Posted on 10/17/2006 12:30:24 PM PDT by Incorrigible
BY JOHN FARMER
CLEVELAND -- Nowhere this year is the decline in Republican midterm election fortunes more evident than here in Ohio.
For close to two decades, the Buckeye State has been the most solidly Republican big state outside the South. During most of that time, both houses of the Legislature, most of the 88 county courthouses and the lion's share of state judicial seats, a big majority of the state's congressional delegation and both U.S. Senate seats have been in GOP hands. And it has been 20 years since a Democrat has been elected governor.
The Republican monopoly, managed by perhaps the most efficient GOP machine in the country, mirrors the dominance the party enjoys in Washington, where it controls the White House, Congress and most of the federal judiciary.
Barring an "October surprise," however, that domination could change dramatically if polls hold up.
The Iraq war, President Bush's low popularity ratings and a dismal view of Congress amplified by the Mark Foley page scandal are burdens for Republicans here as elsewhere. But Ohio Republicans face special problems -- a stagnant economy and the record of Gov. Bob Taft, whose administration has been plagued by corruption and who personally pleaded guilty to taking illegal gifts. Taft's approval rating is mired in the low teens.
It's no surprise then that Democrats are heavily favored to capture the Ohio governor's office. But they also lead narrowly in the race for a U.S. Senate seat now held by a two-term Republican, Sen. Mike DeWine, and are unexpectedly competitive in races for at least three U.S. House seats currently in GOP hands. Two of these seats are among five nationally that have attracted the most campaign spending.
Friday's guilty plea by veteran Republican Rep. Robert Ney to charges relating to bribes he took from influence peddler Jack Abramoff was yet another blow to the GOP's image here. Ney withdrew from his re-election race in August.
The fear of Republicans in Washington is that the sudden show of Democratic strength in Ohio, with its history as a bellwether state in national elections, could be an omen for GOP fortunes elsewhere.
Republicans here make no attempt to paint a rosier-than-reality picture. In Columbus, John McClelland, communications director of the Ohio Republican Central Committee, cited local conditions, Bush's problems in Washington and the Iraq war in describing the climate for Republicans as "difficult."
"It's not impossible" for Republicans to win, he said, "but it is difficult."
The key to Democratic hopes is Ted Strickland, a congressman from southern Ohio who's a near-prohibitive favorite to end the long Democratic drought at the gubernatorial level. His poll lead over his GOP rival, Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell, has been in double digits for months.
If Strickland's lead lasts, Democrats here say, it will help Democrats down the ballot, especially in the race for the U.S. Senate, where DeWine, a moderate conservative, is running neck and neck with Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown, a conventional liberal who represents a suburban district in the Cleveland area.
The Senate contest here is seen by both parties as critical to determining whether Democrats gain the six seats they need to become the Senate majority in the next Congress.
The hurdle Democrats face in Ohio is the absence in much of the state of anything resembling an effective party organization.
"That's what happens when you're out of control in Columbus (state government) for 20 years," said Tim Hagan, the Democratic nominee for governor four years ago and currently a Cuyahoga (Cleveland and suburbs) County commissioner. "No patronage, no party," Hagan said, "and without jobs and the power of the purse you can't sustain a party organization, you can't raise money, especially when you've been out of power as long as we have."
The Democratic Party's decline nationally has occurred simultaneously with the loss of governors' offices over the last 15 years, especially in the largest states, like Ohio, with the most Electoral College votes and the most money. Besides Ohio, Democrats this year have targeted governor's offices in New York, Massachusetts and Maryland now held by Republicans as a step toward improving the party's presidential prospects in 2008. They're favored in all four states.
For all their new energy and activity, Democrats can't win here on their strength of their own base among labor, minorities and social and economic liberals. They need Republican defections -- and there are signs that's occurring.
Charles "Rocky" Saxbe, a lawyer in Columbus, is a lifelong Republican whose father was a U.S. senator from Ohio and U.S. attorney general in the Nixon years. But he's openly supporting Strickland, he said, for reasons involving the scandal-scarred record of the Taft administration and what he called "the shrill message on values" of the Bush administration.
He was especially critical of Karl Rove, Bush's political guru, and what Saxbe called "Rovian scorched earth" campaign tactics. They've worked in past elections, Saxbe said, but "they've begun to backfire."
Blackwell, the GOP candidate for governor, symbolizes what Saxbe sees as a too-far-right Republican message. An African-American and once a black-power advocate, Blackwell today is a fierce opponent of abortion rights, gun control and stem cell research. He's a favorite of the Christian right, a major part of the Ohio Republican base which, in many cases, operates openly out of evangelical churches.
