Real Clear Politics: McCain Supporters Moving To Romney

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | 08/31/07 | RealClearPolitics.com/rossputin.com

[Reaganesque]

From Rossputin:

Historically, the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary have received the perception of being, if not president-makers, at least highly reliable launching points for presidential aspirants.

Indeed, these early contests correctly predicted the final choice of nominee five out of seven times for each party. Iowans’ views were not shared by the rest of the country on the Democratic side in 1992 (Tom Harkin won) and 1988 (Dick Gephardt), and on the Republican side in 1988 (Bob Dole) and 1980 (George H.W. Bush). New Hampshire didn’t create a victor on the Democratic side in 1992 (Paul Tsongas) and 1984 (Gary Hart), and on the Republican side in 2000 (John McCain) and 1996 (Pat Buchanan).

And while batting over .700 is impressive, there are strong reasons to question whether these initial matchups are now as important or reliable indicators as they used to be.

Notice is being taken of Mitt Romney’s lead over Rudy Giuliani in these two states....

Rossputin.com

[Reaganesque]

From RealClearPolitics:

Intrade Political 'Securities' Percentage US$ Traded

Mitt Romney to Win 60.0% $940

Rudy Giuliani to Win 15.0% $1.4K

Fred Thompson to Win 15.0% $470

Mike Huckabee to Win 3.0% $200

[Reaganesque]

Mitt Ping!

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List •

[PAR35]

McCain Supporters Moving To Romney

Reflects poorly on Romney's conservatism if he is attracting the McCain crowd.

[Clintonfatigued]

Romney is moving into the first tier of the Republican field.

[johnny7]

Gives me another reason to write-off Romney.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

You needed another? :)

[johnny7]

He’s still better than Juliani...

[redgirlinabluestate]

It's still early, but things are looking good!

Iowa

Romney: 35%
Giuliani: 12%
Thompson: 11%
Huckabee: 11%

Michigan

Romney: 25%
Giuliani: 23%
Thompson: 16%
McCain: 15%

Nevada

Romney 28%
Giuliani 18%
Thompson 18%
McCain at 8%

New Hampshire

Romney 27%
McCain 16%
Giuliani 15%
Fred Thompson 12%
Huckabee 5%

Great News on the Polling Front
Two new polls show Romney statistically tied for second place and trending up (even in the south - oh my!).

South Carolina

Thompson - 22%
Giuliani - 18%
Romney - 17%
McCain - 11%
Huckabee - 7%
Brownback - 3%
Paul - 2%
All others - 1% or less
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/PPP_SC_Release_081507.pdf

And then the Nationwide Poll:

Giuliani – 27% (30% in July)
Romney – 16% (10% in July)
Thompson – 16% (17% in July)
McCain – 13% (14% in July)
http://www.scforromney.com/

Sounds like Romney’s plan for gradual and consistent improvement in paying off. It’s a marathon and not a sprint, and the numbers reflect a well-executed strategy!
http://www.scforromney.com/

[mdefranc]

It should be noted that those Intrade numbers are for the 2008 Iowa Caucus ONLY.

For the nomination ITSELF, the Intrade percentage probabilities are:

38.6 Giuliani
23.6 Romney
22.0 Thompson
04.2 McCain
04.0 Paul
03.4 Huckabee
03.2 Gingrich
00.5 Rice
00.3 Hagel
00.1 J Bush, Tancredo

Candidates not listed above are so unlikely that no one is willing to buy their contracts.

[WFTR]

For Mr. Romney, the race will depend on Florida.

[George W. Bush]

I see you've received a little visit from Trolls 'R' Us already.

I don't quite get it. Our candidates are supposed to sort and sift who is "good enough and pure enough" to vote for them? Funny, I thought a vote was a vote.

It seems we have more than a few crotchety FReepers on these candidate threads.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

Excellent, thanks.

South Carolina sure is a wild ride. I’ve seen polls in the last few months with three different candidates at the top.

[redgirlinabluestate]

He's also trending upward in Florida since beginning to spend some time there. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/florida_gop_primary_giuliani_romney_and_huckabee_gain_ground

Romney Gains Ground in Florida

[asparagus]

I don’t get it. I thought any candidate who came out against the amnesty bill was toast in Florida?! No, seriously. When Mitt started blasting Rudy on sanctuary cities, I believed he was writing off Florida in hopes that he could at least finish 2nd in South Carolina and knock off Rudy before he even gets to Florida.

[Atlas Sneezed]

And then the Nationwide Poll:

Giuliani – 27% (30% in July)
Romney – 16% (10% in July)
Thompson – 16% (17% in July)
McCain – 13% (14% in July)
http://www.scforromney.com/

---

Alternate reality:
Friday, August 31, 2007
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows Rudy Giuliani remains on top in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination.
Giuliani earns 25% of the vote from Likely Republican Primary Voters.
Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, who will formally announce his candidacy next week, is in second place with 20% support.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are earns the vote from 13% while
Arizona Senator John McCain is at 11%.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee remains atop the second tier and is preferred by 6% (see recent daily numbers).

[CheyennePress]

>>>.Reflects poorly on Romney’s conservatism if he is attracting the McCain crowd<<<

Or perhaps the uneducated became educated, Mr. Sour Grapes.

[stm]

McCain is totally out of this race and has been almost from the start

[WFTR]

He's also trending upward in Florida since beginning to spend some time there.

His ability to build organization in Iowa and New Hampshire has been good. He just needs to repeat that performance in Florida if he's going to win the nomination.

If I were him, I would have attended the Texas straw poll. Even if he didn't do well, making an appearance would have helped him make an impression on the Texas voters. The Texas primary may be too late to make a difference, but he might have raised some money and helped himself in some national polls.

[MinuteGal]

For any and all Thompson boo-birds out there in freeperville......the fact that McManiac supporters are shifting to Romney is a helluva more telling than one former McCain professional campaign staffer being on Fred's payroll.

Experienced professional staffers move among campaigns with ease every four years. It's their bread and butter, they adapt, and they do what their boss tells 'em to do. If they don't, they'll never be hired in the future by leading contenders for high office.

There's something that McCain fans must see in Thompson that they don't like.....and I'll venture a guess what it is......

A solid conservative BACKBONE !

Leni

[CheyennePress]

A conservative backbone that has ducks out of yet another debate and avoids confrontation or the airing of views?

I guess we have different opinions as to what constitutes “backbone.”