USA Today/Gallup Poll Feb. 9-11 (Rudy Crushing McCain 40-24, Clinton Over Obama 40-21)

National Journal's Hotline (subscription only) ^ | 2.13.07 | Chuck Todd

[meg88]

2. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Republican nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

BASED ON 425 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

2007 Feb 9-11 2007 Jan 12-14 2006 Dec 11-14 2006 Nov 9-12

Rudy Giuliani 40 31 28 28

John McCain 24 27 28 26

Newt Gingrich 9 10 8 7

Mitt Romney 5 7 4 5

Sam Brownback 3 1 2 1

Jim Gilmore 2 2 N/A N/A

Tommy Thompson 2 2 2 N/A

Mike Huckabee 2 1 2 1

Duncan Hunter 1 * 1 *

Tom Tancredo 1 N/A N/A N/A

George Pataki 1 3 1 1

Chuck Hagel 1 1 1 1

Condoleezza Rice ^ * 1 12 13

George Allen N/A N/A 2 2

Bill Frist N/A N/A N/A 4

Other 1 2 2 2

None 2 3 3 3

All/any -- -- -- --

No opinion 7 10 7 7

^ Rice responses in 2007 poll were volunteered; she was included in the list of candidates in 2006 polls.

3. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) Suppose the choice for the Republican presidential nomination narrows down to former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or Arizona Senator John McCain. Which one would you prefer the Republican Party nominate for president?

BASED ON 425 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

Giuliani McCain No opinion

2007 Feb 9-11 57 39 4

2007 Jan 5-7 50 42 8

4. (Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party) As you may know, John McCain has been a strong supporter of the war in Iraq and of President Bush’s plans to increase the number of U.S. troops in Iraq.

BASED ON 425 REPUBLICANS AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS

Much more likely Somewhat more likely No difference Somewhat less likely Much less likely No opinion

2007 Feb 9-11 21 22 37 11 8 1

5. (Asked of Democrats and independents who lean to the Democratic Party) Please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for President in the year 2008, or if you would support someone else.

BASED ON 495 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

2007 Feb 9-11 2007 Jan 12-14 2006 Dec 11-14 2006 Nov 9-12

Hillary Rodham Clinton 40 29 33 31

Barack Obama 21 18 20 19

Al Gore 14 11 12 9

John Edwards 13 13 8 10

Bill Richardson 4 3 2 2

Wesley Clark 1 2 2 3

Christopher Dodd 1 1 1 1

Joe Biden 1 5 3 4

Dennis Kucinich * * * N/A

Tom Vilsack * * 1 1

Mike Gravel * N/A N/A N/A

Al Sharpton -- 1 N/A N/A

John Kerry N/A 8 6 7

Evan Bayh N/A N/A 1 2

Russ Feingold N/A N/A N/A 1

Tom Daschle N/A N/A N/A 1

Other * 2 2 2

None 1 2 3 1

All/any -- * 1 *

No opinion 3 4 5 6

6. Suppose the choice for the Democratic presidential nomination narrows down to Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama. Which one would you prefer the Democratic Party nominate for president?

BASED ON 495 DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC LEANERS

Clinton Obama No opinion

2007 Feb 9-11 62 33 5

2007 Jan 12-14 53 39 8

7. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Clinton McCain Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion

Registered Voters

2007 Feb 9-1 50 47 * 1 1

2005 Oct 21-23 43 53 1 2 1

2005 Jul 25-28 45 50 -- 2 3

National Adults

2007 Feb 9-11 52 46 * 1 1

2005 Oct 21-23 43 53 1 2 1

2005 Jul 25-28 45 50 -- 2 3

8. If Hillary Rodham Clinton were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Clinton Giuliani Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion

Registered Voters

2007 Feb 9-11 48 50 -- 1 1

2005 Jul 25-28 45 50 1 2 2

National Adults

2007 Feb 9-11 49 48 -- 1 1

2005 Jul 25-28 44 51 * 2 3

9. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and John McCain were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for?

Obama McCain Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion

Registered Voters

2007 Feb 9-11 48 48 * 2 2

National Adults

2007 Feb 9-11 47 48 * 2 3

10. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Rudy Giuliani were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you be more likely to vote for ?

Obama Giuliani Other (vol.) Neither (vol.) No opinion

Registered Voters

2007 Feb 9-11 43 52 * 2 2

National Adults

2007 Feb 9-11 43 52 * 2 2

11. If she were elected, do you think Hillary Rodham Clinton would make a good president or a bad president?

Good president Bad president No opinion

2007 Feb 9-11 60 35 5

12. If he were elected, do you think Rudy Giuliani would make a good president or a bad president?

Good president Bad president No opinion

2007 Feb 9-11 65 19 15

13. If he were elected, do you think John McCain would make a good president or a bad president?

Good president Bad president No opinion

2007 Feb 9-11 60 20 20

14. If he were elected, do you think Barack Obama would make a good president or a bad president?

Good president Bad president No opinion

2007 Feb 9-11 53 19 28

Results are based on telephone interviews with –1,006—National Adults, aged 18+, conducted February 9-11, 2007. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of –936—registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of –425—Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of –495—Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

[Zeroisanumber]

There's the Great Conservative Hope, Duncan Hunter, polling below Tommy Thompson and Mike Huckabee.

