You want to succeed in wars, business or relationships? Conduct a ton of historic research in advance of making your moves and then continue conducting primary research for behavior/response fluxuations. All the USA had to do to have won the post-war was to read the tens of thousands of intelligence documents from the French on the Algerian conflict with militant Islam in the 50’s. General Patreaus’ current strategy is right out of that playbook and guess what? It’s working.
Yeah, well the French lost Algeria.