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A Moment of Optimism
Powerlineblog ^ | John Hinderaker

Posted on 10/21/2006 3:34:15 AM PDT by Oakleaf

We've acknowledged a lot of bad news for Republican candidates this election cycle, so it won't hurt to take a moment to pass on some (possible) good news. Ken Mehlman wrote today that, contrary to popular assumption, voter intensity among Republicans is at least as high as among Democrats:

In recent days and weeks, the mainstream media have repeatedly claimed that the Republican base is suffering from “low voter enthusiasm.” It is easy to believe a story that is repeated so frequently, but in fact there is ample evidence to the contrary. By many measures, there are strong indications of a right-of-center base that is engaged and committed. First, numerous polls clearly indicate near parity in intensity between Democrats and Republicans. Three recent national surveys—Gallup, Cook/RT Strategies, and our most recent RNC survey conducted by Voter/Consumer Research—all show partisan interest is approximately equal.

In fact, the RNC's own polling shows Republican intensity slightly greater, on the average, than Democratic. Why is this so important? November's election is all about turnout. There are plenty of Republicans and conservatives to keep the House and Senate in Republican hands, if they vote. Most if not all of the polls report numbers that are weighted according to assumptions about how many voters from each party (and independents) will show up. So when you see that a Republican candidate is behind, that generally means that he or she is behind if a considerable number of Republicans are too dispirited to show up. If that assumption is false, then we have little idea how next month's election will turn out. One thing we do know is that the Republicans have better mechanisms in place to identify motivated voters and get them to the polls than the Democrats. So if the two parties' voters are, in fact, equally energized, then Republican candidates may do materially better than current poll numbers suggest.

Another cause for (relative) optimism: while everyone's focus has been on how many seats the Republicans may lose in the House, there are also seats that the Democrats may forfeit. John McIntyire of RealClearPolitics points to several Democratic seats that could change hands:

[T]here is a basket of five seats Republicans are looking at for possible pickups (IL-8, GA-8, GA-12, VT-AL, and IA-3) and the odds would suggest that the GOP may be able to pick up one of these five. The two seats in Georgia, helped by a strong Sonny Perdue at the top of the ticket, are generally thought to offer Republicans their best hope for a pickup. Finally, I turn the floor over to Dan Riehl, who thinks the Republicans are resurgent. I didn't take the time to reproduce Dan's links; check out the original for more:

Are The Dems Blowing It? They're blowing it. If you track blogs and the MSM, blogs often run a week or so ahead of MSM themes. Here's what we have.

With the election over two weeks away, the Dems have started squabbling over an election they might not ever get to have.

Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's prospects for becoming the nation's first female House speaker depend not only on a Democratic victory in November but also on her ability to prevent any Democrats from voting against her -- primarily centrists opposed to her liberal stances.

Is this really the time to be talking up Steny Hoyer as an alternative, given his slavish tendencies?

And another election two years down the road shouldn't be in the headlines right now.

Elizabeth Edwards, wife of White House hopeful John Edwards, says her choices in life have made her happier than Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton _ a possible Edwards' rival for the Democratic nomination.

Today, Rep. Harold Ford in Tennessee may well have done himself in as regards the Senate race. Go to the video - it isn't good. And while possibly an outlier, the latest from Zogby has him down by 7, which fits more with the desperation tactics he's using, confronting Corker and coming out for Lieberman, which he didn't need to do unless he isn't making it with moderates and conservatives in TN.

While not D versus R, it could be a portent of things to come as the Lamont campaign is going from hysterics to crashing to the ground 17 points down. Matt Stoller assures the faithful Lieberman's support is soft (eye-roll) ... but Joe isn't the one who needs a cushion right about now. ***

Look for BushCo. to make a major announcement of a tactical shift in Iraq which will give marginal doubters at least enough hope to bite their lip and hold their nose when they vote. ***

Sherrod Brown has a back tax issue, would be Senate Leader Harry "sand lot" Reid has the land. But there are two weeks to go until the election and the Dems are further away from having a house in Congress than they were last week. The Senate may already have slipped away and I still say Santorum isn't going out without some kind of late major play against Casey - and he is closing, at that.

This isn't the direction the Dems or the media thought things would be going just now. And that is going to make news in the days ahead. Elections always close and it always makes news. The Dems have made the mistake of getting too far out of the gate too early in every recent election and ultimately, they've lost.

This is now showing the early signs of a repeat.

Hope springs eternal. Sometimes, of course, the hopeful turn out to be right.


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: elections; votegop

1 posted on 10/21/2006 3:34:16 AM PDT by Oakleaf
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To: Oakleaf
"In recent days and weeks, the mainstream media have repeatedly claimed that the Republican base is suffering from “low voter enthusiasm.” It is easy to believe a story that is repeated so frequently...."

