Posted on 07/05/2007 5:16:39 PM PDT by DieselHoplite
Exhibit A: a poll from December 2003 - mere weeks away from the Iowa caucuses:
CBS News Poll, December 14-16, 2003
Dean - 23%
Clark - 10%
Lieberman - 10%
Gephardt - 6%
Sharpton - 5%
Kerry - 4%
Edwards - 2%
Al Sharpton was beating John Kerry in the national polls. Al Sharpton. The day before the Iowa caucuses, CBS released another national primary poll where John Kerry managed to climb into 4th place nationally with a whopping 7% of the vote.
Now, Exhibit B: that same poll taken just after Iowa and New Hampshire:
Kerry - 53%
Dean - 8%
Edwards - 7%
Sharpton - 4%
So Kerry wins Iowa and New Hampshire, and his numbers skyrocket to nearly 8 times what they were. What effect did winning just Iowa have on the national numbers? For that, we can turn to Opinion Dynamics. The week before Iowa the caucuses:
Dean - 20%
Clark - 13%
Lieberman - 8%
Gephardt - 7%
Kerry - 7%
Now, taken two days after Kerry wins Iowa and before the New Hampshire primaries, these are what the national numbers were:
Kerry - 29%
Dean - 17%
Edwards - 13%
Clark -11%
Lieberman - 5%
Just winning Iowa was worth a quadrupling of Kerry’s national numbers.
This pattern can be found in any poll results from 2003/04. USA Today, for example, had the race nationally at 26-24 Dean over Clark the week before Iowa, with Kerry at 9%. One week after Iowa, the national numbers became 49-14 Kerry over Dean. At the point we are at in this primary in 2003, USA Today had Kerry in fourth place behind Lieberman, Gephardt, and Dean in that order - and that was before Clark entered the race and Kerry dropped to fifth nationally.
Newsweek had the race at 24-12 Dean over Clark before Iowa. After Iowa but before New Hampshire, the race became 30-13 Kerry over Edwards, and after New Hampshire the race was 48-13 Kerry over Dean.
In Quinnipiac polls, Kerry’s national numbers before Iowa were at 8%. After Iowa, they jumped to 30%. After New Hampshire, they jumped to 42%. AP polls showed Kerry in fifth place at 5% nationally heading into Iowa. Pew showed him in fifth place with 7%.
You can go through literally dozens of polls that show the same effect, which all lead me to one conclusion: national primary poll numbers don’t matter. What matters is winning early states and riding that momentum. Because, as big of a day as February 5, 2008 is going to be, it is going to come nearly a month after Iowa. And it only takes one day for momentum from Iowa to change the whole race.
America wants change.
America does not want Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton.
It’s not going to happen.
Primary or not, national polls don’t matter.
It’s all state-by-state, county-by-county.
You are right. It’s all about winning in the early states to gain the momentum to take all the other states by storm. Now let me go check who is ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire...
Yes, but. To the extent national polls affect fund raising, they matter. In the case of 2004, Kerry was down in the national polls, but he had his wife's purse from which he could fund his on-the-ground operations in Iowa and New Hampshire. Once he scored in Iowa, everything changed. But he had to have Teresa's bankroll to make it happen.
That's why McCain's implosion is important. Without money, he cannot put an organization on the ground. He's got no sugar Momma (or Daddy) to foot the bill. He's finished.
There. I fixed it.
Polls are for the pompous who love to hear themselves talk, or for the unimaginative without a life, and too much time on their hands...
I read somewhere that McNuts is taking money from his wife to cover for his fundraising shortfall. Her father owns a beer company I think. He will probably air adds to remind the La Raza constituency that he is their man.
Mitt is ahead in both Iowa and NH.
He will not get the nomination either.
Reporters and pundits are lazy and often very wrong.
50% of Rudy’s support is in blue states, so the chances of him getting nominated will depend on the GOP’s desire to switch constituents or stay with what worked in the past. As you see Rudy is giving up on those initial primaries. I see some states going to Romney, the blue going to Rudy, and the majority left going to Fred.
EXCELLENT find!
Support the CONSERVATIVE candidate of your choice. You don’t have to settle!
Obama versus Romney in the general???
You don't want to go down that path, Hoppy.
Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean led the Iowa polls all through 2003, only to crash and burn come caucus time.
Hate to smack you down like that, but you set yourself up...
Romney v Obama has imho at least a 20% chance of happening.
Obama just beat Clinton on fundraising and Hillary’s machine continues to sputter. She has used up all her chits.
Romney has the best campaign on the GOP side, leads in key early states and has key supporters like DeMint and others.
This nomination may quickly become Fred Thompson’s to lose, but if Fred muffs it up, Romney will be the one to take it away - I hope. My fear is Rudy is the winner.
Anyway Obama v “anybody on the R side” is an easy choice in november, because Obama is an ultra-liberal black Jimmy Carter with a muslim Dad.
ok, let’s see who will win the Ames straw poll next month then. Giuliani and McCain have surrendered Iowa. Fred Thompson hasn’t even set foot there. At this point Iowa is down to Romney and Brownback.
True. Now let's see, which GOP candidate is lagging in the national polls, but leading in Iowa and New Hampshire, and doing very well in fund raising (I think he's leading, but I don't remember exactly), and not only that, he also has a personal fortune to fall back on should things?
I'll give you three guesses, and I'll even give you a hint: it ain't Fred Thompson.
McCain’s wife, Cindy, is the Hensley in Hensley, the nation’s third-largest Anheuser-Busch distributor. Her father, Jim, founded the company 50 years ago, and she became the controlling stockholder of the privately held company upon his death in 2000. Cindy Hensley McCain is chairwoman of Hensley’s board of directors.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.