Both the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races here have produced signature issues and real policy choices. Strickland and Blackwell offer competing plans to spark the state economy -- Blackwell emphasizes business tax cuts, Strickland spending for education and job training. Ohio has lost some 300,000 jobs, mostly in manufacturing, during Bush's tenure; the state's unemployment rate runs about a point above the national average.
In the Senate race, Republican DeWine and Democrat Brown are starkly different personalities -- the bespectacled DeWine soft-spoken and mild, Brown crisp and forceful. While critical of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, DeWine backs the Bush policy in Iraq and emphasizes the threat of terrorism. Brown, while refusing to set a date for a U.S. troop drawdown, is sharply critical of Bush's conduct of the Iraq war and sees it as diverting assets and energy from the fight against terrorism.
The overriding impression, however, is the candidates and their differences are overshadowed by the widespread reaction to two men not on the ballot -- President Bush and Gov. Taft -- and the record of events in Washington and Columbus the last few years.
Oct. 17, 2006
(John Farmer is national political correspondent for The Star-Ledger of Newark, N.J. He can be contacted at jfarmer@starledger.com)
Not for commercial use. For educational and discussion purposes only.
C'mon Ohio! I would hate to see former NJ State Attorney and lunk-headed liberal John Farmer be right!
I'm sick of all the pessimism. Notwithstanding the drumbeat from the RATS and their media handmaidens, we can win this election. First step is to turn our own attitudes around.
The "negative Republican story" blitz that we are seeing is unprecedented and will only become more strident as we draw nearer to election day. They are meant to instill defeatism, doubt and doom into the rank and file Republican Party so they won't come out to vote. If this tactic works we will only see worse in 2008.
GOP is poised to blow the DEMS away in FL and possibly CA as well
Can't wait.
Ain't gonna work.
The "negative Republican story" blitz that we are seeing is unprecedented and will only become more strident as we draw nearer to election day. They are meant to instill defeatism, doubt and doom into the rank and file Republican Party so they won't come out to vote. If this tactic works we will only see worse in 2008.
_________________
Dems tried the same tactic with the 2004 presidential "false exit polls", but it failed miserably. Dems couldn't understand how Rove managed to turn out the vote so effectively. We know the obvious: Democrats are attempting the same voter suppression techniques. They want to discourage us every chance they get. I'm going to frustrate the daylights out of them soon. ;0)
Commie sherry brown thanks you for your vote and Blackwell is not a lost cause, but nice try at trying to suppress the GOP vote.
Ain't gonna work, troll.
Look at it this way. As Kwai Chang used to say, when attacked, one must merely survive in order to win.
Even if we lose 5 Senate seats and 14 House seats, we still win. The Dems have to take control to win.
Agreed. This is all "rathering" the content (it's made up from whole cloth!).
Look at the FR board and parse the "headlines" - on OPINION pieces:
"Foley mess and GOP..."
"Discontent with GOP..."
"GOP Fears..."
It's strateegery that good conservatives should see through...so let's start seing through it.
I went out and purchased my Guy Fawkes mask so I can infiltrate the revolution and be a disrupter!
Look at the FR board and parse the "headlines" - on OPINION pieces:
"Foley mess and GOP..."
"Discontent with GOP..."
"GOP Fears..."
It's strateegery that good conservatives should see through...so let's start seeing through it.
_____________
Exactly right :0)
Speaker nancy pelosi and impeachment is the result of you vote! Congrats!
LLS
For more, go to http://www.gop.com/blog/. You'll find this: "RNC spokesman Aaron McLear told [ABC] that 'The assertion that the RNC is pulling out of Ohio is not accurate. We have been and will continue to assert a considerable level of support for Sen. DeWine.' While another Republican Party official added, 'We have spent more money in Ohio than any other state and that level of spending will continue through Election Day.'
Seems obvious to me that the MSM is attempting to suppress the vote in key races by making up stories of gloom and doom.
WE'VE BEEN HERE BEFORE EH?
Can't wait.
Me, either! I don't have a crystal ball, but I just don't think the election is going down the way the so-called pundits are calling it. All of these "polls" are so biased and favor the RATs, that naturally, they are going to predict a RAT blow-out. When the RATs don't take both the House and the Senate, we are really going to hear some nasty stuff! (Wonder what Carville will put over his head this time??!!)
Anecdotal evidence that the polls are manipulated:
I know at least 5 persons who have been asked to participate in a phone survey in the past 2 months. Each said, "no". They are a mix of conservative and liberal.
I participated in a survey about 2 months ago and did so with my tin-foil hat while excerpting talking points from DU.
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