Kosovo Needs a Multilateral Approach

Permanent representatives from the United Nations Security Council have just returned from a fact finding mission to the Balkans and will soon begin debating whether or not to endorse granting Kosovo independence. There are legitimate arguments both in favor of granting Kosovo independence and against. But an argument currently making the rounds in Washington—that the United States should recognize Kosovo’s independence even without Security Council approval—is almost certainly wrong.

In the United States, senators Lieberman (D-CT), Biden (D-DE), McCain (R-AZ) and Smith (R-OR) have introduced a resolution to the Senate calling for a unilateral U.S. recognition of Kosovo’s independence. Yet an ad hoc process which does not enjoy clear international legitimacy, with some countries recognizing Kosovo’s independence and others opting not to, will significantly complicate an already messy diplomatic situation in the Balkans. The International Crisis Group, meanwhile, is arguing that a quick move towards independence is needed to prevent frustrated extremists in Kosovo from exporting violence to other parts of the Balkans. But granting Kosovo independence outright could just as easily whet the appetites of militants who have already engaged in violence in Macedonia, Montenegro and southern Serbia, especially when the United States remains intent on reducing its military presence in the region.

Just as in the case of Iraq, moreover, many Washington policymakers supporting unilateral recognition of Kosovo’s independence are relying on best-case scenarios of what U.S. actions will lead to. And few are contemplating how to handle the southern Balkans if things go wrong.

Things are not well in southeastern Europe. A member of Bosnia’s collective presidency recently noted that political tensions in that country were at their highest levels since the end of Bosnia’s civil war in 1995, and one of Bosnia’s leading journalists, Senad Pecanin, has said that he "fears for the peace" there. Three months after Serbia’s parliamentary elections last January, Belgrade’s political elites have yet to form a government, raising the specter that Serbia may need to hold another round of elections. This effectively means that Serbian politics could be in disarray through much of the summer. In Serbia’s Sandzak region, adjoining both Bosnia and Kosovo, the recent discovery of an Islamic militant training camp full of weapons and Al-Qaeda propaganda materials shows that Wahhabists are making inroads in the Balkans’ economically underdeveloped regions. In Kosovo itself, ethnic minorities continue to suffer under the worst human rights situation in Europe, unemployment and official corruption are at extremely high levels even by regional standards, and there is a strong possibility that a precipitate move towards independence could provoke Kosovo’s Serbs north of the Ibar River to declare independence themselves, creating yet another frozen conflict in Europe. Even the Balkan success stories are facing difficult times. London’s Economist, for instance, recently questioned whether Romania can remain a credible member of the EU given its fragile domestic politics and high levels of judicial corruption.

It is in this regional context that American policymakers claim that quickly granting Kosovo independence without UN Security Council approval will stabilize the region, yet just the opposite could prove true as well.

This line of thinking, moreover, also fails to appreciate how granting Kosovo independence without Security Council approval will affect strategic relations between the United States, the European Union, Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing have both expressed their unhappiness, both with the Kosovo future status process and with Washington’s lack of respect for Russian and Chinese concerns about how Kosovo may set a precedent in other parts of the world. Many Europeans are also uneasy about a unilateral U.S. move to recognize Kosovo’s independence. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, one of Europe’s most experienced Balkan hands, warned last week that the U.S. was "playing with fire with the transatlantic relationship and playing with fire in the Balkans" if the United States unilaterally recognized Kosovo’s independence. At a time when all the major powers need to show unity in dealing with Iraq, Iran and North Korea, for the United States to break ranks over Kosovo would be foolhardy.

Only time will tell if an independent Kosovo is a stabilizing factor in the Balkans. But an independent Kosovo that does not respect the rights of its ethnic minorities or that is a threat to its regional neighbors certainly will not be. And a process which grants Kosovo independence without UN Security Council approval will exacerbate tensions both in the Balkans and in other parts of the world as well. Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, recently said that Kosovo may be the most important issue the Security Council deals with in this decade. Clearly, what this situation calls for is careful multilateral diplomacy and keeping all the major players onside, not unilateral actions based on best-case scenarios of what might happen. Strategic wishful thinking led to the Iraq tragedy, and Washington should not make the same mistake in the Balkans.

Gordon N. Bardos is assistant director of the Harriman Institute at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs.

"This line of thinking, moreover, also fails to appreciate how granting Kosovo independence without Security Council approval will affect strategic relations between the United States, the European Union, Russia and China. Moscow and Beijing have both expressed their unhappiness, both with the Kosovo future status process and with Washington’s lack of respect for Russian and Chinese concerns about how Kosovo may set a precedent in other parts of the world. Many Europeans are also uneasy about a unilateral U.S. move to recognize Kosovo’s independence. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, one of Europe’s most experienced Balkan hands, warned last week that the U.S. was "playing with fire with the transatlantic relationship and playing with fire in the Balkans" if the United States unilaterally recognized Kosovo’s independence. At a time when all the major powers need to show unity in dealing with Iraq, Iran and North Korea, for the United States to break ranks over Kosovo would be foolhardy. "

SImultaneously alienating friends and allies and poking adversaries for no gain does not make any pragmatic sense.

unless Kosovo is a fuse to light up wide scale conflict.

