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Southern Republicans tend to be social conservatives. Western Republicans tend to be more libertarian. The two often don't overlap. Nevertheless, there are some Southern and Western states where Giuliani could lose 15% or even 20% to a third-party candidate and still win. Do you think libertarians would like Hillary! more, were she to become the Democrat candidate? Remember Waco?

Of course not -- but many social conservatives and libertarian conservatives aren't thinking in binary. They'll vote third party or stay home. You may not agree with that choice, but it's a fact that you must factor in.

I think you're overly optimistic about Giuliani's chances. The past many elections prove that the electorate is very evenly divided. Major segments of the GOP won't support him. Major segments of the antiwar independent/left won't support him. Mainstream dems are likely to be extremely motivated to take back the White House. And the daily, front-page MSM campaign against him hasn't even begun -- when it does, that will take away some of the mushy name-recognition voters. He has very little chance of winning.

Of course not -- but many social conservatives and libertarian conservatives aren't thinking in binary. They'll vote third party or stay home.

I have factored that in. In many Southern and Western states, 10-20% of those who voted for Bush in 2004 could stay home or vote third party without affecting the outcome.I think you're overly optimistic about Giuliani's chances.

I am not optimistic - I am realistic. If you ask me, many FReepers are far too pessimistic on Giuliani's chances. Most recent polls show he COULD win in the general election - or that it would be close. I'm not saying that he WOULD win. But he COULD.