Democrat Generic Congressional Advantage Falling Like a Rock as Republicans Gain Momentum

Real Clear Politics ^ | 11/04/2006 | Real Clear Politics

[Maelstorm]

ABC News/Wash Post 11/01 - 11/04 LV 45 51 Dems +6.0 Pew Research 11/01 - 11/04 LV 43 47 Dems +4.0

[RoseofTexas]

Day after Election night:....

SUCK IT UP RAT!!

[Past Your Eyes]

LMAO!!!

[speedy]

it is a pity Jeb and Christ haven't campaigned more vigorously for her.

Man, the ACLU would really have a fit. Talk about breaking down that wall of separation between church and state!

[spacejunkie]

I haven't seen any coverage today on the Gold Star Families (families that went to Iraq)....anyone? Will we tomorrow?

[Halls]

Harris won't win thanks to Jeb and Crist who I can't stand anyhow. Jeb owes Harris a lot and he gives her nothing. I am so dissapointed with Jeb and Crist, they have let me down over several issues!

[RWR8189]

Here's Pew's final poll from 2002, the generic ballot is fundamentally flawed.

 

Pew Research Center for the People & the Press survey conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. Latest: Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2002. N=1,035 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
					.
"If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held today, would you vote for the Republican Party's candidate or the Democratic Party's candidate for Congress in your district?" If no choice: "As of today, do you lean more to the Republican or the Democrat?"
		Repub- lican	Demo- crat	Other/ Undecided
		%	%	%
	ALL	44	46	10
	Men	47	43	10
	Women	42	48	10
	Whites	49	40	11
	Non-whites	12	85	3
	Among registered voters:
	10/2-6/02	44	46	10
	9/02	44	46	10
	6/02	44	46	10
	2/02	46	45	9
	11/01	44	44	12

 

[Al Simmons]

I hope you're right, but you went wobbly on me with Harris. If she loses by 10% it will be a miracle. I'm hoping the GOP can hold the House, but I think that's 50/50 right now - a MUCH BETTER shot than a few weeks ago...unless the 'Rats have another Foley-like card to play tomorrow....

You are right, the GOP is coming on as security and economy comes back into focus....let's hope we can pick up NJ and MD, maybe MINN in the Senate to set-off what will probably be 3-4 seats lost...

[Rocko]

Carry on, Jon.

John Carrion.

[RasterMaster]

Not from the DNC media....

http://www.moveamericaforward.org/index.php/MAF/FullNewsItem/historic_trip_to_iraq_news_release/

[2111USMC]

In just the last two hours, I've received 1 live call from the RNC and 4 prerecorded voice messages from Republican candidates. The GOTV machine is hitting high gear!

[grannylinedancer]

I think Katherine Harris had every RIGHT to run for that Senate Seat. She has won EVERY single Office, here in Florida, that she has run for....including the PRIMARY for the Senate. WHY should she not be supported as the candidate the VOTERS here in Florida picked? She should have been, and I really hope she DOES write that "Tell All Book" she is planning. I would love to find out who has been behind trying to keep her out of the Senate. Shame on the RNC, the BUSH Brothers and the FL Republican party. I think she has a good chance of winning...we will see!

[LS]

Don't be sure they won't LOSE a House seat or two, net.

We now have five very troubled Dem seats (Barrow and Marshall in GA are now considered by Dem insiders "goners"; Carson in IN, very bad shape, Bean a little better in IL, but still only up a couple, and Melancon in LA can be had. I'm also told there is an OR seat that is vulnerable. And, William Jefferson, D-LA, will NOT be elected outright on election night, so even though he may eventually win it in a runoff, on Tues. night the Dems start down one!

This means that at the outset the Dems are down three (GA + LA). Meanwhile, two of the three IN seats have shifted to us; the CT seats are iffy, but we'll get wins there; and both Delays and Foley's seats are now conceded to the GOP. We'll lose Graf/Kolbe, O'Donnell, and Weldon. So that leaves under 12 seats the Dems can actually gain, plus at least two they lose, maybe five.

[longtermmemmory]

my only concern is one of time.

