You are right.. sounds like droughts lowering crop production in at least one major producer. And the long predicted push of some of the big developing countries to meat consumption is finally happening.
Where I live it was a cool year as well temperature wise. I'm not sure the impact of that but I'm assuming it would lower production.
Also oil is already such an important part of food with the fertilizer.. and that fertilizer must be getting more expensive, as oil and gas rise in price.
“A measure of wheat for a penny, and three measures of barley for a penny”
Maybe its time to get long barley.