Independents Could Help Swing More Than One Primary Toward the Unexpected

NY Times ^ | October 2, 2007 | ADAM NAGOURNEY

[neverdem]

CONCORD, N.H., Sept. 29 — Dr. Sally Garhart Eneguess voted for Senator John McCain in 2000 in the Republican presidential primary here. In January, Dr. Eneguess said, she intends to vote for Senator Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary.

Dr. Eneguess, from Peterborough, is an independent voter, allowed under New Hampshire election law to chose which primary she would like to vote in, a decision she does not have to make until she walks into the voting booth.

As such, she is the face of a segment of the electorate here that has swollen in size and influence and stands to have a critical role in both contests.

The shift has injected turmoil and uncertainty into the first-in-the-nation primaries, experts and campaign officials said. That creates an opportunity for Mr. Obama while posing complications to the candidacies of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Mr. McCain.

The fight for independent voters could be important not just in determining the nominees, but also as a preview of the general election battle. The percent of Americans who call themselves independents has increased, to 32 percent from 28 percent in 2000, according to polls by The New York Times and CBS News.

Nowhere is the potential influence of this group more on display than in New Hampshire.

Independent voters, or undeclared voters as they are called here, make up 45 percent of the electorate, up from 28 percent in 1996, when the legislature changed the law to simplify same-day registration...

[neverdem]

Re: 2006 exit polls On party identification, 26 percent said they're Independent, which is in line with recent elections. But this year, Independents went Democratic by a 57-39 margin. That's what gave the day to Democrats. In the 2002 midterm, by contrast, Independents went Republican in a 48-45 split.

So it's near the ballpark. Does anyone have turnout numbers in 2006?

[westmichman]

My mother (who is as solid “R” as there is) says she is voting for Baruch O. in the primary to keep that woman out.

[sportutegrl]

It would make sense to register Independent in NH. You get to vote in every presidential primary. This election cycle is an anomaly, but usually there is only one contested primary, the other party is either up for reelection or fielding the veep.

[t_skoz]

The Independent vote is how Ron Paul is going to win New Hampshire’s primary.

But it’s bigger than a Presidential election discussion. In NH, we can change our Legislature, State Senate, and Governorship every two years in one fell swoop.

[Theodore R.]

Most independents are so confused and unsure of themselves, not unlike the lackluster and cowardly Republicans. The GOP needs to drop the elephant symbol and use the “cowardly lion”.

[Theodore R.]

That kind of meddling has unexpected results. Republicans are notorious for making bad choices in their “raiding” of the opposition. In 1970, some TX Republicans went into the Democrat primary to nominate Lloyd Bentsen, who became the strongest TX Democrat since LBJ.

[Theodore R.]

It would be hilarious if Paul won the nomination. It would cause the demise of the GOP, as 90 percent of the “leaders” defected to HRC.

[westmichman]

That may be so, but I am not going to tell my 80+ year old mother not to mess with the democrats. Besides, if Giuliani is the Republican nominee, it won’t make much difference who is elected.

[fieldmarshaldj]

To a 3rd party Conservative, not to Hillary.