Posted on 03/07/2008 11:51:25 PM PST by Kurt Evans
The two Independent candidates on this year's ballot for U.S. House of Representatives each expect to draw more votes than Independents traditionally have gleaned in South Dakota, and that could make a difference in how the Democratic and Republican candidates fare.
Independent Stacey Nelson said Friday he expects to draw between 15 and 55 percent of the popular vote. Independent Kurt Evans said that he estimated his support at 5 to 8 percent of the vote as of Oct. 24...
Democrat Rick Weiland and Republican John Thune are expecting to share most of the votes. Weiland's campaign press secretary Clay Pederson said if an Independent gets more than the typical 1 to 3 percent, it will be because this year the seat is open and all four contenders are new figures to the public...
Nelson, who has described himself as "an extreme moderate," said his views may appeal more to registered Democrats than to Republicans, but he said there are some lifelong Republicans among his supporters.
But Nelson said he doesn't expect to "take away" votes from either Thune or Weiland.
"I would say those votes were never theirs," Nelson said.
Evans, similarly, said he thinks it's a mistake to assume there is a fixed number of conservative voters or a fixed number of liberal voters.
"I think I may be creating a lot of voters by attempting to educate people and articulate the foundations of conservatism," Evans said.
But others, including Pederson from the Weiland campaign, say that Evans may be diverting some of the vote that would otherwise go to Republican John Thune.
"Obviously Kurt Evans is more aligned with conservative philosophy and in fact calls himself to the right of Thune. That could hurt John," Pederson said.
Evans downplays that possibility.
"Most Republicans tell me they'll probably vote for John even though they agree with what I'm saying," Evans said.
As to the future of Independent or third party candidates, Nelson and Evans have slightly different views. Nelson believes he is riding a groundswell of dissatisfaction with the Republican and Democratic parties. Evans believes the future of a third party movement will have more to do with the Republican Party.
"I think it depends on whether the Republican Party will stay true to the principles it has upheld in the past," Evans said. "If the Republican Party continues to cater to moderates at the expense of conservative Christians, I think there will be a major third party movement."
Will you next post links to your high school year book?
“Is there a purpose to this trip down memory lane?”
It seemed relevant to Ambassador Keyes’ possible Constitution Party run:
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1982358/posts
Especially this part:
Former U.S. Senator from New Hampshire Bob Smith is also interested in running for POTUS for the Constitution Party. Smith also left the Republican Party in 2000 to continue his run for POTUS as an Independent before returning to it, and it ended up badly hurting his political future no matter what he ran for afterwords. He tried to run in ‘02 to replace Senator Mel Martinez, but Smith only got 1% of the total vote in the GOP primary for that seat. Alan Keyes is in the same political boat as Bob Smith.
Independent Stacey Nelson said Friday he expects to draw between 15 and 55 percent of the popular vote. Independent Kurt Evans said that he estimated his support at 5 to 8 percent of the vote as of Oct. 24...
John Thune (R) 57.67%
Rick Weiland (D) 36.99%
Stacey Nelson (I) 3.22%
Kurt Evans (I) 2.12%
LMAO @ Stacey Nelson!!!
Bob Smith’s boat was the John Kerry campaign (he endorsed him) and he sank with it. He’s also an enviro wacko who blocked ANWR drilling.
The Constitution Party is going to love Bob Smith! (Sarcasm off)
You're deceiving yourself.
Independent Stacey Nelson said Friday he expects to draw between 15 and 55 percent of the popular vote. Independent Kurt Evans said that he estimated his support at 5 to 8 percent of the vote as of Oct. 24...
John Thune (R) 57.67%
Rick Weiland (D) 36.99%
Stacey Nelson (I) 3.22%
Kurt Evans (I) 2.12%
LM*O @ Stacey Nelson!!!
{ironic tone}Stacey estimated his support at 35 percent, but he thought the margin of error was only plus-or-minus 20 when it was actually plus-or-minus 32.{/ironic tone}
In defense of my own estimate, I was polling at 5 percent in mid-October, but I didn’t really give anyone a reason not to vote for John during the last couple of weeks of the campaign, and most of my supporters apparently ended up doing so.
“Smith also left the Republican Party in 2000 to continue his run for POTUS as an Independent before returning to it ...”
I’m pretty sure Senator Smith left the Republican Party in July 1999 to seek the Constitution Party’s 2000 presidential nomination, but back then it was called the U.S. Taxpayers Party. I think Smith abandoned the USTP and announced his independent campaign about a month later.
“I’m pretty sure Senator Smith left the Republican Party in July 1999 ...”
As a clarification, Smith verbally repudiated the Republican Party but apparently never officially changed his registration. I think he endorsed Duncan Hunter in this year’s presidential race.
“He tried to run in ‘02 to replace Senator Mel Martinez, but Smith only got 1% of the total vote in the GOP primary for that seat.”
Another minor clarification: I think he suspended his campaign before the primary.
“So some remarks that you made 12 years ago are somehow relevant today?”
It seems they are.
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