Posted on 01/09/2008 6:29:15 PM PST by blam
Iraqi war death toll slashed by three quarters
22:00 09 January 2008
NewScientist.com news service
Jim Giles
The death toll in Iraq may be far lower than previously claimed, according to a team working for the Iraqi Ministry of Health.
The researchers estimate that the number of violent deaths in Iraq between the US-led invasion of March 2003 and the end of June 2006 to be between 104,000 and 223,000.
This loss of life is described as "massive", but is well below the figure of 600,000 violent deaths claimed by a team of Iraqi and US scientists in autumn 2006 (The Lancet, vol 368, p 1241).
The Lancet research, led by public health experts from Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, US, was hailed by opponents of the war as evidence of the huge human cost of the conflict, but attacked with equal force by supporters of the invasion. President George W Bush publicly dismissed the study on the day it was released.
Larger study
The methods used to produce the estimate have since come under intense scrutiny although many experts believe the research was as good as it could have been given the dangerous and unstable conditions within Iraq.
The latest study is, however, likely to increase doubts about the 600,000 figure, not least because the new survey is far larger.
(Excerpt) Read more at newscientist.com ...
ping
Aprox. 100,000 including at least 20,000 terrorists. Most deaths are young men dying of gun wounds... draw your conclusions. That very well includes militias and gangs killing each other.
151,000 - Isn’t that about one-fourth the number who allegedly died during the economic sanctions of the Clinton years? Moreover, it was claimed that most of the dead were innocents - women and children - whereas the 151,000 figure presumably includes thousands of insurgents, sectarian militiamen, and Saddamite thugs.
Even worse, during the criminally inept Clinton years, we were paying the crooks at the UN to ship food and medicine to those hundreds of thousands of starving children. The checks were cashed, of course, but the children never saw the food or medicine. There were a few warehouses full of UN stuff, for PR purposes only, when our troops invaded Baghdad.
Where is all the outrage from the bleeding heart lefties re: Oil for Food? Kofi lied and thousands died, but doesn’t his suit look nice? None of the msm will carry the story and it is the reason that we are in Iraq.
That's because he's smart enough to recognize BS when he sees it.
I appreciate you posting this very important piece, but I still call ‘bull’ on it.
The earlier Lancet report gave a yearly total of approximately 220,000 war-related deaths a year from March 2003 to end of June 2006, based on a survey of 2000 homes. This new report gives a yearly total of approximately 35,000-75,000 deaths based on a survey of 9,000 homes. The higher figures in the new report are still nowhere near the approximately 15,000 deaths a year reported by Iraq Body Count, which is by no means a war-supporting forum, but whose methodology of using media reports is probably at least as valid as the methodology used by the Lancet and this new team.
I await a more conclusive report based on a larger and more comprehensive country-wide survey, once it is safe to conduct such a study. I suspect that the actual figure is between the IBC numbers and the low number for the second report.
Since the early days of the war, when there was actual combat between regular armies going on, a “bad” day will involve 30+ reported deaths, and a real bad day will report 60+ deaths. I also assume many deaths are not reported in the Western press. Based on this, I’d expect the deaths to average about 50-100 a day for five years, or about 90,000 - 180,000 total.
I think the Lancet study was BS - 220,000 a year is an entire major city, and news reports don’t support that kind of figure.
I think you’re on the money. I doubt that the level of infrastructure development and consumer growth that we’re seeing would occur in the kind of environment that these official reports suggest.
I would also estimate that the number of collateral deaths resulting from U.S. action is well under 10,000, a small fraction of the total deaths no matter how you figure it. I think the Lancet claim that most civilian deaths were caused by U.S. action is BS, even contradicted by MSM headlines. For the past three years, most reported deaths of civilians are caused by the insurgents and militias.
‘I think the Lancet study was BS - 220,000 a year is an entire major city, and news reports don’t support that kind of figure.’
Words fail me. That figure was outrageous. Even the lib folks at Iraq Body Count took issue with it. Just as our guys should be held accountable, so should those who try to smear them.
I believe you are referring to the UN's "Oil for Palaces" program.
“For the past three years, most reported deaths of civilians are caused by the insurgents and militias.”
You just hit the nail on the head. What all these reports, Lancet, UN and IBC leave out is that the main engine for these casualty reports is insurgent and militia (read terrorist) activity. Fewer terrorists mean fewer civilian casualties. If these concerned and caring folk really did care about innocent Iraqis, they would acknowledge that simple fact, put aside their politically-driven agenda and get behind the Coalition effort to restore basic order and stability. Their own personal politics can be put aside until Iraqis can walk their streets and American troops can come home.
One other point. The number of (alleged) unauthorized (criminal) U.S. killings - Haditha and a handful of others - involves only about 20-50 deaths out of the tens of thousands of total deaths. I would say that is a remarkable record of professionalism and restraint.
Point taken. Thank you!
That needs to be stated strongly-much of the need for our imposing order, security and basic services now is because these things had virtually disappeared for the average citizen under the unlamented Saddam. That is the true nature of the criminal regime that so-called progressives and humanitarians around the world embrace in damning our efforts.
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