Posted on 10/16/2006 12:12:55 PM PDT by smoothsailing
WHY DOESN'T JACK WANT TO DEBATE? REASON NUMBER 21: HE DOESN'T WANT ANYONE TO KNOW HE'S VOTED HIMSELF 12 CONSECUTIVE PAY RAISES
Monday, October 16, 2006
(MONONGAHELA, October 16) -- Washington County Commissioner and Pennsylvania 12th district Republican Congressional nominee Diana Irey -- responding to Jack Murtha's refusal to meet with her to debate the issues -- today released this statement:
"Why is Jack Murtha scared to debate me? Two leading newspapers in our district -- the Washington Observer-Reporter, and Jack Murtha's own hometown newspaper, the Johnstown Tribune-Democrat -- have now urged him to debate. Several TV stations have offered to air the debate, so that the public can tune in for themselves and see the contrasting visions we have. And the League of Women Voters has offered to sponsor and set up the debate.
"Yet Jack Murtha refuses. His official response was, 'My record's out there for everyone to see … I've done it the same way all the time.'
"Of course, Jack Murtha is counting on the fact that everyone in the district thinks he's the same old Jack Murtha they always knew. But we know otherwise. As I've pointed out before, if you think the Jack Murtha of 2006 is the same Jack Murtha you've been supporting for the last three decades, you don't know Jack -- and for proof, you can visit YouDontKnowJack.org to read up on the Jack Murtha you never knew.
"As I said last week, the only reasonable conclusion one can reach is that Jack Murtha is flat-out scared to debate me. He knows I will hold him accountable for his record, and for his behavior as our Congressman. And he knows that debating me would be a sure-fire loser for his campaign.
"But just because Jack Murtha is scared to debate me doesn't mean the voters of the 12th District should be denied the information they would have received had Jack Murtha been willing to meet to discuss the issues. So today, and for the remaining days of this campaign, I will offer one reason per day why Jack Murtha is scared to debate me. There are 21 days left to campaign, so I will offer 21 reasons.
"Reason #21 that Jack Murtha is scared to debate me: he doesn't want anyone to know that HE HAS VOTED HIMSELF TWELVE CONSECUTIVE PAY RAISES."
-- 30 -- Paid for by Diana Irey for Congress www.irey.com
Vote for IREY bump!
I show up and everyone goes to bed!
;*)
G'Night smooth and Red, see y'all tomorrow.
I'm not turning in yet Justa. :-)
Fooled you! (Teehee!)
IMPORTANT!!! See post 1089.
Naw. I'm a night owl.
I'm just trying to come up with something else that's impressive to post on this thread. ;O)
I think I have an idea...mebbe...
Good to see you, rw! You've been plenty impressive already.
What is happening with the other one?
I've got your two assessments you made that Red posted filed for use this coming week if I need them. They are both excellent posts, hope that's okay with you two.
How's about this? A little long, but...
The only lingering doubt I have regarding the 'projection' that Gary and I have worked out is this: "Will the traditional Democrats in the district prefer pork to change?" Recent history says they might, but demographics and current events say otherwise. The average voter in the district knows that the primary beneficiaries of Murtha's supposed largess are those who already have money. In view of his many anti-American comments over the last eighteen months, this will be a factor in voter thinking at the "grassroots" level.
Pork aside, every indication is that the voters in the district are not happy with Mr. Murtha. Also, the last three years in Pennsylvania politics has trended towards "Kick the bastards out" when it comes to elections. (It is for this reason alone that Santorum is in any danger.) While the PA-12 demographic is primarily Democrat in its political affiliations, it is very patriotic. Except for a few small pockets in suburban areas, these are not liberal, big city Democrats.
The Independent vote will be important in PA-12. I do not have an exact count of their numbers. In that district this year, they will tend to vote against the incumbent in any case. This will be a trend nation-wide. Based upon the demographics and the issues, I believe that our margin of error will reveal that Irey will receive more votes than what we have allowed for in this model. The Bush-Kerry split in '04 was at the back of our minds in working out our projection, but was not a part of our calculations. It is, however, what we would call an "indicator."
