Contribution number 3 on its way to Fred's red truck.
The fact is that Fred is in 4th place in SC, as of the most recent Rassmussen. I said yesterday before the debate that Fred needed to attack Huckabee, but also McCain AND Romney. He needs to do just what he did to Huck to the others ahead of him. They lead him in delegates too. It was a good start, and got him some good publicity, but he does need to go after the others.
Nice analysis.
I hear you but usually in politics the lead candidate is the one who gets attacked to drive his vote down.
McCain looks like the leader in SC and is deserving of attack.
Fred did show some strength last night but he need to keep it going in other directions.
Huckabee was hit on “nanny state” anti-smoking at the end of Fred’s statement.
I liked that.
We need more defense of personal freedom in this campaign that’s under attack from the anti-obesity, multicultural and anti-smoking crowds.
Dan Rather, is that you? /kidding
Fred won the debate and I think he will win South Carolina too.
Pretty soon we will be saying, “Good-bye, Huckabee.”
Just like last night’s debate basically said, “Good-bye, Romney.”
I think you are dead on accurate with this ‘vanity post’ for what its worth.
The simple fact is McCain can’t win the major GOP primaries that don’t allow ‘cross over votes’.
What worries me is that some might think the votes he gets in NH or Michigan via ‘cross overs’ will still ‘be there’ come November.
They won’t be.
Contribution number 3 on its way to Fred's red truck.
Nice analysis, except it falls apart in one key area.
McCain is a threat to Thompson in the South by the simple fact that he is leading SC. The last time I checked, SC is part of the South.
It’s inexplicable why he would go after Huckabee and not McCain when McCain is now the front runner and leading not just polls in MI but also SC. I take that back, it is easily explained by the fact that Thomson and McCain are good friends. Remember they worked on CFR together.
“John is a non-factor in the South”
Really?!? He’s leading SC. That’s in the South ain’t it?
Fred’s strategy has always been to start in SC, and use that to sweep the southern states – namely SC, Ala, Ga, Tenn, NC, Miss, LA, Tex. By winning those he would build a good number of delegates and have a solid shot at the nomination. That was his plan.
The monkey-wrench in that plan has become Mike Huckabee.
John McCain is not Fred’s main rival in the states Fred is targeting. That is why Fred is not attacking him like he is Huckabee.
Good rant!
I'd like to see a computer program which goes thru various scenarios and adds up delegates. In other words I'd like to quantitate what "a good number" really means.
LOL, I live in nicey nice Iowa and it is indeed nicey nice. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but I'm glad we have the SOUTH too.
I’ve been thinking much the same thing. Assuming McCain wins Michigan, he takes care of Romney so Fred didn’t need to go there.
But a McCain less-than 30% showing in SC will give Fred ammunition to spin that as a pitiful showing in the GOP’s strongholds. He can credibly argue that, without a divided conservative bloc, he can beat McCain.
Going after Huck made the most sense. If he can knock out Huck he will finally get some badly needed media credit. Had he taken on McCain, he could have cut into his lead but it’s unlikely he could make up enough ground to beat him. Then the media would have reported that he failed in his goal. Better to beat Huck right now.
He also had to figure that a Reaganesque challenge to Huck would have the side benefit of peeling off a few McCain/Mitt voters.
It’s late and risky. But I agree with you that it was his best strategy for SC. If the stars align correctly, he could come roaring into Florida.
It was clear to me. I said as much to the wife last night. Fred was battling the other Southern candidate, that’s it.
I think...let’s say that I really hope...that Huckabee loses it in the south, with SC being the whipping board. He’s become very arrogant and thinks the more controversial he becomes, the more people will like him...like Obama. But Huck is no Obama.
However, if Obama pulls this out, he’ll win nationally, and this will go for the 8 year stretch. I think that what has hurt the Republicans has been very well-known evangelicals coming in for one of the more liberal candidates, thinking that the whole election depended on whether they could beat Hillary. Now, b/c these people have already weighed in, their following is swayed against people like Duncan and Fred. How else can you explain real conservatives getting behind McCain, Huckabee, Romney, Giuliani...? They have truly missed the mark, and may cost a good guy the election, if Fred wins the nomination.
Conservatives need to stick to their guns and hold the values they tout higher than ever, and demand a leader who will morally lead. The job, itself, will demand some give and take, so we don’t need to look for the one who looks like they’d be the most appealing ot the left.
I don't know if Winston Groom himself could write a more 'southern' line! lol
I agree that McCain won't be an issue in the south, in the long run. Huckabee is an entirely different story only because of he has 'Preacher cred', which is mightier in the south than 'street cred' at the HipHop awards.
My Husband feels that there is no way the South will elect another Gov from Arkansas and doesn't see him as a threat to Thompson.
Interesting analysis. My one reservation is that if FDT doesn’t win SC or come close, the rest of his Southern strategy is likely to become moot. Therefore it would seem logical for him to take on McCain as the SC front-runner as well as Huckabee.
Agree with your analysis. Huckabee is Fred’s competition in SC. Had he gone into the debate attacking Huckabee AND McCain, he’d have looked desperate and like he was flailing. He focused his attack on his main rival, and was smart to do so.
Concentrate on one target at a time. Plenty of time to get McCain in the next state.