General (Petraeus), diplomat (Amb. Ryan Crocker) : Don't cut buildup yet

BAGHDAD - The top U.S. general and diplomat in Iraq warned on Thursday against cutting short the American troop buildup and suggested they would urge Congress in September to give President Bush's strategy more time.

Ambassador Ryan Crocker and Gen. David Petraeus, in separate Associated Press interviews at their offices in the U.S. Embassy on the banks of the Tigris, were careful not to define a timeframe for continuing the counterinsurgency strategy — and the higher U.S. troop levels — that began six months ago.

Still, Petraeus' comments signaled that he would like to see a substantial U.S. combat force remain on its current course well into 2008 and perhaps beyond. He said that a drawdown from today's level of 160,000 U.S. troops is coming but he would not say when.

Petraeus said he and his top deputy, Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, are working on how to carry out a reduction in the extra troops Bush ordered to Baghdad and to Anbar province. He said the drawdown would be done "over time, without undermining what we've fought to achieve."

With the American public's patience wearing thin, many in Congress are pressing for a troop reduction soon. Bush has resisted, saying he is waiting to receive the advice of Petraeus and Crocker in September.

Pressed repeatedly on when he thought troop levels could be reduced and other U.S. involvement scaled back, Crocker said: "It's going to take longer than September."

He said he saw his mission as ensuring "we're all looking at reality. I don't think any service is done either in Iraq or the U.S. by saying, again, 'It's going to be OK by November.' This is hard. There is tremendous damage that's been done physically, politically, socially and it's going to take time to repair."

U.S. military officers have said in recent interviews that while troop levels should be determined as conditions evolve, they see little reason to remove the full 30,000 U.S. troop buildup before next summer. Some say they can foresee beginning some reductions by summer or earlier.

Petraeus said he would make his case in September, when he and Crocker are due to report to Congress on military and political progress and on their recommendations for the future.

He said the troop buildup has clearly established "tactical momentum," meaning its more aggressive efforts to secure volatile neighborhoods in Baghdad and areas around the capital are succeeding. The bigger issue is whether those gains will lead to a stability that can be sustained over time.

"The surge enables us to turn the tide just a bit in key places," the four-star general said in an hour-long interview.

Asked what more the U.S. military needs to accomplish to put Iraq on a steadier track, Petraeus ticked of a list that included furthering the training and equipping of Iraqi security forces, which are intended to gradually take over for U.S. forces, beginning in areas where security and political conditions allow.

"We want to make much more progress against al-Qaida. We would like to build on the early momentum from local groups rejecting al-Qaida and militias," Petraeus said. We want to certainly not just sit on the violence in Baghdad neighborhoods and stabilize it but to create a way ahead that can be sustained by the Iraqis over time. We want to, where possible, frankly, to continue the process of handing off to Iraqis."

Crocker spoke more directly of his conviction that the current strategy should be maintained — and about his concern that if the United States were to withdraw now Iraq would be plunged into a humanitarian disaster.

"It is not as though we can simply decide that we do not want to be involved anymore and the movie comes to an end," he said. "The movie will keep on rolling in Iraq and in the region whether we're here or not.

"I, for one, as someone who has spent decades in the Middle East, am deeply concerned about what could happen if we decide based on reasons other than conditions on the ground in Iraq that we simply don't want to be involved anymore."

He said the consequence could be inroads by the al-Qaida terrorist network, a consolidation of Iranian influence in Iraq, intervention by Turkey and other neighboring states, and a "massive human catastrophe."

Sprinkled throughout his remarks were references to a need for patience in seeing Iraq through its current crisis.

Petraeus, who was installed as the top U.S. commander here in February as the troop buildup got under way, underscored his belief that the extra troops have produced the intended benefit of reducing sectarian murders, encouraging more Iraqis to help U.S. forces and squeezing extremist groups.

"Once you get the locals recognizing that you are going to be there a while, they then tell you" where insurgent forces are hiding, where they have placed roadside bombs and where they store weapons, he said.

The problem, at this stage, is that these developments have not led the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to push through key legislative measures and to move toward political reconciliation between the majority Shiites, the Kurds and the Sunnis who lost power when Saddam Hussein was toppled.

Petraeus said he believed the Sunnis are beginning to see their future in a different, more positive light.

They have "gotten a little bit past the point where they were the last few years, which was one of feeling disrespected, dispossessed, disappointed, disgusted, distressed, you name it, at their loss of power," he said.

Interview excerpts By The Associated Press

Excerpts from Associated Press interviews with Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker on Thursday:

___

PETRAEUS:

On more things for the U.S. military to do over the next six months:

• "There is a lot more that we certainly will try to do. We want to make much more progress against al-Qaida. We would like to build on the early momentum from local groups rejecting al-Qaida and militias. We want to certainly not just sit on the violence in Baghdad neighborhoods, stabilize it, but to create a way ahead that can be sustained by the Iraqis over time. We want to, where possible, frankly, to continue the process of handing off to Iraqis."

On al-Qaida in Iraq:

• "We think we have them a bit off plan, a bit off balance, I think would be the metaphorical image. What we're trying to do is push them further off balance."

• "They clearly retain the ability to carry out sensational attacks" and may try to do that between now and September.

On Sunnis:

• Sunnis over the past six months have "gotten a little bit past the point where they were the last few years, which was one of feeling disrespected, dispossessed, disappointed, disgusted, distressed, you name it, at their loss of power."

On talking to insurgent groups:

• "We're willing to talk to just about anybody" except al-Qaida, including the Madhi Army of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

On cooperation from local Iraqis:

• "Once you get the locals recognizing that you are going to be there a while, they then tell you" where insurgent forces are hiding, where they have placed roadside bombs and where they store weapons. "It reflects their confidence that we're going to be there, because we're living in the neighborhood. It's a reflection of our greater (numerical) presence."

On movement toward greater Iraqi participation in security, beginning at the local level:

• "That's probably the dynamic that we did not expect to see as rapidly as we have. That's probably the single biggest development of the last several months — this emergence of local rejection of extremists, primarily of course Sunni Arab rejection of al-Qaida but also, actually, rejection by some Shiia tribal elements ... of the militia extremists."

___

CROCKER:

On Iraq in the future:

• "I think it can work its way through to a place of stability that does not require huge U.S. commitments to keep it that way. But it's going to take some strategic vision."

• "This is a hugely complicated, time-consuming process."

On pressure to withdraw soon:

• "I clearly understand the frustration, the unhappiness, the disappointment back in the United States. We have expended a huge amount of blood and treasure since 2003. I feel the sentiments. I understand that. At the same time we ought to take a very sober look at where Iraq is and where Iraq could go under various scenarios."

• "It is not as though we can simply decide that we do not want to be involved anymore and the movie comes to an end. The movie will keep on rolling in Iraq and in the region whether we're here or not. I, for one, as someone who has spent decades in the Middle East, am deeply concerned about what could happen if we decide, based on reasons other than conditions on the ground in Iraq, that we simply don't want to be involved anymore."

On setting a date to bring Americans home:

• "I certainly can understand the desire to have a date certain. But the reality is we are dealing with some very complex and difficult conditions that need to change before we can talk about dates. The military surge has certainly done everything that we want to do in terms of bringing down the level of violence."

• "In a sense, the harder part is taking advantage of those security gains to move the political process forward."

• "We have to get the conditions right, and that is going to take more time and more hard work, by the Iraqis and by us."

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