U.S. Senator John Kerry (R) joins U.S. troops for lunch at the Basrah Air Station in southern Iraq is this undated handout photograph released by the Ministry of Defence on December 16, 2006. REUTERS/Cpl Russ Nolan RLC/MoD/Handout (IRAQ)
Posted on 12/16/2006 2:29:02 PM PST by NormsRevenge
WASHINGTON - President Bush has taken the most dramatic options off the table as he tries to change direction in Iraq, leaving him with a list of modest military and diplomatic moves to announce in the new year.
Bush probably will ignore the boldest suggestions from a bipartisan commission that studied U.S. options in Iraq, adopting some of the group's lesser prescriptions alongside those drafted by his civilian and military advisers.
The White House National Security Council has compiled recommendations from several agencies as the administration's internal reassessment of Iraq policy nears an end. Bush plans to address the nation in early January, two months after heavy Republican losses in congressional elections.
A look at some of the president's options:
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On the military front, there are various ways to "go big," by adding 10,000 to 20,000 troops to the approximately 135,000 U.S. forces in Iraq. Bush has gotten competing advice about how many troops to add, whether to define their mission as temporary or long term and whether to add troops at all.
Some military officers doubt that the results from any increase would be worth the damage to the Army's readiness. Others advocate adding forces and launching an offensive against Shiite militia leader Muqtada al-Sadr while increasing industrial and economic aid to civilians.
Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record), R-Ariz., has said the U.S. should send five to 10 more brigades of combat soldiers, translating to 15,000 to 30,000 additional troops. The current U.S. force includes about 15 combat brigades made up of 50,000 to 60,000 soldiers. Bush has been told that adding up to 20,000 troops would be fairly easy to arrange and a short-term surge of up to 50,000 could be done with difficulty.
The additional troops would be assigned primarily in Baghdad, where sectarian killing has surged out of control in the past 10 months. Some could go to Anbar province, where U.S. forces have been unable to dislodge the Sunni-led anti-government insurgency.
Another element of the "go big" idea is increasing the total size of the military. The chiefs of the Army and Marine Corps want to expand the size of their services, although departing Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld opposed it. He cited an estimated cost of $1.2 billion a year for each 10,000 extra troops. The Army also wants the ability to mobilize Guard and Reserve troops more frequently than is now allowed; some in Congress are likely to resist such a change.
Bush probably will reject the Iraq Study Group's recommendation to pull back most combat forces by early 2008. Proposals before him include integrating or embedding more U.S. advisers in Iraqi Army units to provide guidance on tactics and leadership. The long-term goal would be a shift away from a primarily combat role, which some advisers say consigns U.S. forces to a defensive posture as they await the next attack by insurgents.
No matter how it is calibrated, this "go long" shift would reinforce the administration's recognition that U.S. troops will be in Iraq for years to come. Bush has rejected any suggestion for a quick withdrawal of U.S. forces, as some lawmakers recommend, and probably will not set a firm exit timetable. He is likely to endorse the basic idea recommended by the commission and others to condition at least some U.S. military and economic engagement to the performance of Iraq's government. Economic steps could include a significant jobs program. Unemployment in Iraq is estimated at between 20 percent and 60 percent.
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Diplomatic options include expanding the U.S. outreach to various centers of power in Iraq and engaging Iraq's neighbors to help in a more vigorous and formal way — the "go wide" strategy. Bush probably will endorse elements of this approach while ruling out a new overture to U.S. adversaries Iran and Syria.
The State Department has recommended the U.S. keep supporting the shaky government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki but "diversify our portfolio," as one official put it. Seeking common ground with leaders in and out of government would help protect U.S. interests if, for example, al-Maliki were to lose power.
The starkest choice for diplomacy is one Bush is almost certain to reject: stop trying to recruit greater Sunni participation in a unified government and cast U.S. fortunes with the Shiite and Kurdish majority. Sunnis make up about 20 percent of the population but are blamed for fanning insurgent violence that accounts for most U.S. casualties.
A competing plan would woo the Sunni elite by guaranteeing them a share of oil revenue and reversing the previous policy of "de-Baathification," which purged ex-members of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-led Baathist rule from the top layers of government institutions.
Bush is weighing plans for a more structured network of Arab nations with a goal of clamping down on the violence in Iraq. This regional forum could become an expanded version of an existing State Department-backed initiative, offering a framework for countries to discuss Iraq and meet with Iraqi leaders.
Such a partnership presumably would have to include Iran and Syria. Those countries, which share borders with Iraq, hold great influence inside Iraq. U.S. diplomats would participate alongside Iranian and Syrian representatives but Bush probably will not endorse direct negotiations with them, as the Iraq Study Group recommended.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said both nations would probably use direct talks to seek unacceptable "compensation" from the United States. If Iran and Syria see it as in their interest to help Iraq they will do so on their own, she suggested to reporters last week.
Bush also is likely to endorse a renewed effort to resolve other Middle East conflicts as a means to an end in Iraq.
U.S. Senator John Kerry (R) joins U.S. troops for lunch at the Basrah Air Station in southern Iraq is this undated handout photograph released by the Ministry of Defence on December 16, 2006. REUTERS/Cpl Russ Nolan RLC/MoD/Handout (IRAQ)
Iraqi Army soldier scans the area during a joint raid with the U.S. forces in Baqouba, Iraq, 60 kilometers (35 miles) northeast of Baghdad, Saturday Dec. 16, 2006. 25 suspected terrorists were arrested during the raid and in several houses car bomb making materials were discovered. (AP Photo)
I'm wondering if the election currently underway in Iran will provide a window of opportunity to get something done. Although all the candidates in Iran are disagreeable it seems Ahmadinejad is going to lose some of his influence.
U.S. Senator John Kerry (R) joins U.S. troops for lunch at the Basrah Air Station in southern Iraq....
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The look on the guy's face to his right, says "How did this douche bag get in here??"
The look on my face is "How did Kerry become a (R)?"
It also looks like the men/women have abandon their seats to the left and right of Kerry.
That picture is hilarious. It looks like the soldier who was selcted to sit across from him leaned so far back that he's not even photographed. LOL
winning is next door.
this is merely a sideshow intended to redirect mental efforts (and spend financial resources, military resources etc etc) away from the real mideat problems Iran. Thats why they are in there stirring the pot the best they can.
In Australia they call that "drinking with the flies" . . . nobody wants to sit next to him.
Wonder why? < /sarcasm >
Look...We've got three, count em, three carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf. That's more air power than most of the rest of the world combined. How bout wee pull our guys and let the IraQis call in for air strikes. Wouldn't matter if the strike were called in by Sunni or Shia or freakin Plankton. Pretty soon they'd settle down and shut the hell up!!
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