Posted on 03/12/2008 1:24:57 PM PDT by The_Republican
Thanks! I didn’t know that.
I added up the number of delegates on the 2008 Election Guide from the NYT which, if I added correctly is 4044, which includes the super delegates.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/primaries/democraticprimaries/index.html
2025 is three more than 1/2 the delegates.
WITHOUT FLORIDA OR MICHIGAN. i.e. they are NOT in the 4044.
IF their gross delegates were added to the 4044 then the 2025 number would also have to increase.
Michigan only had a choice between Clinton - Undecided and Kucinich. Obama was not on the ballot, therefore, you can not assume a 50/50 split between the two candidates. IF Michigan is to be included, the only fair way, would be to have a new primary or caucus.
Florida has a similar problem, but at least had more names on their ballot.
Total delegates are 4049. Needed to win is 2025. Both these figures include zero delegates for FL and MI.
If those states end up with delegates who count toward the total, the “needed to win” figure will go up as well.
Don’t forget Edwards passing his delegates to Barack - the day before the Penn primary (day after?).
Thanks for the correction. IF MI and FL are indeed seated, (I am 100% sure they would be, and it would be a complete do-over), what would the MAGIC NUMBER become then?
Why do you suspect that? Hildabeast is the one who has been throwing his name (Edward’s) around and wooing his support.
I think Edwards is an Ambulance Chasing shrewed lawyer. He knows that if you want a long-term future in Dem Party, you are better off hanging out with Klintons. Obama is just a novelty phenomenon, bound to fade. Just my guess.
50% of total delegates plus 1 delegate.
Her machine will see to it that everything runs smoothly after the convention when her campaign starts.
Leaders of various Dim special groups (minority, women, unions, gay/lesbian, anti-war, etal) will get their payoffs, bribes and promises. The mainstream medial will know its marching orders and will snap into lockstep immediately. Big donors, national and international, will be hit again for big bucks, and the money WILL come in. All other pieces of a successful national campaign will be locked into place.
The Clinton Machine & Crime Family will SEE to it that there's unity.....and there WILL be unity.
Folks are being led to believe there will be chaos at the Dem convention.....the salivating is palpable. It won't happen. There may be chaos outside with chanting, signs and disorder....but inside the convention there will be order and discipline.
Obama does not have the machine, the crime family, the organization, the vast reservoir of donors foreign and domestice, nor does he have the depth on the bench and the pool of lawyers that Hillary will have at her fingertips over the long haul. He simply can't match her at all. McCain would take 30-35 states against the black Messiah. Obama's fainting legions are shallow, with groups that talk big but who historically don't show up at the ballot box....i.e., blacks and testestorone-driven yutes. A poll has shown that 20% of Democrats won't vote for Obama and that's a big chunk right off the top.
We must pray that Hussein is the donkey candidate. He's so vulnerable.
All the above is why Rush is a pied piper leading cross-over voters to Hillary and then to ultimate defeat for the GOP down the road.
Leni
If Breck-girl went to an Obama rally and then a klintoon rally, it would be obvious to him who to give the votes to. Like going to a Beatles concert vs a Stalin rally.
I'm so sick of you defeatist losers! Hitlery will set the record for negative turnout if she is the RAT nominee. Her negatives are HUGE!
4050 + 185 (FL) + 128 (MI) = 4363
About 2181 for the win (about 156 more than originally needed).
If above scenario plays out then Obama would need about 360 Total Super Delgates (149 more than he already has according to RCP) and she would need about 480 Total Super Delegates.
Essentially, Obama would need 40% of the SDs.
You are correct. Can’t think of a woman right now more hated by so many here than her.
ROTFLMAO!
Please read post 28 for better understand of problem at hand. Thanks.
The number of superdelegates keeps changing, as people are elected or resign. Lantos was a superdelegate, and now Foster and Carson will be a superdelegate. Spitzer is no longer a superdelegate.
So the math keeps changing slightly.
Yes, but you are a bit conservative on Obama. I would look at your numbers as best case for Hillary (ie I think he will win Michigan)
More likely, I think he'll come within 8 pts in Pennsylvania and will only need about 50 more SD's then he has now. He'll have this wrapped well before the convention. IMO.
I think more than delegate count at this point Obama needs a Popular vote win in a Big State. Essentially, the game has changed now. Its not all about Pledge Delegates any more but about finding JUSTIFICATION for Super Delegates. Hildabeast would claim she has MOMENTUM, she won ALL the Big States, and she has Popular Vote Win, and thus Super Delegates are hers.
If Obama can counter with even 1% win in *any* of MI, FL or PA (maybe Indiana could help his case), THEN he got sometthing.
There was a poll a few days back where it said Obama and Klinton were tied 41% each in Michigan.
However, based on the fact that Hildabeast has employed race-card and kitchen-sink strategy, and now media is helping them out too, and most importantly, Conservatives are constantly trashing Obama and doing Hildabeast’s dirty work for her, and that’s scaring relatively moderate/conservative voters, she would get Texas type results.
All these late breakers keep going to Hillary lately. I think those guys would like to vote for Obama but all the fear mongering based on his middle name and his connections with his Pastor and Farrakhan and the anarchist-terrorist, that rhetoric causes certain amount of fear that the LATE BREAKERS are NOT able to overcome.
Klintons also excel at voter fraud. Even in NY Primary, their are reports where in some districts, Obama managed 0 votes or something like that. Obama camp is already sweating bullets over Mail-In-Ballot.
Michigan is his BEST bet to squeeze a popular vote win in a Big State. However by that time Hildabeast would have the news cycle, the momentum, the euphoria, the wind on her back, all in her favor.
Hope you are right. Klintons have no conscience, no fear, no boundaries, no die - with all the negatives that are working against GOP right now, I can’t see how they can be beaten if they get in.
So a delegate already chosen (say in IL) could get bumped because Dems won a special election? That doesn’t seem right.
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