. That is valuable. There is no such man in Afghanistan, and there is no such man in Iraq, and they are badly needed.
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