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Coincidentally, my dad was flipping through the Almanac he got for Christmas today, and called me in to point out that Perot also ran in 1996, which--being 12 at the time--I had forgotten somehow. His point was that Perot obviously received nearly 20 million votes and 18.9% of the popular vote in 1992, but also received 8 million votes and 8.4% of the vote in 1996. That was nearly equal to the disparity between votes for Clinton and Dole. Now, of course, elections are decided state-by-state, but 8,000,000 / 50 is 160,000 votes, drastically more than the miniscule margins by which Republicans have won many swing states recently. Nader didn't even have to get a third of that to siphon off a sufficient number of votes to give Bush Florida in 2000 as we all know.

I wouldn't be terribly concerned if the Republicans were lining up behind a party uniter who would ensure the base was enthusiastic and multitudinous come election day. The Democrats have three of the worst potential candidates in history, and it shouldn't be a problem for us. And with a united Republican base, someone like Bloomberg might just only snag a few Democrats here and there. But if the base is fractured by, pissed at, or just meh to our candidate, a rich Independent might just be able to snag a chunk of idiot voters from our side and that's all it would take.

The sting of the 2000 election is a lot fresher in Democrats' minds than the sting of 1992 in Republicans' ones. As stupid as your average Dem voter is, you can guarantee the media will be continously corraling them to make sure they stay in the fence marked D if there's a third party candidate. Republicans need to get serious and stop trying to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory; we need a serious, strong, viable conservative to get behind. Personally, I hope and strongly think the best (maybe only) person to do that is Fred. It can't be Huckabee; he's unelectable, period. As for the others, it would be up to the base to hold their feet so hard to fire that they'd be ecstatic to go stand in a bed of coals. I shouldn't be worried about this election, but I can't deny that I am the way things look right now, and third party candidates don't ease my stomach any. Here's hoping we get things together.