Posted on 10/11/2007 2:05:36 PM PDT by Freeport
I don’t know if it’s the same crowd as those SCHIP folks, but I do get the impression that it’s the same crowd of atheistic abiogenesis pushers on the crevo threads who are long on insults and short on scientific facts when it comes to evidence for the Drake Equation. Also, they seem real sensitive about what they perceive to be a pseudoscience being taught, but their pet pseudoscience is ok.
Actually these are real researchers. They are looking for something that they know may not exist, but it is possible and it is possible they can find signal. Maybe some among them are more optimistic than they might be since there is no evidence whatsoever so far, but until they look they won’t know. This is valid. It will fail, IMHO, but they are not out of line.
Unpopular, Boring and Self important ... but nevertheless, true.
but it is possible
***The well accepted mathematical definition of “possible” is 1 in 10^50. The chances of intelligent life in this galaxy are more like 1 in 10^350.
It is, by mathematical definition, not possible.
What are the chances that one of these researchers could win 3 $multi lottery tickets in the same week with $3? Maybe 1 in 10^45. What they’re trying to do is 300 Orders of Magnitude more unlikely, like winning 30 lottery tickets in one week with $30. Impossible.
Drake equation is literally meaningless, and has nothing to do with science.
***The Drake equation was used to justify throwing resources at the first SETI project. If those guys were good scientists, they’d update their original assumptions and let everyone know. The chances of intelligent life are so low that astronomers who are notoriously accurate in their language like Stephen Hawking are reduced to saying the chances are “astronomically” low.
Another way of phrasing it that I once ran across is:
“The universe is so vast that intelligent life probably exists out there somewhere. On the other hand, since the universe is so vast, we’ll never know about them.”
The odds against us being so "special" are approximately all the stars in the sky to one.
Well-accepted and apodictic are not mutually exclusive except in this. Certainty and possibility are well-established in philosophy regardless of what some mathematicians of practicality might decide.
The chances of it happening are so astronomically low that folks involved have trouble expressing the numbers.
Coppedge calculated the probability for formation of a set of 238 proteins, the minimal number which would sustain life. The odds against this event occurring during the history of the earth would be 1 in 10^29345, completely out of the realm of comprehension.
Coppedge, James F. 1973. Evolution: Possible or Impossible? Zondervan, Grand Rapids, Mich., p. 71-79.
The Earth is rare indeed:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis
Fermi Paradox:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
The Fermi paradox is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for or contact with such civilizations.
The extreme age of the universe and its vast number of stars suggest that if the Earth is typical, extraterrestrial life should be common.[1] Discussing this proposition with colleagues over lunch in 1950, the physicist Enrico Fermi asked: “Where are they?”
Nevertheless, here they are, so the odds evidently don't apply. The process need not be random, nor stochastic (if we see a distinction), nor Spoken or Thought into existence by the Big Watchmaker in the Sky. Little has been done along the lines of organic processes.
Nevertheless, here they are, so the odds evidently don’t apply.
***Of course they apply. You’re using circular reasoning.
Look at those odds: 1 in 10^29345.
That’s probably a reasonable estimate of how we got here by chance. I’ll be generous and spot you 45 ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE, just 5 less than what is accepted as statistically & mathematically impossible. 1 in 10^29300. If you won a thousand lottery tickets in one week, you’d probably come in at 10^10000. “Nevertheless, here they are, so the odds evidently don’t apply. “ They sure do, if someone is looking to find a second set of 1000 winning lottery tickets. Except that we’re really talking about a million winning lottery tickets in one week. See how astronomically impossible the odds are?
Next line of message:
“Come out! Come out! wherever you are!”
Then, the very next post is about ‘coming out’.
No, we don’t need any more of THOSE.
Looks like the “Fermi Paradox” is probably what I was thinking about.
Be my guest!
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