Posted on 08/21/2007 2:00:35 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dean came ashore with 165 mph sustained winds and estimated 200 mph gusts near sparsely populated Majahual, a tourist cruise port in Costa Maya, Mexico. Dean's barometric pressure was the third lowest on record for an Atlantic Basin storm at landfall. It was the most powerful Atlantic storm at landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The storm weakened substantially as it crossed the Yucatan Peninsula, and entered into the waters of Campeche Bay as a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Dean's path is expected to cross a good portion of Mexico's oil fields.
Mexican President Felipe Calderon stated no fatalities have been reported, while the storm was still traversing the Yucatan Peninsula, and clean up efforts had yet to begin. Meanwhile, state and local officials announced they will conduct a damage assessment this evening, once conditions are deemed safe.
Jamaica has postponed Aug. 27 general elections until hurricane damage can be assessed. Hurricane Dean is blamed for at least 11 deaths in Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Haiti and the island of Dominica.
In Florida, the U.S. space shuttle Endeavour landed safely, after officials ordered the crew to end its mission one day early because of weather concerns at mission control in Houston, Texas.
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Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day
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Additional Resources:
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Hurricane Dean Thread III
Hurricane Dean Thread II
Hurricane Dean Thread I
Nice contrast. Thank you for all your work on these threads.
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on August 21, 2007
...Dean emerges into the Bay of Campeche... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect along the Gulf Coast of Mexico from south of Progreso westward to Tampico. Preparations in the western portion of the Hurricane Warning area should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Tampico to La Pesca. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 400 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 91.3 west or about 60 miles... 100 km...west-southwest of Campeche Mexico and about 410 miles...660 km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico. Dean is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and a west-northwestward to westward motion is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...Dean is expected to be very near the coast of central Mexico during the day Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb...28.64 inches. Storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels is possible...along with large and dangerous battering waves...along the coast of Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area. Dean is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches over parts of southern and central Mexico...and Guatemala...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Storm total rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible over portions of south Texas. Repeating the 400 PM CDT position...19.4 N...91.3 W. Movement toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...80 mph. Minimum central pressure...970 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 700 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Franklin/Rhome
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 21, 2007
Dean has emerged into the Bay of Campeche. The advisory intensity of 70 kt is again based on typical decay rates...and highly uncertain. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will be in the cyclone around 00z to ascertain the true strength of Dean. Based on satellite imagery...the inner core of Dean appears to be largely intact...with deep convection directly over the center. This is expected to allow restrengthening to begin fairly quickly...and Dean could be very near major hurricane status by the time of its landfall in the western Gulf. The SHIPS model forecast appears to be overly influenced by the recent decay and has been discounted for this advisory. After landfall...the surface circulation should rapidly become disrupted over the high terrain of central Mexico...although moisture from Dean could end up working its way into the southwestern United States over the next several days. The initial motion continues to be 280/17...and there continues to be no significant change to the track forecast. High pressure north of the Gulf of Mexico will continue to steer Dean on a track just north of west. Model guidance is a little more divergent this afternoon...with the UKMET showing a bit of jog to the right just before landfall. However...the rest of the guidance is largely unchanged and the official forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 21/2100z 19.4n 91.3w 70 kt 12hr VT 22/0600z 19.8n 93.9w 85 kt 24hr VT 22/1800z 20.5n 97.1w 95 kt...inland 36hr VT 23/0600z 21.0n 100.5w 30 kt...inland 48hr VT 23/1800z...dissipated $$ forecaster Franklin
Looks like Dean was a bit of a bust. I was listening to ABC Radio last hour breathlessly reporting downed trees in Mexico.
Downed trees?
This is news? Sometimes the story is that things weren’t so bad after all.
Hurricane Dean's next venture to landfall in Mexico
Cat 1 winds 80 mph, 970 mb...
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Hey, it's the most heavily Republican county in Georgia. It's the least he can do!
I'm thankful that Dean came ashore in pretty much jungle where almost the only thing to take down were trees.
TANKS a bunch for the new thread,,,
NOAA site slooo to load,,,
Atlantic Floater 1 : From what I see the eye is still on a
W to WNW track...
I received a preliminary report from a friend in Guatemala-- there is extensive damage to the central Yucatan.
Karl Rove must still have his weather machine since this storm was obviously designed and aimed to destroy as much rain forest as possible and to stop society from finding the cure for cancer.
Thanks jeffers.
I didn’t know how they measured wind speed. If that is in fact how they do it, I can see why there’s sometimes a significant difference between the eye pressure and the measured wind speed.
We got lucky. Dean stayed south and missed heavily populated areas. A direct hit on Jamaica or Cancun, or a swing up into the central Gulf would have been catastrophic.
“Bust? You call the third-most-intense hurricane at landfall a bust?
I’m thankful that Dean came ashore in pretty much jungle where almost the only thing to take down were trees.”
This hurricane was all it to for HuffPo & DU to go into their “caused by global warming” mode. One DUer hoped it changed direction and hit Texas.
Figures those self-loathing FM hippie types would be rooting for death and destruction.
When I was reviewing the literature for this thread, I found an interesting analogy—Hurricane Dean’s windspeed at landfall was comparable to the speed of a commercial jet at takeoff.
To anybody in a small shack in the jungle it probably sounded like one also.
Watch out! Hurricane Dean is on the move — http://hurricanedeanpath.ytmnd.com/
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