We have a classic track record of polsters "modifying" their predictions at the last minute to allow them to say they were close when selling their services at the next election.

[paudio]

I don't believe a generic poll is important. However, the Dims and the pundits (of both sides) have been referring to this kind of polls when they talk about 'anti-Bush feelings', and they use those polls as the basis for their "Democrat winning the congress" projections. So, like a domino, since their main assumption has changed, they should alter their projections as well.

[Defiant]

This whole momentum crap is nonsense. We had 18 months of bogus polls, designed to demoralize and push the electorate away from the GOP. We also had occasions when the base was angry with the GOP, as with immigration and when Bush is not strong enough in the war on terror, making nice with Iran, Ted Kennedy and other terrorists. There was never any chance that the GOP voters from the past 5 election cycles had suddenly learned the error of their ways, and decided to become socialist pantywaists.

Instead, they had a generalized dissatisfaction with the GOP, but a disgust with the Dems. They tuned out the election and the endless polls, and refused to answer polls, or if they did, gave the pollsters phony information, just because polls are so damn annoying.

Dems started saying this was going to be their year, and hoped they could create it out of whole cloth, by demoralizing the GOP base, and by a drumbeat of "woe is us" stories about the economy(which is great) and the war (which is keeping us safe and would have succeeded by now had it not been for Democrats).

But there is something that pollsters pretend not to know, and most people don't think about, and it is this: elections turn on demographics, not current events. Married people with two incomes will vote GOP at about 65 percent or higher. Single women will not. Minorities will vote Dem at high rates. Turnout will be lower at the midterms. Turnout will be lower among certain groups--the young, for example.

It is a relatively small pool of votes that is fluid, and subject to switching from voting for Denny Hastert as speaker to voting for Nancy Pelosi just because the NYT harps on Guantanamo for weeks at a time. Change happens slowly--as the nation's demographics change, trends reach a tipping point, and then the dam bursts, as in 1994. There has been no trend to justify a dam bursting the other way in 2006, and there has been no earth-shattering event that would shake up the existing order, either. 9/11 and the war helped add a few liberals to the conservative side, and some of them may have gone the other way recently, but that effect will be seen more in places like NY and CT than in Tennessee and Virginia. So Allen and Corker were never, ever in trouble, except in bizarro world.

External events that can have an impact on voting are things like corruption and scandal, and so Burns was in trouble in MT the same way Toricelli was in trouble in heavily Dem NJ, and Menendez is now. Burns may still pull it out, because his problems are not that bad, but it has an impact that is outside the normal demographic analysis.

The long and short of it is that I said a year ago that the GOP would hold both houses, I said 6 months ago that they would, and I say today that they will. The polling that has been done all this time has been an exercise in grab-assing that is utterly meaningless, and should be shunned among thinking people. It is like reading tea-leaves.

[spacejunkie]

Great post.

I too, concur we retain both houses. I think we're being played royally by the media and pollsters to sway things, since they don't actually have a legitimate platform to stand on.

I hate it though, watching Chris Wallace for instance, when the 'staunchest' republicans keep saying we're in trouble, things aren't good, etc., like Bill Krystol and Brit Hume. Ugh.

[mware]

Atlantic City Press endorsed Kean.

[Bonaparte]

"... if Christ..."

Wouldn't that be Florida Attorney General Crist?

[mware]

By the way the Atlantic County went blue in 04. We may be seeing the tide turn, and it may be a red tide here in Jersey.

[upchuck]

Barrow and Marshall in GA are now considered by Dem insiders "goners"

Good news! I live in South Carolina just across the Savannah River from Augusta, GA. So I see the GA and SC political commercials.

I know nothing about Marshall, but John Barrow, just from his lying commercials about Max Burns, is lower than a snake.

I don't know that much about Max Burns either. But Barrow has been claiming Burns is in favor of the Fair Tax which Barrow labels the "Max Tax." Barrow claims Burns is in favor of a 23% tax INCREASE on all consumer goods, which is true. But Barrow conveniently leaves out all the taxes that would be eliminated by the Fair Tax, let alone the prebate.

Barrow is a slimy sleaze bag.