Posted on 02/24/2008 9:46:08 PM PST by Kurt Evans
Video of Governor Huckabee's appearance on Saturday Night Live is being removed from You Tube due to a copyright claim by NBC.
The legal link is in post #2.
Ok, Huckabee was pretty funny in that skit.
The New York Times count has only allocated 34 of Wisconsin’s delegates, but assume all 37 pledged delegates went to McCain. According to the numbers below, that would leave him needing 358 of 524 remaining bound delegates (just over 68%) to guarantee nomination on the convention’s first ballot. What concerns me is that liberal journalists and members of the Republican establishment seem to be succeeding at brainwashing Republican voters into believing Governor Huckabee is running a vanity campaign. Scott “McCain” Rasmu-spin’s daily tracking poll showed McCain’s lead narrowing from 31 points (55%-24%) to 12 points (45%-33%) during February 9-13. As of Saturday it was back to 53%-29%:
Still, Governor Huckabee is showing remarkable staying power considering the way the media is presenting—or rather not presenting—the race.
How John McCain may still lose the nomination
By Jay Rogers
February 14, 2008
The John McCain camp informed us yesterday that it is mathematically impossible for Mike Huckabee to win the nomination. What they won’t say is that McCain stands a good chance of losing the nomination as long as Huckabee stays in the race.
Huckabee only has to win half of the remaining delegates to block McCain from the nomination. And even if he falls a few short of that, many of the delegates in McCain’s column will be unbound delegates who may in fact vote for anyone they choose on the first ballot...
The McCain camp thinks the “mathematically impossible” rhetorical ploy will hide a few obvious facts from the voting public, who tend to believe the media pundits rather than research how the nomination process actually works...
McCain will not be the nominee until he has 1,191 bound delegates pledged to him...
There are 774 delegates left to win. If John McCain has exactly 814 delegates (and 18 of these are unbound delegates who are still able to change their mind), then he needs an additional 387 to clinch the nomination with 1,191.
Ironically half of 774 is exactly 387... Huckabee only needs to get 51 percent of the remaining delegates to block McCain...
Even though McCain is the delegate leader, unless he reaches 1,191 delegates, he cannot win in the first round of the convention. If he loses and it goes to the second round, he is not guaranteed any of those delegates...
McCain currently has 796 bound delegates and 18 unbound delegates. McCain needs 395 bound delegates to reach 1,191 in the remaining states.
Now here’s the math ...
Wisconsin - 37 bound and 3 unbound
Puerto Rico - 20 bound and 3 unbound
Texas - 137 bound and 3 unbound
Ohio - 0 bound and 88 unbound
Rhode Island - 17 bound and 3 unbound
Vermont - 17 bound
Mississippi - 36 bound and 3 unbound
Pennsylvania - 0 bound and 74 unbound
North Carolina - 69 bound
Indiana - 27 bound and 30 unbound
Nebraska - 30 bound and 3 unbound
Hawaii - 20 bound
Kentucky - 45 bound
Oregon - 27 bound and 3 unbound
Idaho - 26 bound and 6 unbound
New Mexico - 29 bound and 3 unbound
South Dakota - 24 bound and 3 unbound
There are 561 bound delegates left. If we are speaking of the number of bound delegates that John McCain must win, then he needs 71% of the remaining 561 to reach 1,191 bound delegates.
Huckabee will probably win Mississippi, Nebraska, Kentucky, and South Dakota. If this happens, then McCain would have to win just about every remaining delegate to be guaranteed enough bound delegates to win the nomination, and that is not likely to happen...
The media pundits lump both bound and unbound delegates in their totals. This is very misleading. Huckabee may block McCain in the first round delegate vote at the convention and then win on a second, third or fourth ballot. Until someone has a majority, the candidates keep striking deals and the delegates keep voting.
Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.
So while unlikely, if there is enough dissent in the GOP come summer, McCain could be denied the nomination if he doesn’t have enough bound delegates. But more likely, if he falls short of 1,191 in both bound and unbound delegates, then a conservative coalition could arise that would nominate Huckabee or another conservative as the Republican candidate ...
Very interesting. But Huck hardly seems like a conservative on economic and crime issues.
“But Huck hardly seems like a conservative on economic and crime issues.”
Well, the Romney campaign (and others) spent hundreds of thousands of dollars circulating exaggerated allegations that Governor Huckabee isn’t a conservative, and Rush Limbaugh (and others) swallowed them hook, line and sinker. Be sure you’re researching his record without any smear-induced prejudice.
You know that those states are not winner-take-all, so even if Huckabee would “win” a state it doesn’t mean he would take all the delegates.
Your fixation on the binding of delegates is also mostly meaningless.
You are not bound to Huckabee. What chance is there of you switching your vote between now and the convention? 0%? That’s the chance most of these “unbound” delegates would switch. These “unbound” delegates are mostly the inner circle of support for candidates.
So unless McCain implodes literally, like there are pieces of him scattered around, he’s the nominee. And if he did implode, he’d likely withdraw from the race, which would free up his delegates anyway.
Huckabee is unnecessary for that to be true, and Huckabee will never be considered a replacement for McCain, having imploded already even though he doesn’t seem to know it — the fact that Huckabee can’t really get support outside his narrow field pretty much makes him a non-starter.
Thanks for posting. Very funny.
Funnier than Jimmy Fallon. This reminds me of when Forbes was on SNL. Another misfire. I’m tired of the GOP trying to be hip.
BLAST THAT LAWRENCE WELK, MOFOS!
“Abraham Lincoln won the nomination on the fourth ballot in the Republican convention in 1860 although William Seward was the pre-convention favorite.”
Apparently Lincoln was actually nominated on the third ballot, rather than the fourth.
“You know that those states are not winner-take-all, so even if Huckabee would ‘win’ a state it doesn’t mean he would take all the delegates.”
Yes, I’m aware of that. I’m from South Dakota, where Pat Buchanan finished second in 1996, and I attended the Republican convention as a guest of two of his delegates.
“You are not bound to Huckabee. What chance is there of you switching your vote between now and the convention? 0%?”
Much higher.
“So unless McCain implodes literally, like there are pieces of him scattered around, he’s the nominee. And if he did implode, he’d likely withdraw from the race, which would free up his delegates anyway.”
Now you’re talking.
“Thanks for posting. Very funny.”
You’re welcome.
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