Posted on 11/15/2006 8:13:56 PM PST by Amerigomag
Population Growth Components
California’s population growth can be broken down into two major components-natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) and net in-migration (persons moving into California from other states and countries, minus those leaving California for out-of-state destinations). On average, these two components have tended in the past to contribute about equally over time to the state’s population growth. However, their relative shares can vary significantly from one year to the next depending largely on the strength of the net in-migration component-by far the most volatile element.
Natural Increase. We project that the natural-increase component will average 318,000 new Californians annually over the forecast period. This net natural gain reflects an average of around 576,000 births annually partially offset by about 258,000 deaths annually.
Our forecast incorporates the well-documented trend of declining birth rates that has been in effect for essentially all ethnic groups in recent years in California. Despite these declining birth rates, however, the number of new births in our forecast actually trends up a bit through 2012. This is due to significant growth in the female population of child-bearing age groups in the faster-growing segments of California’s population, including Hispanic and Asian women. As a result, even after accounting for growth in the number of deaths occurring annually in California, we project that the natural increase component will grow slightly during the latter half of the forecast period.
Net In-Migration. We project that combined domestic and foreign net in-migration will average roughly 145,000 annually over the next six years. This is less than during the latter half of the 1990s and in the early 2000s when annual net in-migration averaged about 260,000. It also is considerably less than the projected 318,000 natural-increase component noted previously. Regarding this in-migration:
Most of the net in-migration we are projecting reflects foreign net in-migration from other nations. This component has been relatively stable over the past decade and has proved to be less sensitive to the economy than domestic population flows between states. We forecast the net foreign in-migration will be fairly constant through 2012, averaging about 165,000 annually.
Regarding domestic net in-migration, preliminary data suggest that this is likely to be negative in 2006 (that is, more people left California for other states than flowed in from them). In large part, this is attributable to continued modest job growth and high home prices. Our economic forecast is not strong enough to induce significantly more net domestic in-migration from other states. Thus, we do not foresee a return to net interstate population in-flows for a couple of years, after which only modest net domestic in-flows of 5,000 annually are anticipated. Over our entire forecast period, net domestic out-migration will average 20,000.
According to the LAO's conservative estimates, US citizens are leaving California at an average rate of 20,000 per year while Mexico's poor are flooding in at a rate of 165,000 per year, bringing with them elevated birth rates, almost twice that of the legal population.
¿Qué estás intentando decirnos?
Who will pay the bills when the takers outnumber the givers? Mexico won't.
"Over our entire forecast period, net domestic out-migration will average 20,000."
They must just make this stuff up! I live in AZ and more that 20,000 a year come here from CA. I would say in the last 5 years at least 5,000,000 have been part of the great white flight.
And they vote D Thanks for our gov. Maybe they will bring Grey Davis with them?
5,000,000=5000,000
"According to the LAO's conservative estimates, US citizens are leaving California at an average rate of 20,000 per year..."
I was one of those 20,000
"Who will pay the bills..."
Not this gent. We hauled ass to Arizona from Coronado five ears ago, when it took almost 45 minutes to drive 0.8 miles down Orange Qvenue at 5:00 PM. And, whenever we HAVE to go back, we shudder in disbelief of what has happened to Southern Kalifornia -- counting the hours until we can "get out of Dodge."
And, we were Coronadians long before the Bridge went up. It is a very sad signal, indeed, of what lies ahead for the SouthWestern United States in the very near future.
No soy! El LAO es.
People in other states don't believe us! Citizens are leaving in droves and are being replaced ten times over by the "guests who never leave".
Tough to be forced out of lifetime places by invaders. Our CA gubmit doesn't seem to care here in illegal alien heaven.
Dice que somos terminados como una nación.
I believe you. I am from upstate NY and visited Kalifornia last year. I like to exercise so I spent two weeks walking around Costa Mesa and Santa Ana. I think I was in the "belly of the beast" when it comes to illegals. There are millions of them there! I hope they don't come here.
We bugged out in 97. Never looked back.
Just a couple of the many invaded towns in Orange County. You were walking in some dangerous territory!
You should see Los Angeles, the "sanctuary city" - it's Tijuana North.
It is believed that California (Mexifornia) is now home to at least 5 million illegals. We're paying an unbelievably high price for Washington's refusal to protect the borders and enforce immigration laws.
I agree, I was astounded because all of my life I have dreamed of visiting California. I used to listen to those songs, California dreaming, Ventura Highway, and many others and I thought California was just like Heaven. When I finally got there, I could not wait to get back to Upstate NY.
I am sorry for you guys, it is heartbreaking to see what has happened to Southern California because of the illegals and the corrupt California government that has sold us all out.
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