Posted on 01/21/2008 4:28:56 PM PST by nickcarraway
Registration tilts the GOP's way. A California secretary of state's report from December shows the 11th District is 42.1 percent registered Republicans and 37.5 percent registered Democrats.
Carl Fogliani, a political consultant based in the district who worked with Pombo two years ago, said Republicans have every reason to think they'll take back the seat this year.
Party registration and Andal's strong name recognition without the baggage Pombo had are two reasons, he said. And there are others.
"You have a Congress with lower approval ratings than President Bush, which is what Democrats are always talking about," said Fogliani, who is not affiliated with any 11th District candidate. "This is a Republican, agriculture-based seat."
McNerney's people also think it will be a tough race. But they're optimistic.
Spokesman Andy Stone said McNerney has made an effort to come back to his district nearly every weekend to meet with constituents from Ripon to Brentwood to Morgan Hill.
Much of the discussion has centered on bringing jobs, especially in renewable energy, to the part of the district in the Northern San Joaquin Valley, Stone said.
McNerney may have a trump card for the registration disparity: A huge cash advantage. According to opensecrets. org, a campaign finance watchdog, McNerney has raised $1.06 million to Andal's $389,000.
With state Republican finances in disarray, Andal may have to do heavy lifting on his own to make the race competitive financially, though Pombo raised more money than McNerney and outspent him 2 to 1 in 2006 and lost, showing that money isn't everything.
The Rothenberg Political Report, which tracks political races, rates McNerney-Andal as a toss-up (neither candidate has any notable primary challengers) because of strong factors on both sides.
The report's political editor, Nathan Gonzales, said there's a wild card to consider: the presidential race.
(Excerpt) Read more at modbee.com ...
Ping
It didn’t help Pombo had a RINO undercut him in the primary, then back McNerny in the general election.
Andal will compete for the Santa Clara County portion of District 11 that Pombo took for granted.
I wonder how much impact that nutjob really had? It’s not like he had been popular among Republicans in years.
This race looks promising.
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