3rd in IA is a big win. NH doesn’t matter. Fred’s going from IA stright to SC....working a Sourthern strategy.
No one is going get a majority of the delegates. If FDI can get a block of 25 to 30% he’ll be right there at a brokered convention with as good a shot as anyone.
Hank
First of all only about 80 thousand people will vote in the Republican Iowa caucus. There were 1.5 million people voted in the 2004 presidential election. Traditionally about 6 percent of registered voters participate.
The average number of Republican voters per Iowa precinct is expected to be about 44 people. Some precints in the larger cities whil likely have as many as 100 or 150 voters attending the caucus. But in the rural counties it will be as small as 10 or 15 voters. In 2004 there were 4 Democratic caucuses where only one voter showed up.
The campaigns with big money, Romney for example, are able to hire transportation and have workers make arangements to pick up their supporters and take them to the caucus and bring them home. The reason they do this is because so many people will tell a campaign that they are going to come and then never show up. If you have them agree to be picked up they come.
Consider the caucus process. You have to go to the meeting place and spend several hours in order to cast your vote. You have to listen to campaign speeches and go through the debates and adoption of your precincts version of the party platform. Getting people to go is like pulling teeth.
That is something a candidate who does not have the funds to rent lots of cars and hire lots drivers and lots of baby siters just can't do. Plus it takes a huge hired staff to arrange it all.
That is why the polls showed Howard Dean winning Iowa in 2004 and Kerry tied for a very lousy 3rd place. But Kerry won Iowa easily and Dean lost.
Why?
Kerry took his rich wife's millions and got his supporters to the caucus. It took money and organization. His effort did not depend on the Media or its polls .. so the media got it totally wrong.
In Iowa it is safe to bet on money and organization. If your candidate doesn't have lots of both he is going to lose big time.
If a acandidate is going to depend on advertising and media he is in for the loss of his life. Ask Howard Dean how that works.