MISSILE DEFENSE BRIEFING REPORT

American Foreign Policy Council ^ | 10/27/06 | Ilan Berman, ed.

[bruinbirdman]

GAMING NORTH KOREA’S NEXT MOVE
The regime of Kim Jong-il could have enough plutonium for seven nuclear weapons, and is actively working to weaponize them for use on its ballistic missiles, Reuters (October 26) reports a new intelligence report issued by South Korea’s defense ministry as saying. "It is estimated that (the North) has extracted up to 50kg (110 lb) of plutonium," the report, made public by lawmaker Song Young-sun but so far not confirmed by the South Korean government, reportedly says. "Seven to eight kg of plutonium is needed for one nuclear weapon.” The study also suggests that North Korea has succeeded in manufacturing nuclear weapons weighing between two and three tons, and is now attempting to reduce their weight to under one ton – suitable for delivery via ballistic missiles.

TOKYO MULLS ITS STRATEGIC OPTIONS
Mounting worries about North Korea, meanwhile, are prompting Japan to accelerate its missile defense partnership with the United States. The Agence France Presse (October 19) reports that at a recent meeting in Tokyo, newly installed Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confirmed to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that his government is committed to “strengthen[ing] the Japan-US alliance, including on missile defense." Abe’s government, however, took pains to make clear that it is not seeking a nuclear option in response to the mounting threat from the DPRK. "The government of Japan has no position at all to consider going nuclear," Foreign Minister Taro Aso has told Rice. "There is no need to arm ourselves with nuclear weapons, either."

TENTATIVE U.S. STEPS TOWARD SPACE...
Defense News (October 16) reports that the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) has formulated a new strategy for “space control activities” such as the protection of U.S. satellites from attack. The new STRATCOM initiative stems from the Bush administration’s recently-released National Space Policy, which declares that “[f]reedom of action in space is as important to the United States as air power and sea power.” It appears to be motivated by growing attention to an increasingly sophisticated array of threats to U.S. satellites. According to Representative Terry Everett, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s Strategic Forces Subcommittee, these now include “jamming, laser ‘dazzling,’ micro satellites, direct ascent [anti-satellites], cyber attacks, physical attacks to ground stations and possibly even a nuclear explosion.”

...AMID INERTIA IN EUROPE
European efforts to formulate a space strategy, meanwhile, are not faring as well. Defense News (October 23) reports that a lack of funding and lackluster commitment from EU member states is undermining the continent’s space program - with serious implications for the use of space assets in Europe’s emerging Common Security and Defense Policy. The EU is set to unveil its new space policy in 2007, but observers say important questions remained unanswered, chief among them: “how are the Europeans going to coherently exploit their space assets in times of crises, and by whose authority?”

AN ULTIMATUM FROM MOSCOW
Yuri Baluyevsky, the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, is pressing NATO for a “clear and unambiguous answer” regarding the Alliance’s missile defense plans. The Itar-TASS news agency (October 16) reports that the general is asking Europe to choose: join a joint European-Russian defense system or become “a segment of the U.S. missile defense system without Russia’s participation.” Baluyevsky plans to raise the issue at the upcoming Russia-NATO council in November, the news agency reports.

MISSILE DEFENSE MOMENTUM IN MINSK
Interfax-AVN (October 23) reports that Russia and Belarus are moving to significantly expand their bilateral defense ties. While the common air defense of Belarus has been generally in place since the breakup of the USSR, the news agency reports that Moscow and Minsk are expected to sign a new defense deal in November authorizing the creation of a supplemental “common missile defense system” to protect both countries. The rationale for this new arrangement is clear, according to the news agency; increasingly estranged from Europe, Belarus is eager to bolster its already-robust defense ties with Russia. Moscow, meanwhile, is seeking to preserve and strengthen its hold on its former satellite at a time of growing Western encroachment in the “post-Soviet space.”

[Parmenio]

Another excellent source of information on missile defense is a web site produced by the Claremont Institute:

http://www.missilethreat.com/