Posted on 03/12/2007 11:05:31 AM PDT by areafiftyone
p>An early assessment of the candidates competing in South Carolina’s all-important Republican presidential primary next February:
• U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona remains the front-runner, but his candidacy appears to be slipping away. McCain doesn’t look or act like a candidate who has fire in his belly. This is the senator’s second try for the White House; he lost to George Bush in 2000.
• Rudy Giuliani’s star is on the rise, and he hasn’t done anything. Considered a liberal by some Republicans, the former New York mayor has emerged as the biggest surprise so far in the GOP race.
• Mitt Romney appears to be stuck in neutral. The former Massachusetts governor has great personal wealth and the best organization. But for some reason, he can’t get any traction.
• The second- and third-tier candidates, including U.S. Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, are hoping to break out. But their chances are slim to none. They lack the cash.
“They’re out of luck. It’s hard to make noise” when you have heavyweights in the race like McCain, Giuliani and Romney, pollster John Zogby said in a recent interview with a Myrtle Beach television station.
The S.C. primary is very important. Dixie is a key region for the Republicans in terms of the presidential nomination, and South Carolina is the first Southern primary. It’s critically important because — like Frank Sinatra said of New York — if you can make it there, then you can make it anywhere throughout the South, Zogby said.
“I think it is shaping up as one of the most fascinating races in history,” said Greenville-based Republican strategist Chip Felkel, who supports Giuliani.
GOP pollster Whit Ayres says Giuliani is an “authentic national hero with a truly stunning record of accomplishments.”
He cautioned against “dismissing Rudy too quickly.”
Giuliani is unscripted. What you see is what you get. He makes no effort to alter his views on controversial social issues, including abortion and civil unions for gays, to placate right-wing voters.
Polls show voters aren’t interested in those issues anyway. They are looking for candidates with strong leadership skills. Abortion rights, gay marriages and gun control are hardly blips on the radar screen.
“People want someone who is real,” Felkel said.
McCain, 70, played that role in South Carolina’s 2000 GOP primary against Bush, when the Arizona senator was the insurgent, a role with which he is much more comfortable. He was better and more effective then.
This time around, Clemson University political scientist Dave Woodard sees a totally different McCain. “He looks tired. He doesn’t inspire. He doesn’t invigorate people like he did,” Woodard says.
Still, Richard Quinn, a Columbia-based consultant retained by McCain, said he isn’t worried about Giuliani or Romney.
The tenor of the campaign will change once voters start comparing the candidates on the issues, Quinn said. “Then we will discover Rudy is not a conservative,” he said.
Similarly, Terry Sullivan, state campaign director for Romney, takes issue with criticisms of the former Massachusetts governor.
Sullivan compares his candidate to Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C. DeMint took a while to catch on with the voters, Sullivan said, but won anyway. “I feel we’re where we need to be,” he said of Romney’s S.C. campaign.
A lot could happen in the 10 months leading up to the primary.
“It will happen,” Sullivan promised.
Batten down the hatches.
The race will not be for the faint-hearted.
Lee Bandy, a retired South Carolina State political reporter, covered S.C. politics for more than 40 years.
I totally agree. Abortion, gun control, and gay rights are second-tier issues for most voters. National defense, the safety of our cities and homes, economic development, and lower taxes are first tier issues.
Glenn was indeed a great disappointment.
Thompson has little chance so I don't expect anything to come of this desperate hope of some.
You act as if any "talking points" are not totally obvious to any who follows politics. Then you impune the integrity of a long time FReeper. Let me guess, your candidate is not even listed as running.
How did I impune her integrity, by asking if she is on Rudy's campaign staff? Is it a lack of integrity to serve on the campaign of a candidate? Or is it a lack of integrity only if the candidate is a RINO like Rudy? I just don't understand how that is impuning her integrity.
PKM, did you take my question as an attack on your integrity?
Obviously calling someone a paid shill is not an attack on one's integrity it's a compliment.
Those of us who have followed this know that PKM has come to the conclusion that Rudy is the most capable Republican available through her evaluation of last Nov's election results.
I didn't call her a paid shill; I asked if she was on his campaign staff.
A distinction without a difference. Funny but I have never thought to "ask" anyone supporting a politician if they are on his staff. Even those I totally disagree with I presume to be acting on their own with no other reasons for their actions but their beliefs as to what is necessary.
Well, I can assure you that I am not working for any candidate, either as a campaign staff member nor as a volunteer, and my employer is not affiliated with any campaign either (just in case you might ask based on my comments about Rudy and McCain).
I simply noticed that the same points - virtually verbatim - were being posted on every single thread about Thompson, so it just seemed like it came from a talking points memo. And while I have commented on many of the various threads about Rudy, Thompson, and others, it is pretty easy to see that I haven't posted the same verbatim points, as if I were copying and pasting them from a talking points memo, on every thread about any particular candidate or his opponents. Are you suggesting that it would be of questionable integrity if somebody in this forum were involved with the campaign of a particular candidate and copied and pasted that candidate's talking points onto threads about that candidate or his opponents?
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