Home Sales Observe Largest Decline Since 1996 (California

CBS 2 news ^ | 10/14/06

[finnman69]

(CBS) IRVINE The unsold inventory of new homes in Orange County is at the highest level since 1996, according to an economic forecast released Friday in Irvine.

Through August, sales of existing homes in Orange County were off 29 percent compared to the same period a year ago, the largest year-over-year decline, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast: Orange County Economic Outlook for 2007.

The rate of sales over the last five months have been "brutally low," with Southern California home sales falling to their lowest level in nine years last month, according to the forecast.

[finnman69]

Never mind the source, this is the beginning. It's Buyer vs Seller, and the sellers are going to blink first.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

I sold in Irvine back in April. WHEW!!!!!!!!!!

[CyberAnt]

This is good - the prices needed to come back to reality.

I'm hoping they continue long enough that I can get a really good deal.

[finnman69]

UCLA Anderson Forecast: Orange County Economic Outlook for 2007:

there is a "growing notion that this year's sales decline is the roughest, most sudden correction ever observed in the housing market."

"Our state forecast looks for these trends to continue in the next two years," the report said. "Real estate sectors will continue to decline, but with no other sectors looking vulnerable to job loss in the near future, the net result will be a slowdown, not a recession. In the absence of recession, statewide home prices are unlikely to experience significant declines like those seen in the 1990s."

The report noted that what usually happens when a real estate market bubble bursts "is that sales just dry up" because buyers won't buy homes at the listed price and sellers are unwilling to cut their prices. It described the result as "the economic equivalent of Chinese water torture" -- with the decline in prices starting slowly but lasting a long time.

[finnman69]

you timed it perfect

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

All boomings have their endings.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

Praise God. We are now in TX with our new house supposed to be complete in mid Dec.

[martin_fierro]

Sunnyvale - Sunnyvale
CA, 94085

Property Details
Living Area  	3,000  SQ. FT.
Main Features
Type  	Multi-Family
Floors  	1 Story
Listing Status  	For Sale
County  	Santa Clara
Year Built  	1941
Zoning  	R2
Lot Size  	Lot: 8,000+ Sq Ft to .25 Acre

Price  	$1,350,000

[finnman69]

http://nctimes.com/articles/2006/10/13/news/top_stories/23_09_3410_12_06.txt

Foreclosures up dramatically in SD, Riverside counties

By: PATRICK WRIGHT and ANN PERRY - Staff writers

Foreclosure activity has shown a dramatic increase in San Diego and Riverside counties, far outpacing most of California and the rest of the nation, according to a foreclosure tracking firm, RealtyTrac.

The large disparity is probably because of the cooling real estate market in what is one of the most expensive regions of the country, according to one local economist.

San Diego County had 4,069 properties in some stage of foreclosure for the quarter that ended in September, compared with 970 properties for the same quarter in 2005, an increase of 319 percent. Riverside had 4,403 such properties for the most recent quarter, versus 1,297 for the same quarter in 2005, an increase of 239 percent.

RealtyTrac, an online real estate site (www.realtytrac.com) records the number of homes that have entered some stage of foreclosure: defaults, auctions and real estate owned properties (those that have been foreclosed upon and repurchased by a bank). A property is in default when the owner has failed to make mortgage payments, a step leading to foreclosure.

Both San Diego and Riverside counties showed much higher rates of increase of properties in a stage of foreclosure than both the state and the nation. From the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2006, the rate of increase was 104 percent in California and 25 percent for the entire country.

[Captiva]

Shocker.

The next big thing will be tulip bulbs I hear.

[finnman69]

bwahahahahaha

I hope a flipper bought that for $850,000 and rides it all the way to foreclosure.

[FairOpinion]

"However, few markets have experienced price declines, and in many areas, selling values for homes continued to rise as recently as September, according to the forecast.

The median value for all existing home sales in the county has increased 3.5 percent this year. Compared to the previous August, median selling value is off 2.5 percent.

=====

Oviously the buying frenzy was not sustainable, but the fact that selling prices are either still rising, or only showing a slight decline shows that there is not housing crash.

[Captiva]

K4Harty exclaimed:
I sold in Irvine back in April. WHEW!!!!!!!!!!

yeabut did you move to the Midwest or are you renting until the bottom hits in Cali and then purchasing?

This Gators at Tigers game is starting off GOOD

[GOP Poet]

Never mind the source, this is the beginning. It's Buyer vs Seller, and the sellers are going to blink first.

Iliked the way your phrased that :-)

[Captiva]

never mind... I see you moved to the big Texas - the last state of 50 in terms of price appreciation! Ohio is 49th...

[Captiva]

I hope a flipper bought that for $850,000 and rides it all the way to foreclosure

Why?

[finnman69]

it's not a crash yet, it's just beginning

people are starting to do anything to sell their homes. That is anything but really cut prices substantially. That comes next. Also, builders are now throwing on all these 'freebies' such as upgrades, cars, etc. Why re they doing it? so they can keep up the comparable prices for the homes they already sold but are actually already underwater.


Example of a desperate seller

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/bell/20061014-9999-7m14bell.html

Why was Angel McCormick standing at a busy intersection dressed in a duck costume the other day?

If sign-spinning youngsters can get the attention of motorists for housing development sales, McCormick figured she could do the same for her four-bedroom house in Murrieta.

The slowing real estate resale market has hit homes in the Murrieta-Temecula area especially hard because of the plethora of new developments in south Riverside County. Prices are plummeting, and unsold inventory is mounting.

With her husband's work as a resort executive taking them to Colorado, McCormick decided to sell their house herself to save the real estate commission and try to break even on their investment.

She held her “For Sale” sign while wearing the bright yellow duck outfit for nearly 11 hours over four days on various well-traveled streets near her home. It brought her lots of smiles and waves, one unappreciated hand gesture, three requests for fliers, three phone queries and one house tour by a couple who followed her home. Despite McCormick's ingenuity and a few low-ball offers, however, her house remains on the market.
She has dropped her price range to $535,000-$547,000, even though a slightly smaller home nearby sold early last month for $595,000. Her frustration, especially with aggressive real estate listing agents, is mounting after five fruitless weeks. Nevertheless, she's determined to hang in there.

“We don't want to make money on this home. We just want to pay the house off and make the move out of state for my husband's job,” she says.

[finnman69]

because the flippers are partly responsible for driving prices to an unsustainable level. Free markets are great, btu a lot of greedy and stupid flippers are getting badly burned.

[Triggerhippie]

That is outrageous. 1.3 for that old place?

[justche]

But....according to local news - prices are up. Slower sales, higher prices - seller's aren't blinking yet.