The Earth's temperature is rising dramatically, and if current practices continue, "abrupt or irreversible" effects will be felt globally, according to landmark report on climate change released Saturday. The report by the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, released Saturday in Spain, offers a decisive and detailed forecast for the planet, outlining catastrophic events on every continent, and offering blueprints for policy that could avert them. "This report gives policymakers a lot more information to guide them in making those difficult decisions," said Alan Robock, a professor of environmental science at Rutgers University who contributed to a draft of Saturday's report and to earlier reports by the IPCC.
"This report tells us pretty clearly how much more climate change we can withstand. ... It tells us the consequences," he said. As early as 2020, the report concludes, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will suffer water shortages, residents of Asia's mega-cities will be at great risk of river and coastal flooding, Europeans can expect extensive species loss, and North Americans will experience longer and more severe heat waves and greater competition for water. The water-fringed state of New Jersey would also notice the effects of rising temperatures and a corresponding rise in sea level, Robock said.
"Locally, there will be stronger hurricanes in the future," Robock said. "Things like Katrina will happen more often and some of them will hit New Jersey." "The sea level is rising, and it will rise much faster in the future," Robock said. "That means that there will be less of New Jersey and that also means that interests along the coast, like fishing and tourism, will be strongly affected." Newark Airport is "one of the lowest points in New Jersey," he said.
The report concludes with "very high confidence" that human behavior is a leading contributor to the warming trend. And it concludes that altering human activity -- promptly -- could limit that process, though not eliminate it completely. "The panel's latest report on climate change underscores the need for a bold, aggressive approach to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating global warming," Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., said in statement.
"The science is settled," Lautenberg said. "We owe it to our children and grandchildren to address this problem head-on and to do so immediately." The report, which distills three previous reports into less-technical concepts and policy outlines, is significant because it was adopted by consensus of thousands of scientists, making it more difficult to dispute the underlying scientific conclusions, The report does not commit governments to a specific course of action, but provides a common scientific baseline for political talks. "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal," the report says. The report offers broad policy remedies as well as the constraints policymakers might have in implementing them. Among the policy suggestions: a tax on carbon emissions, a switch to nuclear and gas-fired power stations, financial incentives to increase forest coverage and greater use of fuel-efficient vehicles and electrical appliances.
Robock said many of the efforts needed to stabilize greenhouse gases do not require new technology -- just some difficult political decisions by the world's leaders on what they are willing to forgo. "The question is: Are the policymakers willing to make decisions that may reduce certain profits for certain companies in the short run?" Robock said. The most comprehensive efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions would cost the world's economies 0.12 percent of their average annual growth through 2050, the report estimates. World policymakers are set to meet next month in Bali, Indonesia, and will use the report as a starting point to negotiate a replacement for the expiring Kyoto Protocol on limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The United States refused to ratify that document. This article includes material from The Associated Press.
A picture of warming's effects
Some key findings in the report issued Saturday by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:
• Global warming is "unequivocal." Temperatures have risen 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit in the last 100 years. Eleven of the last 12 years are among the warmest since 1850. Sea levels have gone up by an average seven-hundredths of an inch per year since 1961.
• About 20 to 30 percent of all plant and animal species face the risk of extinction if temperatures increase by 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit. If the thermometer rises by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit, 40 to 70 percent of species could disappear.
• Human activity is largely responsible for warming. Global emissions of greenhouse gases grew 70 percent from 1970 to 2004. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is far higher than the natural range over the last 650,000 years.
• Climate change will affect poor countries most, but will be felt everywhere. By 2020, 75 million to 250 million people in Africa will suffer water shortages, residents of Asia's large cities will be at great risk of river and coastal flooding, Europeans can expect extensive species loss, and North Americans will experience longer and hotter heat waves and greater competition for water.
• Extreme weather conditions will be more common. Tropical storms will be more frequent and intense. Heat waves and heavy rains will raise the risk of wildfires and the spread of diseases in some areas. Elsewhere, drought will degrade cropland and spoil the quality of water sources. Rising sea levels will increase flooding and salination of fresh water and threaten coastal cities.
• Even if greenhouse gases are stabilized, the Earth will keep warming and sea levels rising. More pollution could bring "abrupt and irreversible" changes, such as the loss of ice sheets in the poles, and a corresponding rise in sea levels by several yards. -- The Associated Press
Global warming, another excuse to raise taxes.
Long-time meteorologist: Global warming almost reaching 'religious' status
Global Warming on Free Republic
I don’t think that New Jersey has much wind power potential even if you take into account all of the hot air coming out of the legislature in Trenton.
Solar in Joisey? Get serious.
That amounts to about 3.2 inches. Does anybody have more data on that particular issue?
Is this one of those cases where there has been no measurable rise since, say, 1900 so it is important to choose 1961 as the starting date?
Nice how they have the hubris to make policy on an issue where the science is not yet settled. Also note how “making policy” always seems to leave the policymakers with more money and power than before. How come they can never seem to look at solving problems by returning freedom to their masters and employers instead of confiscating more of it?
At least they are not blaming Bush like they've been doing.
Belief in man-made global warming is a form of hysterical delusion, similar in nature to the Salem witch trials, or the “day care scandals”, that put so many innocent people in jail within recent memory. Those in the grip of this delusion simply cannot be persuaded by any set of facts that it could possibly not be true. How long it will take our society to overcome this delusional hysteria is difficult to predict.
So the mob's getting into alternative energy sources... hmmm...
~~ AGW™ ping~~
Utter BS
Based on what data, what trend, what formula can they possibly make such an alarmist and yet vague claim?
These over the top projections are used to alarm the public into accepting confiscatory taxation and socialism. That is ALL this is about.
My real name Just call me Al
Got to go. General Electric and and some banking firms are on the other line.
Wait until those taxes start showing up on people’s electric bills as separate line items. NJ pols’ heads will roll. It’ll be straight out of Frankenstein, with citizens with torches and pitchforks outside the legislature.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Yes. It's called state sponsored blackmail.