What Condi is really up to?

I wonder......since we funded the Bolsheviks and Lenin way way back because Rockefeller’s standard Oil Company has seen an international competitor surface. The source of all this oil - the Baku oil fields, Caspian Sea, Russia. As a matter of fact Russia’s Czar Nicholas II invited the European partnership of Rothschild and Nobel to develop his oil fields and even had an railroad constructed for their use.....Collier, Peter & David Horowitz, “The Rockefellers: An American Dynasty, Holt, Rhinehart & Winston, New York, 1976, Page 40. Also, reference Frank Wisner, SR. 1948, Operation Fiend. Of course you know about us taking Al Qaeda...opppps, Freudian slip...I meant to say, the Afghani MuH in the 80s early 90’s and moved them to Bosnia...to stir up trouble.

Americans also aren’t aware that after the CFR was formed, they started a plan to systemically destroy the American Governmental system. The first step was to own the Philosophies of the colleges, seminaries, newspapers, TV stations and Movie production access.....Check out how many of the college professors and newscasters belong to the CFR. Quote: “The American people will never knowingly adopt Socialism, but under the name of Liberalism they will adopt every fragment of the Socialist program until on day, America will be a Socialist nation without knowing how it happened”. Norman Thomas, U.S. Socialist party. [Two Worlds, Flick-Reedy Education Enterprises, Bensenville, IL, 1966, page 90 & page 152]

back then, the strategy was for a Bolshevik victory, financed by American bankers, guaranteed preferential treatment for John D. Rockefeller and world domination of the oil business.

In any case, relative to the post of Kosovo and what Rice is up to...I wonder if there is a link with the following current news.....

Montenegro reportedly agrees to US troop immunity deal

04/05/2007

PODGORICA, Montenegro — The government reportedly has agreed to accept the US Article 98 immunity agreement, pledging not to extradite US citizens stationed in Montenegro for possible prosecution by the International Criminal Court. Foreign Ministry official Vladimir Radulovic described it on Thursday (May 3rd) as an exchange of diplomatic notes on the issue. The United States has signed Article 98 agreements with 100 countries, despite opposition by the EU. (Vijesti - 04/05/07; Focus, Makfax - 03/05/07)

ï¿¼Estonia and the Bear
May 4, 2007; Page A14
ï¿¼Russians rioted in Tallinn and other Estonian cities earlier this week, and are now harassing the tiny country’s diplomats in Moscow and calling for a trade blockade. Their stated grievance is the removal of a Soviet war memorial from central Tallinn. The real inspiration for this little cold war comes from the Kremlin.

The Estonian government transferred the bronze statue of a Red Army soldier and exhumed remains of Soviet troops to a military cemetery near the capital. Estonians are generous to keep them at all. The Soviets annexed their country in 1940 and only let go 51 years later. France doesn’t have a memorial to the Nazi occupation.

Since its liberation, no former Soviet republic has managed to irritate the bear as much as this plucky Baltic mouse of 1.3 million people — including 300,000 ethnic Russians — famous for its ultra-
Modern economy. Moscow has for years accused Estonia and neighboring Latvia of violating ethnic Russians’ rights because they insist, not unreasonably, that Russians learn a few words of their language to gain citizenship.

Many Baltic Russians are none too displeased that the Soviet collapse left them stranded in what fast became prosperous and free societies that have recently joined the European Union. The majority of Latvian and Estonian Russians have gotten their citizenship. But the memorial fracas gave Cold War nostalgics in Moscow an excuse
to strike fresh against the Balts. The upper house of Russia’s parliament called on President Vladimir Putin to break off diplomatic ties, and the Kremlin warned of “serious consequences.” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, a man unafraid of irony, said Estonia is “a
country where human rights are not respected.”

Though the riots in Estonia tapered off by Sunday, young pro-Kremlin thugs are blockading the country’s embassy in Moscow. Estonia’s ambassador was mobbed, but unhurt, at a press conference Wednesday. She later noted that the protesters, who have thrown stones, attacked
visitors to the embassy and torn down the Estonian flag, seem “very well organized, financed and orchestrated” and are brought into Moscow by buses and provided with toilet facilities, music and food.

Mr. Putin has tried to exploit divisions in Europe, and across the Atlantic, to revive Russia’s once dominant position in the region. The EU and NATO have, in this case, unanimously stood up for Estonia. As a member of both clubs, the Baltic country no longer needs to fear
for its life, circa 1940.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117824239548291754.html?
mod=opinion&ojcontent=otep

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