The MSM - spewing out the BS that some American's just won't spew.

2 posted on 10/21/2006 3:39:22 AM PDT by patriot_wes (Pray for the peace of Jerusalem - may they prosper who love thee...Ps 122:6)
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To: Oakleaf

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1723348/posts posted by Uncledave has the full text of the Dan Riehl blog noted in the above.


3 posted on 10/21/2006 3:44:39 AM PDT by Oakleaf
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To: Oakleaf

Well, in that case there's nothing to worry about. Except for the 'pubbies figuring out that if they don't have to worry about conservatives, they may as well move left to attract more voters, of course.


4 posted on 10/21/2006 4:07:33 AM PDT by Grut
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To: Oakleaf
One good motivation to go vote is to see the anguish on the Democrats face come Wednesday morning...

If both houses are held, Democrats are going to be totally distraught. They're so certain that they're going to win that they will be totally crushed. Add to that, considering all the constant bad news regarding Iraq, the WOT and Republicans in general, if they can't win then they're really screwed.
5 posted on 10/21/2006 4:14:58 AM PDT by DB (©)
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To: Grut

Maybe they're having their "come to Jesus" moment...


6 posted on 10/21/2006 4:15:49 AM PDT by DB (©)
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To: DB
One good motivation to go vote is to see the anguish on the Democrats face come Wednesday morning...

If the Democrats do lose, then we will have one more reason to conclude that the MAINSTREAM MEDIA has lost its power to change minds, and that is HUGE.

I met a colleague for an after-work beer (or two) yesterday, and the TV in the bar was on CNN. The sound wasn't on but one could easily see that, for the entire hour we were there, wall-to-wall Republican bashing was the order of the day. Doom and gloom. Serious, somber faces all. Intense gesturing and hand movements, bent on driving home their points.

With a Republican hold on both houses this time, Democrats may be able to at some point get off the floor and make a comeback, but the media won't survive it, this time, because not only have they openly and unabashedly shilled for Democrats, they have staked their credibility on a prediction as to HOW republicans will lose-through the existence of a lack of voter enthusiasm. A Republican victory will be taken by viewers as not a miscalculation on the part of the media, but as exactly what it is, an attempted ruse. Even DEMOCRATS will have a hard time paying attention to them when this is over.

7 posted on 10/21/2006 4:43:52 AM PDT by wayoverontheright
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To: wayoverontheright
"I met a colleague for an after-work beer (or two) yesterday, and the TV in the bar was on CNN."

Hah! I had EXACTLY the same experience! Like in your account, the sound was off and the jukebox blaring, and they had other TV's turned to other channels (mostly sports). My buddy immediately noticed the Communist News Network coverage and remarked on it (my back was to the screen). I began to watch. I noticed the relentless in~your~face partisan coverage with the dour expressions when they would talk about the President, and the brighter faces when they featured what;s his name from Illinois (barak?).

And then I noticed one other thing - no one else was paying any attention whatsoever to the CNN reports. The baseball game and even the obscure car race were more interesting (all with sound off) in the bar. Was it the audio that made the difference? I don't think so.

The bar crowd didn't appear to GAS. The bar had recently changed management and were working hard to attract a different and younger crowd. They had (at least partially) succeeded. The average age was <30 and a mix of working-class and the new-age "don't ask me where I get my money" class of youts.

It was clear (to me) that they were either indifferent and more interested in nonpolitical stuff, or were toilet-drinkers who just accepted the party line and didn't see need to explore any of it further.

In my state (Washington) we have a Senatorial race (cantvotewell vs. McGavick) and a couple of House races. Not one of the candidates is remarkable (on either side) except for Baghdad Jim McDermott who is remarkable for his traitorous behavior pre-Iraq war and who runs virtually unopposed (the state GOP selected a former Socialist to run against him!).

Our candidate for the Senate - McGavick - is playing the "nice guy" angle and so far it's working for him (he's finishing last). His opponent is dishing dirt and behaving in typically low-life Dhimmicrat fashion. He has surprised me be actually defending himself, but I believe it to be an exercise in futility (no matter - I intend to vote for him anyway).

My point is that, while the LSM is providing unprecedented levels of support for the liberals, I don't know to what extent it matters since so many of the "great unwashed" simply don't care.
8 posted on 10/21/2006 9:22:26 AM PDT by rockrr (Never argue with a man who buys ammo in bulk...)
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To: Oakleaf

bump


9 posted on 10/21/2006 10:41:15 AM PDT by Christian4Bush ("Ma'am, you don't have to thank us. You just go beat him for us." Soldier to Irey re: Murtha)
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