[ctpsb]

For those worried about latest polls, esp Zogby, please note:

Zogby and Zogby/Reuters International according to Wall Street Journal online.

Zogby and Zogby/Reuters International according to Wall Street Journal online.

Final poll Nov. 1st one day before election :

Zogby Actual Difference

Iowa Kerry +6% Bush +5% Bush +11% W. Virginia Bush +4.5% Bush +13% Bush +8.5% Florida Kerry +1% Bush +5% Bush +6% Wisconsin Kerry +7% Kerry +1% Bush +6% Tennessee Bush +3.3% Bush +3.3% Bush +6% Oregon Kerry +10% Kerry +4% Bush +6% Arkansas Bush +3.2% Bush +9% Bush +5.8% Washington Kerry +11.2% Kerry +7% Bush +4.2% Michigan Kerry +7% Kerry +3% Bush +4% New Hampshire Kerry +4.5% Kerry +1% Bush +3.5% Pennsylvania Kerry +5% Kerry +2% Bush +3% Missouri Bush +4.2% Bush +7% Bush +2.8% New Mexico Even Bush +1% Bush +1%

And these were supposed to be the cloesely watched battleground states!

Final poll Nov. 1st one day before election :

Zogby Actual Difference

Iowa Kerry +6% Bush +5% Bush +11% W. Virgin Bush +4.5% Bush +13% Bush +8.5% Florida Kerry +1% Bush +5% Bush +6% Wisconsin Kerry +7% Kerry +1% Bush +6% Tennessee Bush +3.3% Bush +3.3% Bush +6% Oregon Kerry +10% Kerry +4% Bush +6% Arkansas Bush +3.2% Bush +9% Bush +5.8% Washington Kerry +11.2% Kerry +7% Bush +4.2% Michigan Kerry +7% Kerry +3% Bush +4% New Hamp Kerry +4.5% Kerry +1% Bush +3.5% Pennsylv Kerry +5% Kerry +2% Bush +3% Missouri Bush +4.2% Bush +7% Bush +2.8% New Mexico Even Bush +1% Bush +1%

And these were supposed to be the cloesely watched battleground states!

[frogjerk]

[MineralMan]

What? You posted the same info three times, and it's not formatted.

[MineralMan]

One day before what election?

[Nancee]

BUMP!!!

This is precisely why I have not and will not give up on Rick Santorum here in Pennsylvania!


Thanks for this post!

Nancee

[WashingtonSource]

This is confusing, but I think I figured it out. Bush did better in the actual election in almost all the battleground states than he did in the last 2 polls by Zogby and/or Zogby/Reuters. He won several states he was predicted to lose.

[philsfan24]

welcome to fr

[RightWhale]

Zogby didn't even ask about politics in today's poll.

[polymuser]

Interesting first post...

[bigjoesaddle]

You are new to FR, so just know we want to read posts that easily make sense. Your's makes my brain work too hard.

[jveritas]

Here you go, now it is easier to understand. Thank you for your work.

Iowa: Zogby Poll: Kerry +6% Actual: Bush +5% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +11%

W. Virginia: Zogby Poll: Bush +4.5% Actual: Bush +13% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +8.5%

Florida: Zogby Poll: Kerry +1% Actual: Bush +5% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +6%

Wisconsin: Zogby Poll: Kerry +7% Actual: Kerry +1% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +6%

Tennessee: Zogby Poll: Bush +3.3% Actual: Bush +3.3% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +6%

Oregon: Zogby Poll: Kerry +10% Actual: Kerry +4% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +6%

Arkansas: Zogby Poll: Actual: Bush +3.2% Bush +9% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +5.8%

Washington: Zogby Poll: Actual: Kerry +11.2% Kerry +7% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +4.2%

Michigan: Zogby Poll: Kerry +7% Actual: Kerry +3% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +4%

New Hampshire: Zogby Poll: Kerry +4.5% Actual: Kerry +1% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +3.5%

Pennsylvania: Zogby Poll: Kerry +5% Actual: Kerry +2% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +3%

Missouri: Zogby Poll: Bush +4.2% Actual: Bush +7% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +2.8%

New Mexico: Zogby Poll: Even Actual: Bush +1% Difference between Poll and Actual: Bush +1%

[jveritas]

Ask the admin moderator if he can re-post yor finding using my format in post # 15.

[MikeHu]

Latest media poll:

"Kerry Wins!"

[PJ-Comix]

Maybe I is stoopid but me no understand your numbers at all.

[murron]

I've said it before. Look at the numbers in the polls. They don't add up to 100%. This was also the case in the 2004 election. They had the election tied at 48-48, which only added up to 96% or George Bush losing to Kerry 48 to whatever. Where were the other 4%? Nader and the other candidates didn't hardly make up 1%. But they never showed Kerry over 48% When the final tally was taken, Bush won 52% to 48%. The pollsters are doing the same thing this time. There is a hidden percentile that for some reason the pollsters are not reporting. Zogby was and is one of the biggest offenders.

[Pacothecat]

Thanks Cliff. I was trying to find this sort of info from the last election.

[LS]

You nailed it. Exactly why I've said all year the polls are completely out of touch, and that for a reasonable estimate of a race, you need to apply the LS Rule, which is to add 5% to the GOP and subtract 5% from the Dem.

Right now, I have Allen, Talent, Corker as "safe." Steele is "ahead" though not safe. Burns and Kean have slight leads. Chafee, DeWine are "tossups," while Bouchard, McGavick, and Santorum "trail slightly."

The question is not if the GOP holds the senate: the question is how many seats they GAIN.

[sr4402]

Polls will not be worth much now and future years

Since Ad Blocking became a reality, fewer people are willing to participate in phone polls.

Push Polling - where the poll is an attack add against or overwhelmingly for a candidate has largely turned off the population for participating in the polls.

Known bias in the polls is turning off the population. It is well known that polls taken in the cities will benefit a person. Polls taken on Weekend will not get family participation (they are out having fun). Poll of unlikely voters will not be accurate. Thus: Phone polls as we know them are and will become less popular and less participated in as time goes on.

[thingumbob]

The Zogby polls are slanted........and full of cr@P.

From 2000 to 2004 I was sent their new polling questions every time they had a new poll and the poll sampling was pretty even between Dimwits, Repubs and Independents...................then suddenly three months before election day in 2004 I was dropped off their list........ Hmmmmmmm, Why?

Short answer: "Zogby was looking to help his preferred Dimwit base?

Our Freeper friend is right when he says Zogby's polls are full of the Special sauce!

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[pabianice]

In 2004 Zogby revealed himself to be an anti-Semitic hatemonger and shill for the Left. He has consistently twisted his polls to under-represent the Right by 5-6 points.