These "polls"

Cliff

[LS]

You nailed it. Exactly why I've said all year the polls are completely out of touch, and that for a reasonable estimate of a race, you need to apply the LS Rule, which is to add 5% to the GOP and subtract 5% from the Dem.

Right now, I have Allen, Talent, Corker as "safe." Steele is "ahead" though not safe. Burns and Kean have slight leads. Chafee, DeWine are "tossups," while Bouchard, McGavick, and Santorum "trail slightly."

The question is not if the GOP holds the senate: the question is how many seats they GAIN.

[jveritas]

You are welcome. Zogby is a joke and so are all the biased media polls.

[PJ-Comix]

Okay. Sorry. I was grouchy looking at those indecipherable numbers.

[sr4402]

Polls will not be worth much now and future years

Since Ad Blocking became a reality, fewer people are willing to participate in phone polls.

Push Polling - where the poll is an attack add against or overwhelmingly for a candidate has largely turned off the population for participating in the polls.

Known bias in the polls is turning off the population. It is well known that polls taken in the cities will benefit a person. Polls taken on Weekend will not get family participation (they are out having fun). Poll of unlikely voters will not be accurate. Thus: Phone polls as we know them are and will become less popular and less participated in as time goes on.

[kylaka]

How about the House? Any nuggets? I'm tracking about 5 lower profile races and the numbers don't add up there either.

[GoMonster]

Tks. You Da Man!:)Much better.

[thingumbob]

The Zogby polls are slanted........and full of cr@P.

From 2000 to 2004 I was sent their new polling questions every time they had a new poll and the poll sampling was pretty even between Dimwits, Repubs and Independents...................then suddenly three months before election day in 2004 I was dropped off their list........ Hmmmmmmm, Why?

Short answer: "Zogby was looking to help his preferred Dimwit base?

Our Freeper friend is right when he says Zogby's polls are full of the Special sauce!

[LS]

You can piece together what's likely happening by looking at some polls, then looking at NRO. DON'T rely on their "poll tracker," because for some stupid reason, they insist on tracking the same polls as the libs use.

If you talk to people who should know, it appears the three NY seats in the house are safe and the NJ seats are better---2/3 now safe; that Negron will win Foley's seat; that the DeLay seat is a tossup, but leaning R; that at least FOUR Dem seats are in big trouble---Barrow and Marshall in GA; Bean in IL; and Carson in IN; but there are more trending that way---the VT open seat, for ex., the OR seat.

Wilson now safe; Roskam safe. Weldon in trouble; Graf (AZ) in trouble. Taylor (NC), once called "a goner" is back on top!

[jveritas]

I have some surprising news regarding Zogby. I just got some information few minutes from someone who last month attended a Zogby private presentation about the elections and Zogby told them that this is the most “difficult elections for him to predict”. He told the attendees that despite a general feeling in the country against President Bush and unease about the war in Iraq, the democrats seem not to benefit a lot and not showing that they will score big victories! I wonder why Zogby does not state this publicly or in the commentary he gives when he posts his polls.

[dynachrome]

"I wonder why Zogby does not state this publicly or in the commentary he gives when he posts his polls."
Should have a sarcasm tag after that one.

[kylaka]

I wonder why Zogby does not state this publicly or in the commentary he gives when he posts his polls.

That's a retorical question, right?

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[jveritas]

Right :)

I was surprised that Zogby will even say something like that in a private presentation.

[Flora McDonald]

Not to worry. You should see some of the stuff I've posted.

[Flora McDonald]

Do you have any insight into the Allen/Webb race in Virginia?

[jveritas]

According to my colleague who attended the meeting Zogby said that Allen is having difficulties but he did not give his opinion on who is going to win in Virginia. However he mentioned to the attendees that the Republican Senators with most troubles are Santorum and DeWine since according to Zogby he thinks that the anti-war/ anti-Bush feelings in these two states is strong.

[kylaka]

Thanks. I'm watching IN-7 Carson/Dickerson (among others). The polls mirror recent past elections which means Carson should pull it out. I'm betting this year will be different, mostly because of the (R) running, Carson's health, and poor constituent service. I like those twofers. I saw Rahm Emanuel claim the other day that there were no endangered Dems. Did it with a straight face too. Well, hey, either way he and Dean can hug each other when it's all over, and let bygones be bygones. I love happy endings.

[LS]

That just sounds to me like Zogs is trying to have it both ways.

But to answer his question, my theory is,

People don't "like" the war . . . except they like the alternative less. It's one of those things like Cowboys fans, who are always crabbing about Bill Parcells as the coach . . . until they start suggesting replacements, and none of them are any good.

I have argued that the "voting booth" logic is this: "Iraq--->not too happy but--->War on Terror--->necessary, but wish I didn't have to fight it, but--->national security--->can't really compromise this--->my kids being killed at a mall by a terrorist=ain't gonna happen on my watch--->Bush/Republicans have kept us safe--->oh well, have to vote for the Republicans. Can't trust Kerry and the Democrats.

[kidd]

Okay. Sorry. I was grouchy looking at those indecipherable numbers.

no, no, no, no.

This is 2006. You need to be Kerresponsible.

It was a botched joke.

[pabianice]

In 2004 Zogby revealed himself to be an anti-Semitic hatemonger and shill for the Left. He has consistently twisted his polls to under-represent the Right by 5-6 points.