“Romney will collect his supporters 3:1 over everyone else.”
I don’t think so. It is more complex than that.
Of Fred’s supporters (based on primary issues):
Social Conservatives - Huckabee will get most of these except for the uninformed that don’t understand mormonism and the danger it poses for Christians. Romney with get these uninformed types. NRTL and other pro-life groups might endorse Huckabee or no one at all. If they endorse Romney the backlash against them would be intense...really intense.
Fiscal Conservatives - Probably Romney and Guiliani and McCain will split these.
National Defense (military) - McCain will get the most with some to Guiliani.
Border Defense (illegals) - ???? Ron Paul?
NRA types - Huckabee will get these.
Balanced (Ronald Reagan) Conservatives (all legs) - They will continue to vote for Fred when he appears on a ballot or attempt to write him in where allowed. Or, they will just sit it out. Fred was the last fully balanced candidate left.
The end result is that everyone will pick up some. However, Huckabee will gain the most status (not necessarily votes) because he will clearly be the only true and unquestioned social conservative left in the race. Social conservatives are the working base of the GOP. This won’t win him the nomination, but it will give him influence.
I know Huckabee fries up squirrels, but you guys must be smokin’ ‘em!
This “uninformed” will NOT ever vote for Huck...because I am informed about him. Thats all I need.
NO HUCKLINTON
If they were solely socons, why wouldn't they have already gone to Huck? He's maxed out his support. Plateau reached in Iwegia and falling.
IMO you’re over-analyzing. The vast majority of Fredheads(of which I’m one)have Romney as their second choice. Fred tore Huckabee apart and for good reason. He’s the anti- Reagan and anti-Thompson in the race.
He also desparaged Fred in remarks today and that doesn’t sit well. Rom,ney on the other hand was classy and respectful. Huckabees 15 minutes are up.
Inform me. What danger does Mormonism pose for Christianity?