[meg88]

Rudy's up 3 against Shrillary and tied w/Obama. :)

[OBXWanderer]

There's the Great Conservative Hope, Duncan Hunter, polling below Tommy Thompson and Mike Huckabee.

where was Bubba at this point in early 1991?

[Coldwater Creek]

If this poll was Nov. 08, it might mean something.

Anything can happen, anything to change the course of things.

Probably Rudy will find mistress number four. and dump wife number three for her. That is the usual pattern for men of his caliber.

[MittFan08]

Wow - a nine point jump for Rudy in a month. I thought Rudy's numbers were supposed to go down when people found out about his views.

[M. Thatcher]

I thought Rudy's numbers were supposed to go down when people found out about his views.

Yep. Well, this explains the panic.

[lesser_satan]

I don't care anymore. ANYONE but Shillary.

[TitansAFC]

---"Asked of Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican Party/"---

'nuff said. Yet another poll not interested in finding actual likely primary voters.

Remember, we're to believe that 75% of the party supports either John McCain or Rudy Giuliani, depending on what poll you read. Funny, since I don't find McCain support anywhere, and Rudy's support is hardly that large.

Too early, and too many polls interested in counting Party "leaners" for primary elections - percentage wise, by far, the smallest contributors to primaries.

I'm still waiting for someone to post a poll showing Rudy leading Hillary in D.C.. LOL

[jeltz25]

At the very least, it could well be possible that Rudy's poll numbers at this point could put a severe dent in the McCain candidacy. If he can keep these numbers up, and take the shine off McCain's "frontrunner/his turn" status, that would be trouble for McCain.

I've always sensed that he doesn't really have a bunch of people that like him so much as it's just been assumed that it would be his turn in 2008. If Rudy keeps these numbers up, and it appears that it's not McCain's turn, then what's the rationale for supporting him?

If Rudy does nothing else but take out McCain, he will deserve a debt of gratitude

[Friend of the Friendless]

Nice to see the traitor Hagel at the bottom of the list.

[jeltz25]

Actually, the avg length of his prior two marriages was around 15 years, so he still has about 13 or so left with Judy. That would take him till around 2020. He'd be long gone from the WH in that case.

Although, I've always thought McCain's wife was an asset to him. Say what you will, but the main GOP candidates have much more attractive spouses than the main dem candidates.

[meg88]

Duncan Hunter and Hagel have the same amount of support.

[M. Thatcher]

If Rudy does nothing else but take out McCain, he will deserve a debt of gratitude

Amen.

(Although, in truth, it was McCain who took himself out; neither he nor the media have yet caught up with the fact that he's been Dead Candidate Walking since at least 2003.)

[madprof98]

I thought Rudy's numbers were supposed to go down when people found out about his views.

There has been a non-stop Rudy push in the media - and not just the MSM. The self-declared conservative pundits (some of whom post to this forum) have been falling over themselves to push his candidacy. As for his "views," well, I have heard at least a hundred times on talk radio that he has solemnly promised to appoint Alito and Roberts clones to the SC. I have heard not one word about the kind of judges he actually appointed when he had the chance. I think we get to hear that after he has the nomination in hand.

[Buck W.]

"where was Bubba at this point in early 1991?"

There's a big difference between 1991 and now. Back then, GHWB was extremely popular and a shoo-in for a second term. In fact, he was so popular that the leading democrat candidate, Mario Cuomo, decided that it wasn't worth running. Today, there's no incumbent.

BJ saw an opportunity, Bush stepped on himself, and the rest is history.

[meg88]

This also is showing the effect of Condi Rice 'droppping out' indicating she is not interested in the race.

Almost all of her support went to Rudy

[Clemenza]

Yeah, and the same polls had Colin Powell leading among GOP nominees.

The sheeple are easily swayed by "celebrity", hence the Hillary/Mayor Linguine D--- results you see in these polls.

A year is a century in politics. Wait until the primaries start, and Rudy loses his halo among the 9/11 fetishists and old ladies.

[Friend of the Friendless]

That is truly sad. I think Hunter's support will grow as people get to know him. Hagel is total loser.

[MittFan08]

"The self-declared conservative pundits (some of whom post to this forum) have been falling over themselves to push his candidacy."

Just about every media story I have seen on Rudy touches on, if not deals with 100%, the question of whether someone with his moderate views can get the Republican nomination. So most people watching the coverage of Rudy have to had picked up on this fact. Certainly more know about it than did a month ago, yet his numbers are up almost 10%.