In Focus: Job & EconomyPosted on 11/03/2006 9:44:35 AM PST by Ooh-Ah
Today, The Government Released New Jobs Figures – 92,000 Jobs Created In October. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4 percent, the lowest rate since May 2001. Payrolls have now increased 470,000 over the past 3 months and more than 1.9 million over the past 12 months. Since August 2003, more than 6.8 million jobs have been created - more jobs than all the other major industrialized countries combined. Our economy has now added jobs for 38 straight months.
The American Economy Remains Strong And Continues To Grow
The Economic Outlook Remains Positive
The President's Tax Cuts Have Helped Our Economy Grow Faster Than Any Other Major Developed Nation. President Bush worked with Congress to cut taxes for everyone who pays income taxes, double the child tax credit, reduce the marriage penalty, substantially cut taxes on small businesses, cut taxes on capital gains and dividends to encourage investment and jobs, and put the death tax on the road to extinction. To keep our economy growing, the President and Republicans in Congress want to make these tax cuts permanent, leaving more money in the hands of American workers, families, and businesses.
Recent Paycheck Growth Increases Have Been Larger Than Those In The 1990s Economic Expansion, Compared Either Over The Past Year Or For The Entire Business Cycle. Real hourly wages for production and non-supervisory workers have increased 2.4 percent in the past 12 months, and broader measures, such as disposable income per capita and hourly compensation, show even larger increases. Falling energy prices helped boost real wages by 1.0 percent in September alone – the largest increase in more than 30 years.
The Deficit Has Been Cut In Half Three Years Ahead Of Schedule. A strong economy has led to historic revenue growth. FY05 revenues were the largest in history, and the FY06 budget deficit was $248 billion, down from an original February projection of $423 billion and lower than 18 of the last 25 years as a percentage of our economy.
The President Has An Aggressive Agenda To Lower The Costs Of Health Care And Energy
The President's Policies Are Helping Make Health Care More Affordable And Accessible. The President worked with Congress to create the Medicare Prescription Drug benefit and initiated reform that is speeding cheaper generic drugs to market. The President has proposed expanding Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and creating Association Health Plans (AHPs) to allow small businesses to band together to buy cheaper insurance.
The President Is Working To Break America's Addiction To Oil And Develop New Sources Of Reliable, Domestic Energy. The President wants to fund new technology to create new sources of fuel, build a reliable domestic supply of alternative fuels, develop new domestic energy resources, and increase conservation. The President is also encouraging the research and development of clean-coal technologies and expanding the safe use of clean, affordable nuclear power.
"We're doomed!"
(Whose turn is it to ping Willie Green?)
Those numbers are pretty impressive, but I wouldn't focus on job growth - it's not that good a story.
According to Money Magazine, job growth needs to be a minimum of about 150,000 per month just to keep up with population growth. In other words, fewer than 150,000 jobs per month, and we're actually losing ground. More and we're gaining.
If you look at the statistics, the 6.8 million jobs created since August 2003 is nearly 180,000 per month (38 months). Pretty good - that's solid job growth. The problem is the trend. If you look at the last 12 months, the 1.9 million translates into 158,000. The 450,000 new jobs over the past three months is exactly 150,000, but the 92,000 in October is very, very bad - much worse than previous months.
In short, monthly job growth over the past:
38 months = 180,000
12 months = 158,000
3 months = 150,000
1 month = 92,000
That's not a good trend. It indicates job growth is slowing over time. The October numbers are quite bad - accounting for population growth, we're losing ground.
I'm no economist, so maybe this is just a seasonal cooling in job growth. Does anyone here have expertise in this area?
More excellent news.
I'm no economist, so maybe this is just a seasonal cooling in job growth. Does anyone here have expertise in this area?
Since you're not an economist and have no expertise, why offer a negative opinion? This is a terrific story and the economy is going gangbusters. If klintoon had these kinds of numbers, the msm would ask the Pope to cannonize the pervert. I know you're not a kool-aid drinker but maybe you've been hanging around too many liberal co-workers. Be careful, purple kool-aid stains the brain.
I'm not an economist but I'm comfortable doing math. I'm looking for some input from those with economics expertise why these recent job numbers are something other than bad, especially October's.
The numbers since 2003 are strong. Very, very good. But the recent figures indicate a slow cooling, with a precipitous drop in October. Why?
When unemployment gets below 5% the pace slows...it gets harder and harder to find someone willing to work. And, newborns aren't in the work force yet.
You don't have to be an economist, but you must employ a basic understanding of statistics when you look at numbers and try to project trends. First, October's numbers will be revised, and probably significantly, over the next two months. Second, this whole report gets adjusted annually as the government tries to square them with the household survey, which has show dramatically higher job growth for the last two or three years. That adjustment for the past year happened last month, or the month before that, I cannot remember, and it showed dramatically more jobs per month. So in quoting these stats, you have to remember that most of your data points have been adjusted, but the last one or two have not been fully adjusted.
One other thing, these numbers swing by almost 50% sometimes as they are adjusted. So, I would not put too much emphasis on the 90000 figure. A few months ago, this same report showed 50000 jobs, but we both know the monthly average for the timeframe was actually about 150000. Next month the figure might be 200000, and this months revised up to 120000, for a two month average of 160,000.
You should never look at 4.4% unemployment and say that the trend is not good. At 4.4% unemployment, many economists would say we are, in effect, at more than full employment.
Good comment - thanks.
I don't focus on unemployment figures since the way they are calculated (not counting those not actively seeking work) is so screwy. I like the advice to wait for revised numbers.
I wonder why they release numbers they know will be revised. What's the point?
Good point, but the percent unemployment figure is pretty unreliable from what I've read. It doesn't count those who have given up on looking for work. They're unemployed in the sense that they don't have a job, but they're not "unemployed" in the sense that they are no actively seeking work.
Hopefully, they don't swing too much. Oftentimes only by 10% or so. When they do not swing too much, then it is good to know. It is a survey, and sometimes the businesses surveyed give them data late and it skews the estimate.
That suffix is a line that was popularized beginning in 2002-2003 timeframe as the Bush job recovery boom began to start. Every newscaster made sure to add the line "but it doesn't count those who have given up."
Sure it doesn't. How could it? It is a number based on filings for unemployment benefits and other job search services. Perhaps someone gave up looking for a job because they found a job and did not bother telling someone at the employment office. Perhaps they started their own business. Perhaps they decided they were better off staying at home with the children and adjusted their lifestyle.
One thing you can count on: if you don't have a job and you and/or your family needs you to have a job, you are not worth the confidence of any employer if you merely give up looking for a job. Those kind of people should be culled from the stats anyway, shouldn't they? I mean, would you want to hire someone like that?
To alleviate those concerns the BLS releases expanded unemployment information every month.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.