Hurricane center chief issues final warning

La Times.com ^ | January 3, 2007 | Carol J. Williams

[yoe]

MIAMI — Frustrated with people and politicians who refuse to listen or learn, National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield ends his 34-year government career today in search of a new platform for getting out his unwelcome message: Hurricane Katrina was nothing compared with the big one yet to come.

Mayfield, 58, leaves his high-profile job with the National Weather Service more convinced than ever that U.S. residents of the Southeast are risking unprecedented tragedy by continuing to build vulnerable homes in the tropical storm zone and failing to plan escape routes.

He pointed to southern Florida's 7 million coastal residents.

"We're eventually going to get a strong enough storm in a densely populated area to have a major disaster," he said. "I know people don't want to hear this, and I'm generally a very positive person, but we're setting ourselves up for this major disaster."

More than 1,300 deaths across the Gulf Coast were attributed to Hurricane Katrina, the worst human toll from a weather event in the United States since the 1920s.

[snip] As a senior civil servant, Mayfield was prohibited from making job inquiries in the private sector while still in the government's employ.

[yoe]

So why are politicians allowed to run for other offices while in the employment of the government?

[DB]

I think he's basically right, at least based on the first page of the story.

[ClearCase_guy]

This guy is wasting his time worrying about piddly little hurricanes. Nothing the Gulf can throw at us can compare with the Super Volcanoe under Yellowstone. At some point in the future, this volcanoe will blow, and we will all die. And we should do something about this.

[Strategerist]

Nothing the Gulf can throw at us can compare with the Super Volcanoe under Yellowstone. At some point in the future, this volcanoe will blow, and we will all die. And we should do something about this.

The odds of this happening in your lifetime or the next several lifetimes is microscopic.

Tremendous amount of nonsense and overhype about Yellowstone out there on a lot of crappy websites and bad documentaries.

[Strategerist]

Nothing the Gulf can throw at us can compare with the Super Volcanoe under Yellowstone. At some point in the future, this volcanoe will blow, and we will all die. And we should do something about this.

The odds of this happening in your lifetime or the next several lifetimes is microscopic.

Tremendous amount of nonsense and overhype about Yellowstone out there on a lot of crappy websites and bad documentaries.

[Mo1]

We're eventually going to get a strong enough storm in a densely populated area to have a major disaster," he said. "I know people don't want to hear this, and I'm generally a very positive person, but we're setting ourselves up for this major disaster."

Hurricanes are nothing new .. but all the people from the cold states rushing down to the southern areas are

Digging from out of snow storm is not the same as digging out from a hurricane

[cinives]

If we'd get rid of federally-subsidized insurance in those areas I wouldn't care where anybody built. It would then be at their own risk.

[cinives]

If we'd get rid of federally-subsidized insurance in those areas I wouldn't care where anybody built. It would then be at their own risk.

[Cold Heat]

Warning people in a Chicken Little way will eventually cause people to ignore the warning...

Nobody can predict all this stuff with faulty models, and his models are definitely faulty.

It's the chaos theory that keeps getting him stumped. Until he figures it out, he should STFU.

[sportutegrl]

This guy is wasting his time worrying about piddly little hurricanes. Nothing the Gulf can throw at us can compare with the Super Volcanoe under Yellowstone. At some point in the future, this volcanoe will blow, and we will all die. And we should do something about this.

How can you waste even a second worrying about some piddly little volcano when an asteroid is coming that will wipe out all life on earth?

[RebelBanker]

I thought of Chicken Little and then the Boy Who Cried Wolf - same idea. We gave been hearing doom-n-gloom warnings about 'super-hurricanes' for so long that they have become a joke.

IMHO, the only reason New Orleans got pounded as badly as it did was that the crooked politicians squandered the levee maintenance and improvement money from the Feds on fraud, waste and abuse.

[Strategerist]

Nobody can predict all this stuff with faulty models, and his models are definitely faulty.

Hurricane track forecasts have seen steady improvement for decades, through the hard work of a lot of people, and they're quite accurate now.

[Publius6961]

I think he's basically right, at least based on the first page of the story.

OK, let's assume he's right. He's still a nutcase!
Neither he nor you have told us what we should do about it short of movng 1/3 of the population of the U.S. to Mexico --- wait, they ger hurricanes too. Make that Canada.

We will, with absolute certainty, lose the sun in 6 billion years. What should we do about it now?
A very large meteorite will strike the earth, with absolute certainty and with devastating world wide consequences within 600,000 years.

What should we do about it?

[SouthernBoyupNorth]

Rest assured that eventually there will be a major hurricane that will impact the Florida coast line and level a good stretch of it.
People will panic, they will leave, property values will tumble (I hope) and I will buy a nice piece of property cheap.

If the homes down there were built correctly however there would be little real concern. They are not however and the builders cut more and more corners and drive the price higher and higher.... Eventually Karma Will come knocking.... just like it did in New Orleans.

[Publius6961]

Nobody can predict all this stuff with faulty models, and his models are definitely faulty.
His total failure in predicting horrors for 2006 still hasn't given him a clue!
As a "scientist", he is a total failure.

It's the chaos theory that keeps getting him stumped. Until he figures it out, he should STFU.
I understand McDonalds is still hiring.
This guy wll hit the reality wall as soon as he distributes his resume and "grants" dry up.

[Publius6961]

Hurricane track forecasts have seen steady improvement for decades, through the hard work of a lot of people, and they're quite accurate now.

OK.
Explain your personal definition of reality.
Explain the total failure of such predictions in 2006...

You're in luck. If fruitcake finds another job he may need an assistant.

[Cribb]

Re: "If we'd get rid of federally-subsidized insurance ..."

Right - better yet, since the politiicians are always looking for another way to collect additional taxes, enact a law whereby insurers are required to collect an annual 10% of property value surtax.

[Strategerist]

His total failure in predicting horrors for 2006 still hasn't given him a clue!
As a "scientist", he is a total failure.

Mayfield doesn't do the seasonal hurricane forecasts.

And I continue to marvel at the fanatical hatred of all scientists on FR by people who know less about science than Ted Kennedy knows about dieting.

[Strategerist]

Explain the total failure of such predictions in 2006...

Explain how you're incapable of understanding what you read, first.

[Cold Heat]

and they're quite accurate now.

The deviations are even greater than before.

If you look at the 7-day forecasts, you still have a better way to check on the weather. You open the door and look outside.

IMO, representing these forecasts as more than educated guess work is and always has been one of the worlds greatest lies. It remains so.