I fully expect a higher turn-out among Veterans and Republicans than among Democrats in that district. Murtha's stand on the issues over the last year and a half are completely against the reasons Democrats were voting for him in the past. His voting record reflects this.
To play with the numbers without taking numerous other factors and "indicators" into consideration is quite fun, but it is almost folly. For example: To expect Democrat voters in that district to vote for Murtha by a 90% margin this year is pure fantasy, no matter their turn-out. The only time in the past when they have voted for him by 90% margins is...when he was the only candidate in the race.
If the Irey campaign continues to work as hard as they have, right up until the last voting booth opens, I fully expect her to win, and handily. It is not outside the realm of possibility that she can win with 60% of the vote.
Had Murtha kept his mouth shut and kept bringing the pork home, and had Irey not been the candidate that she was and is, this race would go to Murtha 60-40 or even 70-30. Since we are faced with the opposite scenario, however... it is all about demographics and issues.
You have to do a detailed study of the demographics of the district. A working knowledge of the history of the state is also in order. From Phillip's War to the present.
As a part of how Gary and I have watched this race, we've made a few phone calls and talked to people on the ground in the district over a period of several months. We've traded emails with candidates, journalists, locals and pundits in PA. I've read every local newspaper - every day - for weeks... I've visited the campaign websites of almost every candidate in PA. I've visited the websites and blogs of every political activist and pundit in PA. I've also visited town, city and state websites. I've also read up on local politics for the last three years. Then, I washed and repeated...
Republican Party 'operatives' outside of the state, even those in the state but outside of the district, are still working from a seventies, eighties and nineties paradigm. That paradigm has changed in very important and fundamental ways. Most people have yet to pick up on the ramifications. Part of that change is due to 9-11. Part of that change is due to the exponentially increasing power of the internet.
From this point in history, there is no such thing as a "safe" incumbent. As important as 'campaign warchests' are, they are no longer a primary indicator of who will win what race.
There are numerous other factors that I took into consideration as well. Too numerous to list here and without getting paid for spending the time doing so. ;O)
The only thing that will throw a wrench into my numbers is if the locals prefer their pork... It is a part of their profile, but I'm betting that their patriotism trumps that part of their profile. Patriotism in that demographic outweighs money every time. Keep in mind that - except for small pockets of the population - these are not "San Francisco" or "New York" Democrats. They are JFK/Reagan Democrats.
Additionally, this year, many of them are "Brendan Loy" Democrats. ...and during the last three years in the state the voters have gotten a taste of "incumbent blood." Across the state - during the last three years - between two and three hundred (closer to three hundred IIRC) incumbents were kicked out of office by voters, or else "voluntarily retired" before they could be kicked out of office by the voters.
Bones
I got it into the hands of a producer friend in Nashville on Friday. A good guy who'd love to help mash Murtha. I have to call him tomorrow for an update on progress. I'll keep you posted!
Not a problem.
Gary Gross and I are pretty confident.
Blame the numbers mostly on me - keeping in mind that it is based upon a 60% 'scalable model' for voter turn-out - but Gary and I both worked on the the analysis. He talks funny, but if he were a pencil in a box, he'd be one of the sharper ones...(Well, if we're goin' public, we're takin' our snark with us.) :O)
Just to give ya a clue, he's been getting hits from the Big Boys...the Pentagon, the DoD, K Street, you name 'em...
http://www.letfreedomringblog.com/
Thank you much, rw. I for one think you two have hit the nail on the head and I know others feel the same. The common sense factor alone will sway some of the naysayers.
ROTFLOL! Another fantabulous Irey Funnies, Red!!!
NO SOUP FOR YOU JAZ!!! ;*)
Many thanks for bringing me the keys so I had time to get ready!
WooHoo! Looking forward to the pics!!!
the city fine
Let us know if you need bail money!
LOL! I forgot all about the time change. Thanks!
Thank you for another great analysis rw!
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